Patriots @ Detroit(+7)
The Lions have been pretty good against the spread this year and the Pats are only really awesome on the road. On the other hand, the Lions have a history of getting just killed on Thanksgiving, and no Stafford, and the Pats are in a tight divisional race. No chance the Pats lose, but will they cover? I think the spread is just right because I feel a push is likely here. If there’s a stronger force at work here than the Lions being awful on Turkey Day, I don’t know what that is. Pats.
Saints @ Dallas(+4)
Tough game to pick. The Cowboys seem rejuvenated but the Saints are playing well, too. I do think Dallas will keep it close but not quite close enough to cover. I think the Saints want a little payback for last year, so I’ll take them to cover.
Bengals @ New Jersey Jets(-9)
The Jets are a lot better, no doubt about it. However, that’s a lot of points and the Jets really have been keeping it exciting lately. Just to riverside Al, I’ll take the Bungles and the truckload of points. Hopefully the Jets will be looking past this game.
From Al in email:
Patriots at Detroit (+7)
Yes, it’s a different Lions team, but they’re still losing and they still have that awful record on T-day. It seems that their only weapon is Megatron without Best and Stafford. 7 points is a lot, but I’ll take the Pats to cover (secretly hoping they lose so they lose pace with the Jets).
Saints at Dallas (+4)
Dallas, on the other hand, has an awesome record on Thanksgiving. And they’re playing better. But the Saints are Red Hot right now. I’m going with New Orleans. Give the points.
Bengals at New York (-9)
The Bengals gave up 43 points to the Bills. They’ve given up. They have no pass rush and two of their starting DBs are out today. That will let up some of the pressure on Sanchez. They also can’t stop the run. On the other side, the Jets happen to have two shutdown corners. Since that’s the Bengals biggest strength, they seem to have no hope. I think (and hope) this will be a blowout. I’ll give the big number reluctantly.