NFL Week 14 Picks

Sunday, 1:00
Raiders(3) @ New Jersey Jest
The Jest have to lose to stay in the Reggie hunt, and I think they’ll oblige. Raiders.

Rams @ Minnesota(7)
That’s a slightly bigger number than I expected, but right now I’m definitely on the Vikings bandwagon since Culpepper went down. Plus, Harvard-boy didn’t look quite so hot against a real defense last week.

Colts(9) @ Jacksonville
You see that bit last week where Manning wanted to run another play at the end of the half? He seems like he’s ticked and wants to run it up on people. I’ve heard all this talk about the Jags play them tough and all, but this is a backup QB and backup RB. Colts all the way.

Browns @ Cincinnati(13)
Another one of those “how high would the spread have to be for me to pick the other way?” games. I think it’d have to be about 18.

Bucs @ Carolina(6)
There’s a “living on borrowed time” feeling to the Bucs this year, I think. I like the Panthers at home in this one.

Patriots(4) @ Buffalo
Hooray for the small spread. Pats.

Bears @ Pittsburgh(6.5)
I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but the Steelers look a little out of sync lately. That’s a bad thing against the Chicago D. I don’t see Pittsburgh covering this.

Texans @ Tennessee(6.5)
The Texans will lose, tightening their grip on the Reggie pick, this we know. But will they keep it close, like they did against the Ravens? I think so.

Sunday, ~4:10
Giants(9) @ Philadelphia
Why is this spread not double digits? I see no reason to think the Eagles won’t take another huge beating this week. Maybe not 42-0, but they won’t be in this game.

Niners @ Seattle(16)
Their last game was actually close, but that was in SF. Seattle blows them out this time.

Redskins(4) @ Arizona
The Cardinals suck and the Redskins, while not especially good, don’t. Thus, I’m taking Washington.

Chiefs @ Dallas(3)
Toughest pick on the board for me, as I can see this going either way. I guess that means I should take the points, right? <shrug> OK, I will.

Ravens @ Denver(14.5)
Some chinks in the armor showing in Denver. They’ll win, but not by more than two TDs. Ten would have been a better spread here.

Dolphins @ San Diego(13.5)
On the theory that the Chargers are horribly inconsistent, I’m looking for this game to be close after last week’s blowout. Take the points.

ESPN
Lions @ Green Bay(6)
I’m waiting for the Lions to just literally start finger-pointing right in the middle of a game. Packers.

MNF
Saints @ Atlanta(10.5)
The Falcons will win, but they never play well against the Saints, so I don’t think they’ll cover this spread. Too rich for my blood.

NFL Week 13 Picks

Sunday 1:00
Titans @ Indianapolis(15.5)
If there’s a reason to think the Colts won’t cover this, I can’t think of it.

Vikings(2.5) @ Detroit
I’m typing this pick before I even look at the spread. I don’t care what it is, there is no way I’m picking the Lions right now.

Packers @ Chicago(7)
The Bears could cover this without their offense even taking the field. They’ll return at least one INT for a TD as Favre heaves into coverage while being pulled down. I’m starting one of the Bears’ DBs in fantasy football and I’m expecting at least two picks.

Jaguars(3) @ Cleveland
Even without Leftwich, the Jags are more than a FG better than the hapless Browns, right?

Falcons @ Carolina(3)
I think the Panthers are the better team but I’m taking the points. Carolina’s fastest LB is out, and they have enough trouble with Vick without being slow on the edges.

Texans @ Baltimore(8)
Houston is going to lose all the rest of their games to guarantee them the first draft pick, but they have to look like they’re trying. I say they lose by only six.

Bengals @ Pittsburgh(3.5)
Even with Big Ben nicked up, the Steelers are an above-.500 team. The Bengals do not beat good teams, particularly not on the road. Steelers.

Cowboys @ New Jersey Giants(3)
Call me crazy, but the Giants have been money at home this year, I’m sticking with ‘em..

Bucs(3.5) @ New Orl, San Ant, Baton… the friggin’ Saints
So, when the Saints mail it in, what’s the originating postmark?

Bills @ Miami(5)
Buffalo has been horrific on the road, so I’ll give the points.

Sunday ~4:10
Cardinals(3) @ San Francisco
Arizona is 3-8 against the spread this year and is a road favorite. Yeah, I know, against the horrible Niners, but still, I have to take the points.

Redskins(3) @ St. Louis
Let’s see how Harvard boy looks against a real defense, not the Division II squad he lit up last week. I’m going with the Redskins.

Jest @ New England(10)
Ten? Ten! Are they serious? If the Pats get up by ten they’ll let guys from the stands come in at DB. They will not cover this.

Broncos(1) @ Kansas City
As bizarre as it seems, I think the Broncos are the second best team in the NFL right now, so why’s the spread only 1? Whatever, I’m taking the Denver running game and defense to win by more than a measly point.

ESPN
Raiders @ San Diego(11.5)
Hmm, apparently Vegas misplaced some of the points in the Broncos game and mistakenly gave them to the Chargers. I have no doubt that if the Chargers bring their A game, they can cover this. But they’re rather prone to not always bringing their A game. On the other hand, they hate the Raiders so they probably will. Bolts!

MNF
Seahawks(4) @ Philadelphia
Here’s a couple more points from the Chargers game. The Eagles are a train wreck, Seattle easily covers this.

NFL Week 12 Picks

Sunday, 1:00 pm
Niners @ Tennessee(8)
Wow, are the Titans really 8 points better than anybody? I say no.

Patriots @ Kansas City(3)
Wow, could the Pats make it three in a row? I actually think they can.

Rams(3.5) @ Houston
While the Texans have showed some signs of life of late and the Rams have stunk it up, this is not enough points for me to pick the home team here.

Ravens @ Cincinnati(9.5)
The Ravens are terrible, no matter what happened against the Steelers last week (Maddox on the road). Cinci put up a good fight against the Colts last week, I think they’ll handle the Ravens here.

Panthers(4) @ Buffalo
Only 4? Terrific, I’m happy with that. Panthers.

Bears @ Tampa Bay(3)
I’m still not convinced by Simms, and I think against the Bears defense he’ll really struggle. I like getting points here.

Chargers(3) @ Washington
I think the Redskins have been exposed and the Chargers desperately need to keep winning to stay alive for a wild card–they’ll cover this.

Browns @ Minnesota(4)
Hmm, I’m actually kind of thinking losing Culpepper might have been the best possible thing for the Vikings season. I say they keep it going.

Sunday, ~4:10 pm
Dolphins @ Oakland(7)
I admit it, I cannot figure out the Dolphins. I guess that means I’ll take the Raiders at home.

Jaguars(3.5) @ Arizona
The Cardinals are also pretenders. Again, the Jags need wins to stay in the wild card hunt, which I think they’ll do here (including the cover).

Giants @ Seattle(4.5)
Awesome game. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’re going to see it here. Actually, this is such a good matchup that now I have to check. Wow! Hey, we’re getting this game! Oh, right, that’s because the Cowboys already played this week. Cool. Anyway, the pick. Seabags are really tough at home but I otherwise figure this is a “pick” game so I like getting points. Go Tiki!

Packers @ Philadelphia(4.5)
I have exactly no idea what will happen here. I’ve been a bit out of the loop on football shows of late, so I’m not up on the latest news. Thus, on the theory that just about every outcome is equally likely, I’ll take the points.

Sunday EPSN
Saints @ New Jersey Jest(1)
Hey, look, I’m picking the Jets! Yes, really!

MNF
Steelers @ Indianapolis(8)
You know what? Big Ben is back, and I’m taking the Steelers. Not because I think they’ll win, but because I think they’ll keep it close and the Colts are going to do just enough to win, but it won’t be a huge beating.

NFL Week 12: Thanksgiving

Two quick picks before the main set, with the holiday and all.

Thursday, 12:30
Falcons(3) @ Detroit
This is put up or shut up time for Atlanta. They have to win this one or they’re done for the season considering the division they’re in. I say they break out everything for this game and beat the Lions down.

Thursday, 4:15
Broncos(2) @ Dallas
Denver seems to be on autopilot lately, just crushing whatever is in their path. I just don’t see the Cowboys standing up to them.

NFL Week 10 Picks

Sunday, 1:00 pm
Ravens @ Jacksonville(6.5)
Baltimore is done. Yes, they got up for that game at Pittsburgh, but that was it. They’re finished.

Texans @ Indy(17)
Letdown game for Indy? That sure is a big number. As much as I’d love to see the Texans make a game of it, I think the Colts cover it anyway.

Cardinals @ Detroit(3.5)
OK, I think Garcia is out again, which means there’s no way I pick the Lions.

Niners @ Chicago(13)
That’s a huge number! I don’t doubt that the Bears will win, but come on, by 13? Nah.

Chefs @ Buffalo(2.5)
I fail to see why the Bills would be favored here. Gimme KC.

Patriots(2.5) @ Miami
A toughie. So far the Pats have perfectly alternated wins and losses, and they lost last week. That’s as good a theory as any other–Pats.

Vikings @ New Jersey NFC(9.5)
The Vikings had their day in the sun last week. Brad’s true colors show through. Or rather, the Vikings defense does its thing and gives up like 40 on the road. Either way, Jints cover.

Sunday, ~4:10 pm
Broncos(3) @ Oakland
Rivalry game, I guess. I like Denver, even on the road.

Jest @ Carolina(9)
This is actually a really tough pick. Again, I’m certainly of the belief that the Panthers cover, but 9 is a lot against the surprisingly game Jest. Of course, no Chrebet–better go with Carolina.

Rams @ Seattle(6.5)
I’ll stick with the Seabags at home.

Packers @ Atlanta(9)
Vick could go 2 for 5 for 12 yards and the Falcons would still cover this.

Skins @ Tampa, pick
Weird spread. Has anybody noticed that the Bucs have sucked since Griese went down? Oh, wait, since Cadillac went down. Well, whatever, they suck. Washington.

Sunday ESPN
Browns @ Pittsburgh(7.5)
Even with Charlie Batch at the helm, I don’t see the Stillers letting Cleveland into this game at any point.

MNF
Cowboys @ Philly(3)
Cool, I get to pick against Philly and I get a field goal. Sweet.

NFL Week 9 Picks

Sunday, 1:00 pm
Raiders @ Kansas City(4.5)
Lots of guys banged up on both sides. Priest will be out, Moss might be out, but Priest has LJ as a backup and the guy behind Moss is…? Right, I’ll take the Chefs.

Texans @ Jacksonville(13)
Wow, big spread. Still, Texans on the road, gotta give the points.

Titans @ Cleveland(3)
I’m sorry, the Browns just lost to Houston, and now they’re a favorite? Yeah, I’ll take those.

Bengals(3) @ Baltimore
It was nice to see the Ravens really get up for a game last week, too bad they put it all out there and still lost. Cinci.

Panthers(1) @ Tampa
How is this only 1 point? Clearly, the Vegas guys know something I don’t–like that’s a big surprise. I’m still takin’ Carolina.

Chargers(6) @ New Jersey Jest
Oh, come on, the Jest have nothing, and the Chargers need every win they can get just to stay alive for the playoffs. They won’t screw this one up.

Lions(1) @ Minnesota
Think Brad Johnson can right the ship? I certainly don’t, and I only have to give one point!

Falcons(2) @ Miami
I’m hoping for an awful lot of Warrick Dunn. Falcons, baby.

Sunday, ~4:10 pm
Giants(10.5) @ San Francisco
Well, nice to see the Niners pull one off. Not this week, they won’t stay within two TDs of the steamrolling Giants. And I get Tiki’s numbers in Fantasy Football, nice!

Seabags(4) @ Arizona
You keep thinking that the Cards have some life, so I’ll take the Seabags on the road to riverside you.

Bears(3) @ New Orle, err, Baton Rouge this week
I give up, I’m not picking the Saints anymore.

Steelers(3.5) @ Green Bay
Charlie Batch? Bettis out as well? Steelers will do exactly enough to win, I’m taking the Packers to lose by a FG at most.

Sunday ESPN
Eagles @ Washington(3)
Iggles got their butts handed to them last week, McNabb is banged up, the Eagles can’t run the ball or defend, and Owens is sounding off again. Of course, the Skins were also embarrassed last week. Dunno, looks like the wheels are coming off in Philly, I’ll give the points.

MNF
Colts(3.5) @ New England
No snow in the forecast. I hope I’m wrong, but I have to think the Pats run on this is finally over. Should be fun to see what the Pats throw at Manning, though, and whether or not he can get his hands off his throat. I think they’ll run Edge enough to win and cover, though.

NFL Week 8 Picks

Sunday, 1:00
Bears @ Detroit(3)
Didn’t the Bears already pummel the Lions this year? This is a coin flip, spread should be zero, so I’ll take the points.

Cardinals @ Dallas(9)
The Cowboys really need a win given how tough their division is, especially given last week’s game. I think this is a statement game and Parcells’ boys cover.

Packers @ Cincinnati(9)
Not exactly a statement game, but I think the Bengals are nine points better even in an offhand remark kind of way.

Vikings @ Carolina(8)
No way do the Vikings get it together two games in a row, especially not on the road against a rested Panthers team. They’ll get blown out.

Raiders(1) @ Tennessee
No more picking the Titans for me.

Jaguars(3) @ St. Louis
OK, so the punchless Saints couldn’t get to Jamie Martin, but I bet the Jags can, and will cover.

Redskins @ New Jersey NFC(2.5)
Well, just to be contrarian, I’ll take the Skins.

Browns @ Houston(2)
Have any of these line-setters actually watched a Texans game? Seriously, there are IAA teams with better offensive lines. I can’t believe ANYONE actually gets points against the Texans, I have to take them.

Sunday, ~4:10
Chefs @ San Diego(6)
If the Bolts don’t win this one, they’ll win the “best team not in the playoffs” award this year. They simply have to win this game. I think they can, but by six? Man, that’s tough.

Dolphins @ San Ant, err, New Orl, err, the Saints(2.5)
Is Joe Horn back for the Saints? Does it matter? I really have no clue. It’s a pick-’em game, but the home team Saints only have to give 2.5 instead of 3. That’s as good a reason as any, I guess. Saints.

Bucs(11) @ San Francisco
And the Niners are starting Ken Dorsey, yikes. Nothing leads me to believe the Niners can stay in this game at all.

Eagles @ Denver(3.5)
I never pick the Eagles right this year. I dunno, they seem to be living on borrowed time. Broncos.

ESPN
Bills @ New England(9)
Too many points. Even if the Pats win, they’ll do just enough to do so. They’re really thinking about next week and trying to get healthy, they won’t blow anyone out.

MNF
Ravens @ Pittsburgh(10.5)
IIRC, there’s some bad blood between these teams–I don’t see why the Steelers wouldn’t run it up a little, and I certainly can’t see how Baltimore could stop them.

NFL Week 7 Picks

Friday
Chefs @ Miami(1.5)
I have exactly no idea. I guess if it’s a coin toss, I’ll take the points. (Note: I sent this pick off to a buddy on Thursday. Really.)

Sunday, 1:00
Detroit @ Cleveland(3)
I’m testing out a new rule here: no NFC North teams on the road outside the division.

Packers(1.5) @ Minnesota
Farve is usually horrible in the BaggieDome, but is there any more of a train wreck than the Vikings right now? I’ll give the points.

Colts(15.5) @ Houston
Well, if the answer to the above question is “yes,” it’s the Texans. Indy rolls–Carr sacked eight or nine times, easy.

Saints @ St. Louis(3)
Bugler is still out, right? Saints.

Steelers @ Cincinnati(1)
OK, so the Bengals have this flashy record, but Big Ben is back and the Bengals haven’t exactly been beating up on the league’s elite. I’ll take the Stillers.

Chargers @ Philadelphia(3.5)
I don’t see how the Iggles hold the ball long enough to keep LT from running all over them.

Niners @ Washington(13)
Hmm, rookie Alex Smith on the road against a real defense. Uhh, give the points.

Sunday, ~4:10
Cowboys @ Seattle(4)
Seabags at home. I’d be happier if the spread were 2, though, as I wouldn’t be too surprised if it was only by a field goal. Oh, wait, I think Julius Jones it out–4 should be safe.

Ravens @ Chicago(1)
Wow, this could be the worst-quaterbacked game of the year–two horrible passers against two good defenses. I think the Bears are slightly less sad.

Bills @ Oakland(3)
Moss is out, the Bills lead their division, and the Raiders are favored? Whatever, I’ll gladly take those points–Bills win outright.

Broncos @ New Jersey NFC(2)
Fascinating. I dunno, the Broncos really have looked good since that opening week debacle. I like them getting points.

Titans @ Arizona(4)
Uhh, wow. No idea yet again. OK, I’ll make something up: I see the Titans handing off a lot and that working enough to keep it within a FG. It’s not like the Cards actually have a home field advantage. What I really want to know is: What’s the over/under on attendance for this game, 10,000? 8,000?

MNF
Jest @ Atlanta(7)
Vick and Dunn are healthy. Is anyone on the Jets healthy? Anyone who matters? No? Falcons.

NFL Week 6 Picks

OK, since my blog has been so inactive because I’m really busy this semester, I’m now posting my weekly picks there, for public ridicule.

Sunday, 1:00
Falcons(5.5) @ San Ant, err, the Saints
It sure looked to me like the Saints gave up last week, and have decided they have an excuse for any losses they take. Can’t be good. Assuming Vick plays (which I thought last week, too), Falcons cover.

Panthers(1) @ Detroit
How’s it only 1? Seriously, just because the Lions ran it up a little on Baltimore, they really shouldn’t be confused for a good team.

Bengals(3) @ Tennessee
Still no Houshmandzadeh, but watching the Titans last week, I have to say, they’re not very good. Bengals bounce back.

Browns @ Baltimore(6)
Ugh. Are the Ravens actually six points better than anyone? I’m thinking no.

Jaguars @ Pittsburgh(3)
Hmm. The last I saw, Tommy Maddox is starting at QB. Jags.

Dolphins @ Tampa(3.5)
The return of Ricky Williams, and of Cadillac, right? I think with Cadillac, they can cover this.

Vikings @ Chicago(3)
Seriously, how does Mike Tice still have a job? I really want to know. I mean, this would be like me keeping my job after not showing up for my own classes for a whole semester. Bears.

Giants @ Dallas(3)
Hunh? I get points here? Yay. Go G-Men!

Redskins @ Kansas City(5.5)
Kansas City needs this win really, really badly. But the Redskins seem to keep every game close, and I’m hoping they can bottle up the KC offense enough to keep it close.

Sunday, 4:15
Patriots @ Denver(3)
I get burned every time I pick against the Pats, so I’m stopping

Jest @ Buffalo(3)
Despite Vinny’s fine performance last week, the Bills looked rejuvenated with the change in QB. I’ll take the Bills.

Chargers(2) @ Oakland
San Diego will bounce back after last week and will take it to the inferior Raiders.

Sunday ESPN
Texans @ Seattle(9)
Texans on the road? Ugly. A national audience gets to see the worst pass-blocking line in the NFL.

MNF
Rams @ Indy(13.5)
Again, I see no reason to believe that the Colts won’t run it up at least that much on a horribly inferior team.

The NHL is Back

I grew up in Minnesota, so I grew up with hockey. I miss the NHL. The only good thing about the lost season is that I live in an AHL city and the lack of the NHL raised the level of play in the AHL this year because the best players didn’t get called up (and some lower-tier NHL players slummed it). Of course, I think I made it to a total of two games, so I might not be the best judge.

If the NHL wants to succeed in the U.S. they really need to figure out how to get it right on TV. Hockey is so much better live than on TV it’s amazing. I’ve taken a fair number of people to their first-ever hockey games (IHL back in Atlanta and AHL here) and the response “wow, I never liked hockey before” is very common. It intrinsically doesn’t go to TV as well as other sports, but still, American broadcasts are nowhere near as good as Canadian ones. I love it when I’m somewhere where I can get “Hockey Night in Canada.” It’s not as good as live hockey, but it’s one heck of a lot better than even the ESPN A-crew. (And I’m still trying to forget the whole Fox debacle.)

Some of the rule changes should help a little. I know shootouts offend the purists, but fans LOVE them because they are, in fact, really exciting to watch. There were teams the last couple seasons with something like 30 ties, that’s just got to stop, American sports fans hate ties. and I hate seeing records with four spots in them–I can never remember which of the last two is which.

No red line is a good idea, but I’m not sure it’ll help much right away–the players are still too used to it not being that way. They did that in the AHL this year, and early in the season, it didn’t make much difference.

Smaller goalie equipment can only be a good thing, but again, i’m not sure it’ll make a huge difference.

Going to international ice would be fantastic. Olympic and world cup hockey are so much more exciting and watchable on TV. They really need to do this, but I don’t think it’s likely because a lot of U.S. arenas aren’t set up for it. It’s a shame, though, I think that would really help.

Any rule changes which encourages actually bringing the puck up the ice rather than dump-and-chase would be most welcomed. People who don’t know the game well find the scrums in the corner stultifying–and they’re right!

I’m also in favor of no-touch icing. Most of the time it just wastes game time watching the one guy trudge back to touch up the puck. This is not worth it for the few times when it becomes a race and is exciting. College hockey has no-touch icing and I like it much better.

I don’t mind the NHL season running later into the summer (nothing but baseball on now anyway, and I’ve lost interest in baseball), but expanding the playoffs seems kind of stupid. The NHL regular season is already pretty meaningless, and allowing teams with losing records to routinely make the playoffs will just render it even more irrelevant. Playoff hockey is indeed a lot better than regular-season hockey, so maybe if the playoff expansion was paired with a reduction in the regular season I might not be so opposed.

As for the people involved, Goodenow is an idiot, and he’s the one who should get most of the blame. I know the players think they’re terribly ticked at Bettman, but he was only doing what he had to to try to save the league from eating itself. Goodenow’s the guy they should be after. Bettman had much better offers on the table early in the process, which Goodenow should have taken. Too many owners losing money were perfectly able to wait it out, but what else are the players supposed to do? Not a lot of market for being able to skate backwards…

And yes, don’t anger the hockey gods. They’re pretty peeved right now, as well they should be.

Still, though, bring on the new season!