Off to a rip-roaring start, having predicted that the Steelers would win by three. Hopefully that’s a harbinger of the year to come…
Anyway, lines come from this page at USA Today. There are now eight lines listed; I use the mode. If there are two modes, I use the one that has a half-point in it, so that there are fewer ties.
Sunday 1:00
Dolphins @ Atlanta(-4)
I predict regression to the mean for both of these teams this season. However, I think this is particularly likely for the Falcons, who played essentially nobody good last season and were very lucky on the injury front. I like Miami to cover this.
Chefs @ Baltimore(-12.5)
Look for the hapless Chefs to finish last in the division, that is, even behind the Raiders. Yes, I think they could easily be that bad this year. The Ravens, on the other hand, should be just fine. My problem here is the number of points involved. “Run the ball and play great defense” is a formula for wins, yes, but not for a lot of NFL blowouts; this is the 2009 NFL, not Nebraska in the 1990s. That’s a lot of points, but is it too many? The Chefs might not get the ball past midfield and still only lose 12–0. Dang I hate spreads like this early in the season. They’re just daring you to pick KC, but I can’t do it. Maybe they beat the spread on an Ed Reed return or something… I hope.
Eagles @ Carolina(+2.5)
Everybody’s all excited about the Philly offense, but what about the defense? They lost their long-time coordinator and didn’t add much in the offseason, did they? How do they stop Williams and Stewart here? How healthy is Westbrook, really? This must be why the spread is less than a field goal. I just don’t know… Eagles, I guess.
Broncos @ Cincinnati(-5)
I see no compelling reason to think that the Bengals are five points better than any other NFL team, even at home. I know it’s supposed to be a down year for the Broncos, but this is the Bengals we’re talking about here. I’ll take the points.
Vikings @ Cleveland(+3.5)
I do not understand this spread at all. The Browns were a train wreck last season, and what exactly happened to suggest that they’ll be any better this year? The Vikings, on the other hand, are stacked. Their defense should be excellent. They have Adrian Peterson. As long as Favre doesn’t go pass-wacky with the deep ball into coverage, he’ll be a significant upgrade. And did I mention that they have Adrian Peterson? Minnesota by at least ten here.
Jest @ Houston(-4)
If Schaub can stay healthy—which I have doubts about—the Texans should be solid this year. Andre Johnson is an animal, Slaton looks good, etc. The only problem is the division they play in, which I think is the best top-to-bottom in football (though the NFC East has an argument here). There are no bad teams in the division, and both the Colts and Titans are just plain good teams. In most divisions, I’d say the Texans would be a playoff team this year. In the AFC South, I’m not so sure. And the Jets, well, they’ve got a new coach and a rookie QB. I say Houston covers this.
Jaguars @ Indy(-7)
Too many points. Don’t get me wrong, I think Indy is a better team overall and will win, but Bob Sanders is out, and that means the Colts are likely to be very soft against the run. Lots of MJD in this game keeps it close, so I’ll take the seven.
Lions @ New Orleans(-13.5)
This is a joke, right? The Lions were one of the worst defenses in the league last year against the pass, and the Saints were the best passing offense. I’d give 18 here, easy.
Dallas @ Tampa(+5.5)
The Cowboys have started well lately, it’s just the end-of-season tanking which has done them in. Tampa has the possibility of being really, really awful this year and even if they’re OK, I expect a slow start. Dallas covers.
Sunday 4:15
Niners @ Arizona(-6)
Perhaps the bookies missed this, but the Cards were in the Super Bowl last year, and they still have most of that offense intact. The big move for the Niners was drafting a guy who is already a hopeless prima donna (and apparently has a room-temperature IQ; how can he possibly think he’ll be drafted higher next year after holding out?) and hasn’t signed yet. Frank Gore is OK but that is, I think, the entire SF offense. The Cards cover this; I’d still give six if the game were in Candlestick (err, whatever it’s called now), but it’s in Phoenix so this is a no-brainer.
Redskins @ New Jersey(-6.5)
The Giants still have no credible deep threat, and with Ward gone to Tampa, it’s not clear who will spell Jacobs, who is in for a beating this year (though he may well be up to it). On the other hand, the G-men should be stout on defense. I kind of missed what the Redskins did this off-season, which probably means they didn’t do much; their pattern is to pay way too much for veterans who are past their prime and to have crappy drafts because they trade away most of their picks to acquire such players. Anyway, the upshot of all this is that I think the Giants will win, though I’m not sure if a full TD is too much. Since I can’t see how Ports won’t face eight or nine in the box on every play and I have no idea how the Redskins can pass their way out of that, I will give the points.
Rams @ Seattle(-8)
The Seabags are the popular pick for team most likely to be a lot better this year. New WR, healthy QB, etc. They might be better on that basis, but unless they do something about their defense, their O-line, and their running game, they still won’t be good. On the other hand, the Rams were awful and I don’t see why to expect them to be anything but awful again this year. I’ll give the points, though I’m worried this is a 1-TD game.
SNF
Bears @ Green Bay(-4.5)
The Bears are the media darlings this year, but I have an aversion to me-first whiners like Cutler and other than Forte, I’m not sure I can name any other Chicago offensive player (Devin Hester doesn’t count, he’s really a special teamer, or should be). They’re still the Bears on the other side of the ball, sure, but this is a defense that’s starting to get old and it seems like they always have somebody hurt. On the other hand, I’m not sure I can name anybody who plays for the Packer defense at all, so there is that. But I sure can name the guys on the Packer offense: Rodgers, Jennings, Driver, Grant… not shabby. And it’s in Lambeau, though it’s too early for any meaningful “frozen tundra” effects. Still, I think defenses have the advantage early in the season, and that says Bears to me, so I’ll take the points.
MNF
Bills @ New England(-10.5)
In the last ten games between these two teams, the Bills are 0-10 with a lot of bad showings. I expect Brady and the Pats to come out guns blazing to make a statement, so I will give the points.
Chargers @ Oakland(+9.5)
The Chargers are a popular Super Bowl pick for the AFC (along with the Pats), but I may never be sold on any team headed by Norv Turner, who has a career regular-season winning percentage of 44.8%. Oh, wait, they’re playing the Raiders on the West Coast. One could make the argument that the Raiders are the worst-run franchise in sports, though of course the Nationals, Lions, Bengals, and Timberwolves have compelling arguments here. Yeah, OK, Bolts cover.
Good luck, Al!