I’ll come right out and say it: I have absolutely no idea, in either game. I have no trouble seeing these going either way. Well, OK, I have trouble seeing the Bears blowing out the Packers, but I can see the Bears winning. And I have less than no clue on the Steelers and the Jets. So, given that, here we go…
Packers @ Chicago(+3.5)
So, right now the Packers have all the hype. More quietly, the Bears have actually been pretty good in the second half of the season, and they certainly played the Packers to a near standstill in week 17. However, if Aaron Rodgers has another week like last week (though that seems unlikely), it won’t matter what the Bears do. That was a performance for the ages.; the Falcons are good and really didn’t play that badly in that game, Rodgers was just that amazing. But that was in a dome and not on the Soldier Field slop. Oh, screw it, this game isn’t really about that. It’s about the side of the ball nobody is talking about: the Packers’ defense vs. the Bears offense. I don’t trust Cutler at all. The only reason he didn’t get picked twice last week is that the Seabags DBs can’t catch. If the Bears get behind and have to throw, there will be picks. Cutler has been too quiet on that front lately but I see him reverting to form when it really matters, and then getting all pouty about it. I’m taking the Packers to cover just because of Cutler.
Jets @ Pittsburgh(-4)
So here’s the thing. I’ve been a little sour off and on with the Steelers because their offense seems shaky to me at times. That seems like a Very Bad Thing™ when facing a Jets team that has just schemed out Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. On the other hand, Big Ben seems like he’s harder to beat via scheme, since what he does is salvage broken plays. On the other hand, the Steelers O-line is subpar and hurt, and I don’t think Polamalu is really fully healthy. Of course, then there’s the other factor, which is when the Jets have the ball. I don’t see them being able to just run over the Steelers the way they ran over the Pats last week. <sigh> Remember that I said I have no clue? Yeah, that. OK, here’s the pick: I think this will be a defensive struggle, it will probably be decided by a turnover or a freak kick return (cf. Jets vs. Colts two weeks ago), and I think whoever wins, wins by a field goal. Therefore, because the spread is more than a field goal, I am taking the Jets. I expect ugly football, in a good way, and a very tight game.