Colts @ Tennessee(+3.5)
Well, the Titans have been simply awful lately, but a big part of that is having no QB. Collins is back, which is sort of like having a QB. The Colts, of course, have been horrific lately, in a way that’s been wonderful to watch. They can’t run, they can’t stop the run, and their passing game has become so predictable Manning is throwing picks left and right. Whee! If Tennessee can take the lead early, I think they can cover this. But if they get behind, they’re dead. As much as I would love to see the Titans walk away with a win here, I think they’ll fall behind and have to throw, and that’ll be it.
Category: Sports
Sports commentary.
NFL Week 13
Sunday 1:00
Jaguars @ Tennessee(-3)
Look, the Titans are horrible right now. The Texans freaking shut them out. Have you seen how bad the Texans defense is? If they shut you out, your offense sucks monkey balls. Absolute gift, take these points.
Redskins @ New Jersey Giants(-7)
I think the Giants win, but with both Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks out, I don’t see the Giants being able to throw much. On the other hand, the Redskins are awful and seem to be getting worse, and the Giants managed to beat Jacksonville by 4, and the Jags are actually decent. Yeah, OK, give the points.
Browns @ Miami(-5)
Wow, the Dophins are 7-4 against the spread. Apparently the Browns plan to start Delhomme, even though McCoy is clearly the future there and actually seems to be playing better. Give the points.
Bears @ Detroit(+5)
I really, really want to pick the Lions here, but I just cannot bring myself to be that stupid. You’d sort of think the madman Mike Martz would not be the guy to straighten out head case Cutler, but the Bears haven’t been turning it over lately and the Lions… are still the Lions. Gotta go with the Bears here.
Broncos @ Kansas City(-9)
That’s a tidy pile of points, especially considering what happened the last time these two teams met. Oh, right, that was in Denver. It’s payback time for the Chefs, apparently. Still, that’s a pretty big number for what seems likely to be a shootout. Well, at least the Broncos don’t seem to be able to stop anybody, and they have been putting up points. Yeah, too many points… I’ll take the Broncos, but I’d really like that tenth point, just in case.
Niners @ Green Bay(-9.5)
See, now here I have no trouble giving a big number. The Packers are good, need to win to keep in the playoff hunt, and Frank Gore is out for the Niners. Blowout city.
Bills @ Minnesota(-5)
Excuse me? Exactly how many times have the Bills been blown out this season? None? Is there any reason whatsoever, especially since AP is hurt? No way, always take the points with the Bills if it’s more than a FG, especially when the opponent is as crappy as the Vikings.
Saints @ Cincinnati(+7)
New Orleans appears to be back to their “lighting it up” ways. Too bad for the Bengals, who don’t seem likely to stop them.
Sunday ~4:10
Raiders @ San Diego(-13)
Wow, look at Vegas, just daring us to take the Chargers. You know, normally I’d shy away from this, but the Chargers in the second half of the season, and at home… should be a rout. Give the points.
Falcons @ Tampa(+3)
I have to say, the Bucs are one of the biggest surprises of the season. That said, the Falcons are playing with purpose right now, and I don’t think they’ll let Tampa spoil any of it, now matter how improved they are.
Panthers @ Seattle(-4.5)
Man, who knows? More importantly, who cares? I mean seriously, other than like 20 people in Carolina and the people actually in the stadium in Seattle, who’s watching this game? Oh, right, the 5-6 Seabags are in first place in their division. How messed up is that? Fine, give the points.
Cowboys @ Indianapolis(-5.5)
Man, I wish people would stop slurping Manning. Now that he has no running game and a bunch of no-name receivers, he looks… average. Certainly not as good as Brady has looked when’s he’s had no running game and a bunch of no-name receivers. Manning’s career playoff record? 9-9, including six one-and-dones. Yeah, yeah, he has lots of other gaudy stats and will be a first-ballot hall of famer, but he’s not in the top five, and maybe not even the top ten, QBs of all time. Oh, right, the game. Now, the Colts probably still win this game, but I’m taking the points and hoping to see Mr. Average throw a few more picks.
Rams @ Arizona(+3.5)
That Niners-Cardinals game last week was one of the worst pro football games I’ve ever seen. Arizona is so bad it’s painful. Rams all the way.
SNF
Steelers @ Baltimore(-3)
I always love these games, because there’s a reasonable chance someone leaves the field in a body bag. They should be forced to play this game without kickers or punters—must go for it on every 4th down. How awesome would that be? Anyway, Pittsburgh has owned this one lately, but it seems to me the Steelers don’t have it in the bag. I think it’ll depend a lot on how well Big Ben is actually able to move, because I think the Ravens are going to bring the house at him. If he can’t move well, he’s going to get beat up and Ed Reed will probably run one back. If he’s actually OK, though, this will be a close one. But the spread is small enough that I’ll take the chance Ben is hurt, and I’ll go with the Ravens.
MNF
Jets @ New England(-3.5)
I want no part of this game. If this were real money involved, I wouldn’t get near this game with a 10-foot pole. I figure that the Jets are just about as likely to win as the Pats, so I will take the points since I have zero idea who’s really going to win this game.
Thursday NFLN game
Texans @ Philadelphia(-8)
The Iggles are the better team, no doubt about it. The only hope the Texans have is that it’ll turn into a shootout, because the porous Houston secondary sure isn’t going to be stopping Philly. On the other hand, the Philly defense has had some games where they’ve given up some decent numbers, so maybe there’s a chance… but that’s about it, a slim chance is all the Texans have. Give the points.
NFL Week 12 Picks
Bleah, sick as a dog…
Sunday 1:00
Vikings @ Washington(+1.5)
Wrong team favored, take the Redskins all the way. Just because Chili is gone doesn’t mean the Vikings will have a resurgence like the Cowboys.
Steelers @ Buffalo(+6.5)
I like the Bills to keep it close, which they’ve done a lot of this season. Lose, but keep it close.
Panthers @ Cleveland(-9.5)
Wow, Carolina is bad, but are they really 10 points worse than Cleveland? On the road, I think so.
Titans @ Houston(-6)
Please, the Texans shouldn’t be giving six to anybody right now.
Jaguars @ New Jersey Giants(-7)
Seems like too many points to me, as the Jags have been game of late.
Packers @ Atlanta(-2)
The spread seems about right. I won’t bet against the Falcons at home, but the Packers will probably keep it close. I like the Falcons here because they can actually run the ball–that’ll be the difference.
Sunday ~4:10
Chiefs @ Seattle(+2.5)
KC is not a very good road team. Seattle is traditionally a good home team. I think the Chiefs are a better team overall, but they can’t play all their games at Arrowhead, so I’m taking the points.
Dolphins @ Oakland(-2.5)
Thigpen still, right? Raiders.
Buccaneers @ Baltimore(-7.5)
Hey now, Tampa’s actually been good! Not sure how, but they have, and I think that’s too many points.
Eagles @ Chicago(+3.5)
The Bears, on the other hand, are not as good as their record. Philly will set that right; give the points.
Rams @ Denver(-3.5)
The Broncos seem to be crashing, despite the big number they put up on KC. i like the Rams defense to keep this one manageable and maybe even pull off the win.
SNF
Chargers @ Indianapolis(-3)
This is the game of the week, I think, Bolts vs. Colts. I hate picking against the Colts at home, and I hate picking against the Chargers in the second half of the season. And have you looked at the injury reports for these two teams? Yikes! While I’ll be rooting for the Chargers, I have to think the Colts at home just have a little bit too much vs. a very depleted Chargers squad.
MNF
Niners @ Arizona(+1)
I cannot pick a team with no quarterback, so that means… oh, yeah, that’s a problem here, isn’t it? Hmm. Well, the Cardinals are completely horrible, and the Niners only kind of suck, so I’ll take SF here, I guess.
NFL Week 11
I have to admit to a certain lack of enthusiasm about the season at this point…
Sunday 1:00
Bills @ Cincinnati(-5)
Buffalo may have only one win, but they’re great against the spread. They’ll keep it close, so I’ll take the points.
Lions @ Dallas(-6.5)
Look, if the Lions can’t beat the Bills, I don’t see them beating the Cowboys… that is, if the Cowboys actually show up.
Cardinals @ Kansas City(-8)
I don’t know what happened last week in Denver, but you can be sure the Chiefs got read the riot act after that one. Plus, it’s the Cardinals on the road. Give the points.
Texans @ New Jersey Jets(-7)
Unbelievably ugly loss for the Texans last week. I think that broke their will, I don’t think they show up this week.
Browns @ Jacksonville(-2)
Strangely, the Jags have it going on. Nobody will be there to see it, but I think they cover.
Raiders @ Pittsburgh(-7.5)
I don’t think the Raiders will win, but for some reason I’m thinking they keep it to a TD or less.
Ravens @ Carolina(+11.5)
This could get ugly very early on. The Ravens’ defense could probably win by a couple TDs. I’d give 13.5 without batting an eyelash, and I might give as much as 17. Baltimore all the way.
Packers @ Minnesota(+3)
The Vikings are in a tailspin and the Packers will want to stick it to them… and I don’t think the Vikings can stop them.
Redskins @ Tennessee(-7)
They paid how much money to re-sign McNabb? Because he’s putting up such great numbers? I don’t know, though, if a Titans team with no healthy QB should by laying a TD to anyone. I think I’ll take the points.
Sunday ~4:10
Falcons @ St. Louis(+3)
This is an important game for Atlanta, because they need to show they can beat a decent team on the road, and the Rams are a decent team, at least at home. I have absolutely no idea… Rams?
Seahawks @ New Orleans(-12)
Seems like too many points for two horribly inconsistent teams. I’ll take those points.
Colts @ New England(-4)
I don’t like this game one bit. The Colts can’t run the ball at all, and being one-dimensional against the Pats is never good. But what Pats are these? Certainly not the dominating defense of old. However, this is the Colts on the road on grass. I like Brady’s bunch to cover.
SNF
Giants @ Philly(-3)
WTF was that last week? The Giants, I mean. Completely didn’t show up at all. I think they’ll show up this week, but I’m not sure that’ll matter. I don’t think Vick will go nuts like last week, and the Eagles’ defense isn’t going to be great against the Giants, but I still like the Eagles to win.
MNF
Broncos @ San Diego(-9.5)
It appears to be the second half of the season, meaning the Chargers will almost certainly win, especially at home. But will they win by a lot? Not sure with Gates still being a question mark. Denver has to be pretty confident going in after last week. I say they keep it closer than 10.
NFL Week 10
Sunday 1:00
Lions @ Buffalo(-2)
Hey, how about that, the Bills are favored. I mean, it’s at home against the Lions, but still. Unfortunately, this is a bad matchup for the Bills, who are good against the run but last in the league in giving up… TD passes. I have the Lions here.
Jets @ Cleveland(+3)
Gang Green is living on borrowed time right now, and the Browns are hot. I’ll take the three and hope they can keep it close.
Panthers @ Tampa Bay(-7)
Carolina is in a dead heat with Arizona for that “worst QB situation in the league” award. Bucs cover this.
Bengals @ Indianapolis(-7)
Awesome when the Colts lose. First, it’s just generally great when they lose. Second, it depresses the spread for the next week. Indy at home is a lock here.
Titans @ Miami, pick
Yeah, I don’t think Chad Pennington off the bench is the answer. I like not having to give the points when I pick Tennessee here.
Vikings @ Bears(+1)
Minnesota is imploding badly. Now, the Bears are awful and simply cannot protect Cutler, and the Vikings have a pass rush, but the Vikings are horrific on the road and will find a way to lose this.
Texans @ Jacksonville(-1)
The real culprit in last weeks’ loss to the Chargers was the Texans’ secondary, or lack thereof. However, they sure got a lot of help from the refs; that was the single worst intentional grounding call I’ve ever seen. The tight end was right there! Totally ludicrous, and of course that’s not a reviewable call. Ugly. Anyway, the Texans’ other problem is that Andre is hurt and has been for most of the season. Owen Daniels is still out, Schaub is banged up (though playing)… I just don’t see it. And that’s why I’m picking the Texans, because they seem to go against what I expect.
Sunday ~4:10
Chiefs @ Denver(+1)
The Broncos are awful, but the Chiefs have been pretty bad on the road and are struggling. Look KC to rebound here.
Rams @ San Francisco(-5.5)
I know that the Rams are much better at home and the Niners are playing better, but I still like the Rams here getting almost a TD. I’ll take the points.
Seahawks @ Arizona(-3)
The sad part of this is that some team from this horrible division will get to go to the playoffs. Both of these teams are awful, but I think the Cards are worse, unable to hold a lead against the lowly Vikings. I’ll take the Seabags on the road, but only because they’re getting points.
Cowboys @ New Jersey Giants(-14)
Wow, that’s a truckload of points. Of course, the Giants have been lighting it up lately, and Dallas is a train wreck, which is fantastic—couldn’t happen to a nicer team & owner. This feels like too many points to give in an NFL game, but then this is Jon Kitna on the road. Yeah, OK, give the two TDs. Yikes.
SNF
Patriots @ Pittsburgh(-4.5)
The Pats have been doing it this year with smoke and mirrors, whereas I think the Stillers are the real deal, at least on grass. I think they’ll cover this at home.
MNF
Eagles @ Washington(+3)
WTF was all that nonsense from Shanahan? I think he’s actually an average coach without Elway, and the Skins have no answer for Vick. Iggles.
Week 10 Thursday NFLN
Ravens @ Atlanta(-1)
Both teams are 6-2 overall; Falcons are 4-4 vs. the spread, Ravens are 4-3-1 vs. the spread. Tossup, right? I’d say there are two factors here: (1) AFC is better this year, giving an edge to the Ravens, and (2) Both teams are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. The game is in Atlanta, so that gives an edge to the Falcons—and the spread is 1, which seems about right. No major injuries on either side—Roddy White is dinged up but expected to play—so this really is a tossup indeed.
So, what to do? I think Ryan has gotten over his early-season issues, and I think the “at home” effect is somewhat more powerful than the AFC-NFC difference, so I’m going with Atlanta.
NFL Week 9
So, I finally sat down and did results since… uhh, Week 2 was the last update. Oops. Anyway, I’ve been horrible and am now 50-62-4 while Al has been much better at 51-49-4. However, Al didn’t generate picks for Week 4 that I could find anywhere, either on the web site or in email, so I either get to miss a week or punt a week… that 3-12 week seems like a good candidate. So I’m still behind, but not by THAT much…
Sunday 1:00
Jets @ Detroit(+5)
I don’t see the Jets looking like that again against the Lions’ defense. Give the points.
Buccaneers @ Atlanta(-9)
I think the Falcons are better, but not a lot better. Seems like too many, so I’ll take Tampa.
Dolphins @ Baltimore(-5)
For some odd reason, the Dolphins play better on the road. I will take the points.
Patriots @ Cleveland(+4)
The Browns are playing pretty well right now, but New England is on fire right now. Gotta go with Brady’s bunch.
Cardinals @ Minnesota(-7.5)
Is Arizona awful? Yes. But the Vikings are looking at becoming the poster child for “implosion.” Not sure they’re a TD better than anyone right now, so I’ll take the points.
Bears @ Buffalo(+3)
Even though the Bills are 0-7, I think the spread is only 3 because they’ve been keeping it close a lot lately and Chicago has played like total crap. Seems good enough for me, take the points.
Chargers @ Houston(+3)
A brief look at the calendar reveals that it’s the second half of the season, meaning the Chargers are dangerous now. The Texans still can’t stop the pass and just kind of looked a little off against the Colts, plus they have the short week… I don’t like it. I’ll go with San Diego, though I hope I’m wrong.
Saints @ Carolina(+6.5)
Panthers still suck.
Sunday ~4:10
Giants @ Seattle(+7)
Just how well are the G-Men playing these days? Surely a hell of a lot better than the Seabags, right? Give the points.
Colts @ Philadelphia(-3)
Yes, yes, the Indy injury list is long. But (1) the AFC is much better than the NFC, and (2) Manning is the best small-game quarterback maybe ever. This is not a big game, really, so Colts.
Chiefs @ Oakland, pick
Methinks the spread is deflated because KC only barely escaped last week—but the Bills are the gamest winless team in recent memory. I think the Chiefs are OK, and will win this one, even on the road.
SNF
Cowboys @ Packers(-7)
Jon Kitna still at QB? Check. Packers have a LB playing out of his mind now? Check. Give the points.
MNF
Steelers @ Cincinnati(+5)
The Bengals were supposed to be better, but they can’t run, and the worst thing you can be vs. the Steelers is a one-dimensional passing team. Palmer throws what, three picks? Pittsburgh.
NFL Week 8
Not too much detail today, but a few comments here and there. First, an overall comment: Literally every home team is favored. Many are favored by 2.5… meaning Vegas doesn’t know, either. Home field isn’t really that big, is it?
Sunday 1:00
Bills @ Kansas City(-7)
OK, well, home field in KC probably is huge… and the Bills still stink. Chefs.
Jaguars @ Dallas(-6.5)
The Cowboys always get favorable spreads because people like them, but they shouldn’t be favored over anyone with Jon Kitna starting!
Panthers @ St. Louis(-2)
Gotta like the Rams at home against an offense that might do nothing.
Dolphins @ Cincinnati(-1)
Miami is better than their record. Cinci isn’t. I like getting a point here.
Redskins @ Detroit(-2.5)
At first I couldn’t believe this spread… and then I saw McNabb probably won’t play. Yeah, OK, I’ll take the Lions.
Broncos @ San Francisco(-2.5)
Alex Smith is out… which maybe means that they’ll actually be even better. Broncos are in a tailspin. Give the points.
Titans @ San Diego(-4)
OK, here’s one I really don’t get. Titans are 5-2 against the spread, Chargers are 2-5… and the Titans are ‘dogs here? OK, I’ll take the points.
Packers @ New Jersey Jets(-6)
Green Bay is a M.A.S.H. unit. Jets cover.
Sunday ~4:10
Buccaneers @ Arizona(-3)
Again, seems like the wrong team is favored. I’ll happily take these gift points.
Vikings @ New England(-6)
So, my brother, who is a Pats fan, was asking people who Pats fans would rather see, Favre or Jackson? He said the best answer he got before mine was “Tarvaris is probably worth a fumble and a pick, and Favre is probably worth two picks.” So it’s a wash, right? My answer: “Jackson, so that way the game announcers might actually talk about the game instead of slupring Favre for three hours.” New England.
Seahawks @ Oakland(-2.5)
No idea. Seattle?
SNF
Steelers @ New Orleans(-1)
The Saints still aren’t right, but Pittsburgh is playing really well. I’ll happily take the underdog Steelers.
MNF
Texans @ Colts(-5.5)
Houston can’t stop the pass, but Dallas Clark is out, Addai is out, Collie is probably out, Garcon and Wayne and Gonzalez are nicked up but will play, and the Colts are still favored by almost a TD. Why? The Texans can’t stop the pass, with Ryans out for the season they won’t be able to stop the run. The Colts defense probably can’t stop the Texans all that well, either, with Johnson healthy again (finally). If the Colts were fully healthy, I would easily give this. Right now I’m not so sure. Can the Texans really sweep the Colts? Nah… I’ll give the points.
NFL Week 7
Another quick one…
Sunday 1:00
Browns @ New Orleans(-13)
Cleveland is actually game, too many points. Browns.
Jaguars @ Kansas City(-9)
Seems like too many, despite last Monday’s horror show. Jags.
Eagles @ Tennessee(-3)
I like the Iggles here.
Bengals @ Atlanta(-3.5)
Falcons are better than they showed last week; give the points.
Redskins @ Chicago(-3)
Think Cutler can stay upright? Dunno, man… Skins.
Steelers @ Miami(+3)
Dolphins’ offense hasn’t played anyone playing D like this; give the points.
Rams @ Tampa Bay(-3)
St. Louis is better than people thought this year, but not so much away from home. Bucs.
Bills @ Baltimore(-13)
Now rooting for Buffalo to match the Lions 0-16. Probably won’t happen, but adds some interest to their games. Oh, and they get hammered here badly, Ravens run it up on them.
Niners @ Carolina(+3)
Have the Niners righted the ship? Hard to say. Panthers are awful, but I’m still not sold on the Niners going east and playing an early game. Take the points!
Sunday ~4:10
Cardinals @ Seattle(-7)
Uhh… Arizona has no QB, Seabags now have Lynch. Yeah, give the points.
Raiders @ Denver(-7.5)
Oakland showed us how truly awful they really are last week. Again, give the points.
Patriots @ San Diego(-2.5)
Dammit, that spread seems like the wrong direction. WTF do i not know about this game? Isn’t Gates nicked up, and both Naanee and Floyd are banged up, too? How are the Bolts favored here? I have to take these points, but somethings seems very wrong…
SNF
Vikings @ Green Bay(-2.5)
Minnesota looked like ass last week (again) and only won because the Cowboys continue to shoot themselves in the foot. Packers want revenge for last year here and I see no reason to think they won’t get it.
MNF
Giants @ Dallas(-3)
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? Speaking of “wrong team favored,” this baffles me. Do the Cowboys have the talent to cover this? Of course. Have they played well enough to cover this? Not even close. Giants and thanks for the points!