So, recently a couple friends of mine have asked me for my take on this year’s Michigan football team, who of course I’ve been watching intently this year. So, I’m answering blog-style.
First, I want to start off by saying that the Michigan-Notre Dame game was hands-down the best three and half hours I’ve spent in front of a television in ages. When Brady “Overrated” Quinn fumbled late and the Michigan D-linesman was chugging toward the end zone I was rooting him on enthusiastically. My wife asked why, since the game was about over and they already had a big lead, did it possibly matter? I just had to laugh. Beating up Notre Dame will never, ever get old, if only because we don’t do it enough. I still hate Lou Holtz when I see him on ESPN’s scoreboard show, but maybe that’s only because of the rocks in his mouth. (Seriously, listen to the guy talk…)
Anyway, on to the team. They have, of course, looked very strong. If they play the rest of the seaon like they played the ND game, or the second half against Wisconsin, or the first half against Minnesota, then I think there are very few teams who could hang with them. Given the quality of the rest of their schedule, only Iowa should be able to play even within 10 points of Michigan the until the annual battle with Ohio State.
The problem, of course, is that they’re Michigan, which means they’re prone to lapses and play far beneath that level, so anything can happen (see, for example, any game against Notre Dame in 87-91, the Kordell Stewart game, several games from last year including the bowl game, and so on). My buddy Karl pointed out that so far they’ve run the ball well and thrown deep well, but haven’t shown anything in the short passing game. The D-line looks great, but it’s not clear how good the linebackers and secondary really are. Rivas (the placekicker) is always an adventure, and I don’t mean that in a good way. So how good are they really?
I have to say, on offense they remind me of the 1970s Steelers: run the ball until the defense commits a safety to stopping the run, then throw deep. Henne has shown some amazingly perfect deep balls this year and Manningham seems to be problematic for college DBs right now, especially without safety help. He seems to double-move better than most college wideouts; on the TD against Notre Dame where scored on an out-and-up the corner bit so hard on the out I thought he might lose his jo…err, cleats.
Henne has completed 69 passes thus far, with 5 going to Hart and 13 to tight ends. That’s 26%. Not a lot of short throws, but maybe just enough to keep defenses honest. Frankly, I’d rather be able to run the ball on 3rd and 3 than have to pass every time, which is what they did last year. Michigan has 226 rushing attempts and 114 passing attempts so far this season. That’s a ratio I’m happy with. Do they really need a short passing game to win? I’m not sure.
I’m much more concerned about the Michigan DBs. The secondary certainly didn’t impress in the second half against the Gophers. I have to think that’s where the Michigan D is the most vulnerable. They certainly seem to get pressure on the quarterback and have been very stout against the run. I imagine Iowa’s Drew Tate will have seen the film on the Minnesota game, so I have some concerns there. And yes, if any game comes down to a late field goal, I think “be afraid” is indeed the order of the day.
So, what’s the upshot of all this? Well, yes, I can easily imagine Michigan going into the Ohio State game undefeated. But, if I’ve learned anything in my quarter-century of following Michigan football, it’s that they rarely live up to the early-season promise (in seasons where they have some). But I do think this is the most promising team since the ‘97 championship team. (That’s not too hard; frankly, my opinion was that no team starting John “batted down at the line of scrimmage” Navarre ever had all that much promise.)
Then, of course, there’s that big game in November. OSU looks like a juggernaut this year, plus the game’s in Columbus, plus the Buckeyes have really had our number since Tressel took over. All bad. The Maize and Blue were certainly ineffective stopping Troy Smith and Ted Ginn last year, something the rest of college football seems to be running into this year. Right now if OSU were to play Michigan in Columbus and I had to bet my life on it, I’d bet OSU, giving points. I have to think if they are indeed both undefeated it’ll be #1 vs. #2 or #3 and it will be the biggest non-Bowl game of the year even without the rivalry. The loser should still get a BCS bid. But we’re a long way from that kind of talk.
I just hope the Wolverines don’t screw it up vs. State this weekend. That would be so awful, and yet so like them. Coach ‘em up, Lloyd, and keep their eyes on the prize! Go Blue!