Ravens @ Atlanta(-1)
Both teams are 6-2 overall; Falcons are 4-4 vs. the spread, Ravens are 4-3-1 vs. the spread. Tossup, right? I’d say there are two factors here: (1) AFC is better this year, giving an edge to the Ravens, and (2) Both teams are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. The game is in Atlanta, so that gives an edge to the Falcons—and the spread is 1, which seems about right. No major injuries on either side—Roddy White is dinged up but expected to play—so this really is a tossup indeed.
So, what to do? I think Ryan has gotten over his early-season issues, and I think the “at home” effect is somewhat more powerful than the AFC-NFC difference, so I’m going with Atlanta.