OK, first a long-overdue record update.

By virtue of my best week of the entire season, Week 14, I closed the gap a little tiny bit. When I last updated, I was down by 20 games. The current standings are 131-141-5 to 150-125-5, so hey, I’m only 19 games behind now! Ugh. Yeah, so Al wins the season, which we’ve known since, what, Week 6? Note that if Al was actually playing against Vegas, he’d have cleaned up this season.

So, even though it’s entirely academic at this point:

Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints(+5)
I, of course, hate the Colts and am also obligated to root for the great story that is the Saints’ season. However, I’m not sure that’s a rational pick. I mean, really, the Colts are just better. However, the Freeny thing is big, and then there’s the other injury everyone is not talking about, Powers, the Colts’ DB who’s out and whose replacement got torched by Braylon Edwards (who even managed to not drop the ball) in the conference final. The Saints will put up some serious points in this game, since they can also run the ball (which nobody is talking about). The Colts will be one-dimensional… but that hasn’t really been an issue all season, so why start worrying now? My guess here is that this will be a complete shootout, which is exactly what the NFL wants anyway. My only meaningful thought here is that the over/under is a mere 57 and that I’d feel pretty good about taking the over, since that’s not even 30 points per team, and both teams should easily hit that. Yeah, so, that’s still not a pick. Frankly, I have no idea. I mean, really, look at my record for the season, I’m 10 games under .500… I obviously have no idea. OK, let me think about what my reaction to various outcomes would be: (1) Colts narrow victory. That is, I think, the expected outcome. (2) Saints narrow victory. That sounds good, I’m rooting for that, and it’s maybe even plausible. (3) Colts blow out the Saints. I’d be disappointed to see that, but not surprised. (4) Saints blow out the Colts…. yeah, I don’t see that one at all. Well, that settles it then, I’m taking the Colts and giving the five points.

But I’ll be rooting for the Saints—and so should everyone not in Indy, frankly. And secretly, though he’d never admit this, not even to himself, Archie Manning probably is, too. It means everything to New Orleans and next to nothing to Indy, since they just got one and will most certainly be in the running next year, too, which might not be true for the Saints.

AFC
Jets @ Indianapolis(-7.5)
I really, really want the Jets to win this game. It would be such sweet, sweet justice if the Colts lost to a team that they tanked a game to, wouldn’t it? (Plus of course I hate the Colts, so it gets the double.) I don’t see it happening, though, as the Colts are just way too good. On the other hand, the Colts have mostly not been blowing people out this year (last week notwithstanding), and the Jets will be way fired up, and can cover a lot better than the Ravens can. I’ll take the points on the theory that the Jets will at least be in the game, probably aided by more inexplicable missed field goals, since Matt Stover is like 62 years old now.

NFC
Vikings @ New Orleans(-3.5)
I knew I had it last week when everybody was taking the Cowboys. Well, this time I’ve heard a few pundits and TV/radio talking head take the Vikings… Not a good sign. I said weeks ago that I don’t think the Vikings can win in New Orleans, and I’ve seen nothing since then that changes that. Saints. (But I’ll be rooting for the Vikings!)

All home favorites this week…

Saturday
Cardinals @ New Orleans(-7)
Gotta like the Saints at home to win, but I’m not so sure about this many points. The Saints did not finish the season looking good, and the Cardinals offense was pretty much on fire last week. Oh, yeah, but their defense failed to show up, and they’ll on the road at New Orleans. No, no, it’s still too many points, I have to take them.

Ravens @ Indianapolis(-6)
I hate the Colts so much for tanking it mid-game against the Jets that and it would be such awesome karmic retribution if they were to lose this game… but I don’t think they will. Flacco is hurt and I really don’t think the Ravens can have, what, 30 yards passing again and win. Give the points, but I’ll be rooting hard for the Ravens.

Sunday
Cowboys @ Minnesota(-2.5)
Everyone and their brother is taking the Cowboys, who have looked great twice in a row against… the Eagles, a team that has no idea what the phrase “running game” means. Meh. The Vikings will run, and have guys who can actually rush Romo without selling out to blitz like the Eagles. I’m giving the points.

Jets @ San Diego(-7)
I think the Chargers win this game because Revis can’t cover everybody, but I don’t like giving that many points, so I’ll take the Jets.

Saturday
Jets @ Cincinnati(-2.5)
I don’t like this game at all. I know the Bengals were tanking it last week and Benson didn’t play, but I’m also not confident that they can just flip the switch. This is a coin flip, so I guess I’ll take the points.

Eagles @ Dallas(-3.5)
Wow, two teams with spotty late- and post-season records. However, Romo has been absolutely on fire lately and the Eagles still have to deal with the loss of their center, which I still think is a big deal. I’ll give the points.

Sunday
Ravens @ New England(-3.5)
All the pundits are downgrading the Pats because of the loss of Welker and how badly they played the run against Houston last week. (That was quite a game, by the way.) However, Wilfork was out last week, and he’s their run-stopper. I think they can overcome the loss of Welker for one game; Edelman played really well against the Texans. Also, the Pats are at home and they play much better there than on the road. I’ll give the points, though I can’t see how the Pats can win on the road next week.

Packers @ Arizona, pick
Since the Vikings had won, the Cards had nothing to play for and showed nothing last week. They’ll play better this time and I don’t think they’ll get blown out. On the other hand, the Packers’ O-line has been playing better of late, their defense looks good and, most importantly, Boldin is probably out for this game. OK, that means Green Bay.

The final season comes to an end, and this is always a tough week for picks, since different teams have different things at stake and different approaches to games that “don’t matter.”

Sunday 1:00
Colts @ Buffalo(-8)
I think the Bills are so bad that the Colts can play their practice squad and only lose by a TD, so I’ll take the points.

Saints @ Carolina(-7)
New Orleans has nothing to play for and the Panthers, while eliminated, actually do, which is making sure that Fox really gets to keep his job. They’ll be up for the Saints’ second team, and will cover.

Jaguars @ Cleveland(-1.5)
Absolutely everything has to go right in terms of other teams for the Jags to make the playoffs, but that slim chance will keep them ahead in this game. Give the ball to MJD!!

Bears @ Detroit(+3)
The Bears aren’t very good, but the Lions remain terrible; give the points.

Patriots @ Texans(-7)
So, I’ll be at this game, and it could be really interesting. The Pats secondary is bad, and the Texans can throw. Houston’s real problem has been closing out games, but will New England be resting their key guys by then? Also, the Pats have been horrible on the road this year. So much uncertainty… I like the Texans to win, but I cannot in good conscience give that many points, so I’ll be picking the Pats.

Steelers @ Miami(+3)
Will Polamalu actually play? That’s clearly the big question here. In this game it probably matters less than in some other matchups because the Dolphins don’t throw that much. I just hate the way the Steelers have been all over the place this season, and I think it should cos them, so I’ll take the Dolphins here.

Giants @ Minnesota(-8)
Err, I don’t know if people have noticed this, but the Vikings are looking mighty dysfunctional of late. The Giants still have some heart left, so I like them to keep it closer than this.

Niners @ St. Louis(+8)
The Rams won’t even try to win this because they won’t want to jeopardize that first overall pick. Oh, and the also suck, so it won’t be a problem. Niners blow them out.

Falcons @ Tampa(+2)
Atlanta looked good last week, but playing the Bills often has that effect. The Bucs seem to have a little fight in them, but I think the Falcons can cover the small spread.

Sunday ~4:10
Eagles @ Dallas(-3)
Ahh, the official “we’re just as clueless as everyone else” spread, home team by three. Dunno, it’s actually a big game because the Iggles could take the #2 seed if the Vikings stumble, which they easily could. On the other hand, Dallas seems to have gotten over their December woes, and hey, it’s not December anymore anyway. If the Vikings lose then the Eagles will have it locked up and will rest guys. If the Vikings win, the Eagles will go all-out for the #2 seed. So, my pick hinges on whether the Vikings win… ugh. I don’t like the Vikes to cover the big number, but will they actually lose? Hard choice. Can’t do it, have to take the points.

Packers @ Arizona(-3.5)
Weird, seems like too many points in a game that neither team needs for anything. Err, wait, if both the Vikings and the Eagles lose, they can get the #2 seed, whereas the Packers have nothing at all on the line. In fact, the seeding is such that the Packers will face the Cards in Arizona if the seeding doesn’t change, so with that possibility on the table for Green Bay, they’ll play close to the vest and won’t show anything. OK, I’ve talked myself into it, Cards cover.

Chefs @ Denver(-11)
Really? Eleven? I mean, yeah, KC is bad, but that seems a little excessive, especially with the Broncos in self-destruct mode at the moment. I’ll take 11 points, that’s way too many to give here.

Ravens @ Oakland(+10.5)
Baltimore is playing for their playoff lives, and I believe Oakland is back to JaMarcus at QB. Give the big number.

Redskins @ San Diego(-3.5)
The Bolts have the #2 spot wrapped up and will sit guys. A lot of the guys on the Skins are playing for their jobs next season. Take the points.

Titans @ Seattle(+4)
Err, has nobody seen the Seabags the last few weeks? They’re… atrocious, and CJ has a shot at the 2000 yard mark, so Tennessee, while having no shot at the playoffs, will still be going for it. I’d give 8 here no problem, so 4 is a gimme.

SNF
Bengals @ New Jersey Jets(-10)
Wow, that’s a big number, but Cincy has already checked out for this game, no matter what anybody is saying in public. Nice for the Jets to be handed two games at the end of the season to lock up their playoff spot, isn’t it? Total BS, but what can you do? Ugh, give the points.

Oh, yeah, bowls. Obviously I’ve been more out of it than usual this year…

1/1, Outback (neé Hall of Fame): Northwestern vs. Auburn(-8)
If there’s a reason to think Northwestern will be in this game, I can’t come up with it. Give ‘em.

1/1, Gator: West Virginia vs. Florida State(+2.5)
Ah, yes, the “Bobby Bowden is retiring so he’ll get special treatment” bowl. VA Tech should be ticked, they should have gotten this bid. How much more compelling would VATech vs. WVU have been? Seriously. Mountaineers roll.

1/1, Capital One (neé Citrus): Penn State vs. LSU(-1)
When in doubt, pick against the Big Ten.

1/1, Rose: OSU vs. Oregon(-4)
Same rule as last game. Plus, there is simply no way I can root for the Buckeyes, , so I have to pick this way.

1/1, Sugar: Cincinnati vs. Florida(-12.5)
Wow, I figure Florida as a lock for this one, but that’s a boatload of points. Too many for me.

1/2, International: South Florida vs. Northern Illinois(+7)
Wow, Directional State U as a bowl game. In Canada. If ever evidence was needed that there are too many bowls, this has to be it. Give the points, the MAC sucks.

1/2, Papajohns.com: South Carolina vs. UConn(+4)
For no good reason, I’ll take UConn and the points.

1/2, Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss(-3)
I have no idea why the Rebels are favored here—I would have guessed the other way around—so I’ll take the points.

1/2, Liberty: Arkansas vs. East Carolina(+7.5)
Ugh, a C-USA team in a bowl. Gotta go with the team that actually plays somebody, so I’m going Razorbacks.

1/2, Alamo: Michigan State vs. Texas Tech(-7.5)
Well, the Mike Leach media feeding frenzy is in full swing. You’d think that’d be a distraction, but Texas Tech will have the stadium packed and MSU sucks, so I’ll take the Red Raiders.

1/4, Fiesta: Boise State vs. TCU(-7.5)
TCU is better and will probably win. However, I like Boise to keep it close enough to be interesting from a point spread perspective, so I’m going with the Broncos.

1/5, Orange: Iowa vs. Georgia Tech(-4)
Tech has that gimmick option offense. That’s great when you never see it and have only a week to prepare, but Iowa is a well-coached team (they certainly aren’t in a BCS bowl on talent) and they have time to prepare. I like getting more than a FG here, so I’m picking the Hawkeyes… but rooting for Tech! Go Jackets!

1/6, GMAC: Central Michigan vs. Troy(+3.5)
Whatever the O/U is, take the over. The Trojans will have a strong home-field advantage as nobody in Michigan has any money to travel. CMU’s losing their coach and sucks in bowls, but this is Troy State we’re talking about here. Nope, can’t talk myself into it, taking the points.

1/7, BCS Title: Texas vs. Alabama(-4)
Smaller spread than I would have thought. Frankly, I think the UT offense will struggle like they did against Nebraska, only Bama has a better offense. Again, picking the Tide, but rooting for the Longhorns.

I’m in the land of double-prong outlets and no Internet access so I’m doing this all on my phone…

Sunday 1:00
Bills @ Atlanta(-9)
Lotta points, but I’ll give ‘em.

Chefs @ Cicinnati(-13.5)
Even more points, and I’ll give again.

Raiders @ Cleveland(-3)
Vegas doesn’t know either. Browns?

Seahawks @ Green Bay(-14)
I knew I should have picked against the Seabags last week. I won’t miss the chance this week.

Texans @ Miami(-3)
Wow, with playoff implications and everything. Texans are 4-0 all time against Miami… so they’ll lose this one. Miami covers.

Panthers @ New Jersey Giants(-7.5)
Too many points; take Carolina.

Jaguars @ New England(-8)
Again, too many points.

Bucs @ New Orleans(-14)
NOT too many points, Saints cruise.

Ravens @ Pittsburgh(-3)
I like the Ravens here.

Sunday 4:00ish
Rams @ Arizona(-14)
Too many points.

Lions @ San Fran(-13)
I hate the Lions on the road; give the big number.

Broncos @ Philly(-7)
Iggles.

Jest @ Indy(-5.5)
Gang Green is done and the Colts showed that they want these games, so I’m giving the points.

SNF
Cowboys @ Washington(+7)
Too many points; the Skins D has some pride and will be looking to atone for last week.

MNF
Vikings @ Chicago(+7)
I don’t like the way the Vikes are infighting and Favre is looking poor but the Bears are awful so I’ll give the points.

We both took the Colts on Thursday and the Saints on Saturday… oops.

Sunday 1:00
Patriots at Buffalo(+7)
I don’t like the Pats on the road this season. I think they’ll probably win because they really need to, but that’s too many points.

Cardinals @ Detroit(+14)
I think that Arizona does have something to play for: erasing the memory of last week to build momentum for the playoffs. The Lions’ defense can’t stop anything, I like the Cards to light it up.

Browns @ Kansas City(-2)
Cleveland has shown signs of life lately, and I don’t like the idea of the Chefs giving points.

Falcons @ New Jersey Jets(-7)
Atlanta on the road in a game that means nothing to them and everything to the Jets? Give the points.

Texans @ St. Louis(-14)
How bad is the NFC West? I saw the Texans absolutely light up the Seahawks last week; that game was actually way worse than the score. However, the Texans still can’t stop the run, and the Rams will run, and… err, I have to try to catch up somewhere, so I’ll take the points and hope my boys only win by 10.

Dolphins @Tennessee(-5)
Miami needs this game, I’ll take the points.

Sunday ~4:10
Forty-Niners @ Philadelphia(-7.5)
If all you can do is pass, the Niners can defend that. Oh, look, it’s the Eagles. Yeah, take the points.

Raiders @ Denver(-14)
The Raiders lost Gradkowski, who was the source of their looking decent again. Broncos will stomp all over them.

Bengals @ San Diego(-7)
Tough week for Cinci. They don’t really need the game and I’m taking the Bolts all December until they give me reason to go otherwise.

Bears @ Baltimore(-11)
Is Ed Reed back yet? I’m not sure the Ravens are really that good (beating up on the Lions shows nothing) until Reed gets back. On the other hand, Chicago is plain awful. OK, give the points.

Packers @ Pittsburgh(-2)
Wrong team favored! The Packers are much better than Pittsburgh. Gotta love getting points here.

Buccaneers @ Seattle(-6.5)
The Seabags are really, really bad. I can only begin to tell you how awful their offense looked last week in person. But you know what? The Bucs are even worse, and are on the road. I’ll take Seattle.

SNF
Vikings @ Carolina(+9)
Now that the Saints have lost, the Vikings need to keep on the pressure to hope for home field. Give the points.

MNF
Giants @ Washington(+3)
The Giants have no defense, even the Redskins will be able to move the ball on them. Plus, the Redskins have a real defense. I like getting points here.

Time for a standings update and frankly, it’s not pretty. I went 8-8 in weeks 11 and 12 while Al went 10-6 both of those weeks. Then there was last week, where I went 6-10 and Al went 10-6. It’s a merciless beating. Al had a correction some time back and probably should get credit for another game somewhere, but it completely doesn’t matter, I’m now a full 20 games behind with only three weeks left plus playoffs and bowls… I think it’s out of reach. 92-99-1 to 112-79-1. I’m really not doing all that badly overall, just a little below .500, but Al is just on fire this year.

But, for the sake of completeness…

Sunday 1:00
Saints @ Atlanta(+10)
Yeah, I don’t see the Falcons doing much better this week against the Saints than they did the week before against the Eagles.

Lions @ Baltimore(-14)
Man, the Lions’ injury list is… scary. In particular, Stafford is out, and it looks like Suggs might be back for the Ravens. I don’t like giving this many, but without Stafford I can’t see how the Lions will keep up.

Packers @ Chicago(+4)
Spread seems to small, since the Bears aren’t very good and the Packers have really improved of late. I think they’ll be good to cover this.

Seahawks @ Houston(-7)
The whole family is going to this game.You know, the Texans should cover this easily, but really I’m not even sure that they’ll even win. Take the points.

Broncos @ Indianapolis(-7)
I think that Denver has turned it back around and that they’ll make the playoffs… but they still aren’t a good bet on the road against the Colts.

Dolphins @ Jacksonville(-3)
So, the Jags have the better record, but I’ve watched their last couple games and I have no faith in them at all. I’ll take the points.

Bills @ Kansas City(+2)
Man, I have absolutely no idea. OK, so… logic. The Bills can’t stop the run but they’re pretty good against the pass, and the Chefs can’t run, so I guess that gives Buffalo an edge.

Bengals @ Minnesota(-6.5)
Awesome, I love getting almost a full TD here. The Bengals don’t have the offense that the Cardinals do, but they rock on defense and now that the blueprint has been supplied, this game could easily be 10-7.

Panthers @ New England(-13)
OK, so I know the Pats have been awful lately, but the problem they have is that they simply cannot cover people. But the Panthers can’t pass, so…. nope, I still can’t do it. Take the points.

Jets @ Tampa Bay(+3.5)
I keep taking the Bucs because of the points, and I keep getting shafted. No more. Jets.

Sunday ~4:10
Rams @ Tennessee(-13)
Well, the Rams are still awful. Maybe the Titans came back to earth a little last week, but they’re still a lot better than St. Louis. Give the points.

Redskins @ Oakland(+1)
You know… this might even be a game worth watching, but nobody will because everyone outside DC and the Bay Area will get the Chargers and Cowboys. Oh, well. I actually like the Redskins on the road; I think they have the defense to carry the day.

Chargers @ Dallas(-3)
Again, I’m thrilled to get points here. Anybody looked at the Cowboys’ record in December of late? How about the Chargers’ record in December? Yeah.

SNF
Eagles @ New Jersey Giants(+1)
So, the Giants are getting better, but the Eagles are kind of on cruise control. I think Philly is just better… I’ll give the point.

MNF
Cardinals @ San Francisco(+3.5)
Look out when Arizona gets on a roll. This is starting to look at lot like last year when things started to click for them. The Niners are done.

I always forget about these games…

Steelers @ Cleveland(+9.5)
Ten? Really? Wow, well, that’s… too much, that’s what that is. I mean sure, the Stillers will probably get off the schnide and win this game, but right now they’re pointing fingers at each other and Hines Ward is out. That doesn’t have “blowout” written on it, and the Cleveland D is respectable. I’m taking the points.