Tag: Mac stuff

It’s pundit/forecaster time again!

I did this for the September 10th event and had a mixed record. Both my locks hit, and I was 1 for 2 on my “likely” predictions, got none of the things I was hoping for, and correctly called 4 of the 5 in the “Not So Much” category. Not too bad. My miss in the “Not So Much” category was a partial miss, as there wasn’t anything at that event on the iMacs, but there was a refresh in late September, and I predicted November.

As a brief reminder, here’s the current state of the MacRumors Buyer’s Guide, and there’s still quite a bit of red here:

So, what am I predicting/hoping for? Well, something like this:

Locks
• iPad 5. This is pretty much a done deal; full case designs have been floating around the Net for a while now. I predict an A7X processor, same screen resolution, slightly smaller and lighter form factor (less bezel), and probably a somewhat improved camera, but not of the same class as the 5S. I’m guessing TouchID as well. Availability pretty soon after the event.

• iPad mini. It’s a lock that something will happen here. The less-certain question: Retina or not? I’m going to go way out on a limb here and suggest that Apple will bifurcate this product line, maintaing a lower-cost mini without a Retina display; almost immediate availability on this. Then, a “mini Pro” (not with that name) that has a Retina display and costs more. Apple hasn’t done this with iPads but has for MacBook Pros for some time, and so I think there’s precedent for it. The Retina mini will come out a bit later—maybe two weeks after the regular mini—but in time for the holiday shopping season.

• Mac Pro. This was my miss from last time, but I Apple is now running out of “fall” for a release timeframe, so I think this has to be the event for it. Availability will not be immediate, though, but again, in time for the holiday season (though that matters less for this one). Mind-blowing performance with similarly mind-blowing price, which will also be revealed. As noted, work owes me a new machine so I will be on this thing like white on rice.

• OS X Mavericks. Will ship coincident with the Mac Pro, mid-to-late November, because the Pro will require it.

Likely
• New Apple TV. Probably an A6 inside and maybe mild bump to memory and GPU, otherwise not too much different in terms of specs. I expect a facelift for the OS to look more like iOS 7. My guess is still no generic third-party app support, but if so, I’d order it immediately. If there’s no third-party support, then immediate availability. If there is, then I’d say mid-to-late November.

• MacBook Pros. I wasn’t high on these for the September event and I’m still not sure, but the rumor mill has been churning, and people seem to think this is more likely now. I’m going to guess Haswell processors, faster PCIE Express, general performance bump, but nothing too radical.

• iPod Classic. I’m guessing this will officially be dropped, though it won’t actually be announced that this is happening.

Still Not So Much
• Mac mini. I will quote myself from my September 10th prediction: “Apple has been letting the update cycle on these go longer than most of their other product lines. I’d guess late Spring or early Summer for this.” I’ll stand by that again.

• New displays. My guess is that 4K displays are coming from Apple, but not yet. I’m going to guess summer or fall of next year.

• MacBook Air. Nothing here as well. Again, probably next summer.

• iWatch. I doubt it. I think Apple execs are probably enjoying the crap out of the horrible reviews for the Galaxy Gear and are in no hurry to stop other vendors from putting out misguided guesses for a while.

• Bigger iPad. There are rumors about of a larger iPad. I’m going to guess that this might be coming next year, but again, not yet.

Time to play pundit! Here’s what I’m thinking/hoping is coming.

First, though, a brief bit of relevant context. if you head on over to the MacRumors Buyer’s Guide, right about now, you’ll see an awful lot of red dots, like this:

Yikes! I don’t remember a time in the last few years that Apple has had so many products that are, or are at least perceived to be, nearing the end of their life cycle. So what’s going down September 10th? Here’s my forecast:

Locks
• The new iPhone 5S and 5C appear to be pretty much guaranteed at this point, and the rumor mill has the street date for delivery of these new phones as September 20th. As I’m on the every-other-year plan and this is my off year, I’m not directly concerned about this—but I know a lot of people are. I will be very interested to see what the price points are for the 5S and 5C, though.

• iOS 7. Maybe not a for sure deal right on the 10th, but they will at least announce a firm date, and I’d be really surprised if that date was not either the 20th or a bit before then.

Likely
• A firm date for the new Mac Pro, maybe even immediate availability on the 10th. This thing looks amazing—probably carrying an amazing price tag, too—but I’ll bite the bullet and do it, since work owes me a new machine anyway. I think this is highly likely because I don’t see Apple dumping money into those very cool movie theater ads without a payoff soon.

• iTunes Radio. This has been in the rumor mill for quite a while, and my guess is we’ll finally get it, though I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual launch date was held off until the iOS7 launch—though that won’t be long, anyway. This will come with a rev to iTunes to support it, but probably a small rev.

I’m Hoping For…
• There have been some recent rumors that a new iPad (that’d be the iPad 5 if you’re scoring at home, or even if you’re alone) will also be announced. I’m skeptical, as I think this seems more likely to hit closer to Christmas, but if Apple does it, I’ll order one the same day. (I have a 3, which I love, but I’d love it to be thinner and with the Lightning connector. Again, I’m on the every-other-one cycle here.)

• A new Apple TV with 3rd-party developer support. That is, apps on the Apple TV. I don’t see this as very likely (great analysis over at Stratechery), but I’d love to get it. Again, this is something I’d order immediately if it were to come to pass.

Not So Much
• I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see a refresh on the MacBook Pro line, as that’s been a while, but waiting until later in the fall wouldn’t come as a huge surprise as well. I have a non-Retina MBPro that feels perfectly snappy now, so this one doesn’t feel urgent.

• The non-Touch version of the iPod line hasn’t been refreshed in a while, either, but again, I don’t see this happening quite yet. This would go well with a later fall iPad event in preparation for the Christmas season.

• iMacs. The last rev of the iMac line was pretty significant, and I’m thinking Apple will let that one run a bit longer. The usual cycle is about a year on that, and the last hit was November, and I certainly don’t see it coming sooner than that. Furthermore, if I were to bet, I’d bet on it being later—after the new year.

• Mac mini. Apple has been letting the update cycle on these go longer than most of their other product lines. I’d guess late Spring or early Summer for this.

• Max OS X Mavericks. Again, I think not yet. This will be an iOS event.

About six months ago in this space, I noted my possibly surprising lack of intention to get an iPad. I own pretty much every other Apple gizmo possible (now including both generations of Apple TV—at least they’re hooked up to different TVs), so why not an iPad? My reasoning was that the 2nd generation is likely to have better screen resolution, which is particularly important for reading.

No, Apple didn’t release a high-res iPad, but I went in anyway. So, what happened? Well, some discretionary money at work had to be spent by the end of the calendar year (which, frankly, I’d rather carry over for next year and spend on travel; technically, my employer actually owns the iPad) and I have some travel coming up for which I’d really like to have a computer, but I don’t want to lug my full laptop package. The last trip I tried that on I just brought my hackintoshed netbook with me, but I have to say, I actively dislike that machine for a variety of reasons, including (but not limited to) the crappy small screen, the vile trackpad, the crummy keyboard, and the weak battery life. Also, my wife really wants an iPad for Christmas and, being the good Apple zealot that I am, I didn’t want to go into supporting that experiment without some experience first.

So I’ve had an iPad for about a week now—what do I think?

First, yes, in a lot of ways it’s really a big iPod Touch. But while a lot of people mean that as a criticism, I don’t see it that way at all. I’ve been using an iPhone for a couple years now and so everything feels familiar. Plus, there is something highly significant about the “big” part. Having a larger screen than a phone makes a qualitative difference—it’s not just more, it’s something different. The iPhone is a fantastic mobile computer, but it’s still a phone. The iPad feels like a “real” computer. It’s not quite a replacement for my 15″ MacBook, but then neither is a crappy netbook. But it’s definitely better than the netbook for the tasks that I actually did on that machine, things like email and web browsing. And it’s definitely better for leisurely movie watching. I strongly suspect that Jobs is right and 7” isn’t really big enough for a really good tablet. If anything I think the iPad could be a smidge bigger, actually, without trouble, maybe 10.5” on the diagonal rather than 9.7”. The soft keyboard, which I actually don’t mind, wouldn’t be hurt by being a smidge bigger, but it would really suck for it to be any smaller.

That said, I’m eagerly awaiting the release of iOS 4.2. Not so much for the multitasking (which I appreciate, but is WAY overblown as a concern for end users; mostly I care in order to have an IM client running while I do other things, and that’s pretty frivolous), but because one of the apps I need to have for the iPad is waiting for 4.2. That’d be OmniOutliner. I feel like I think in hierarchies and I certainly organize by them, and I have probably thousands of OO documents on my hard disk. OmniGroup has said that the iPad version won’t be released until after 4.2 comes out, and so I wait with bated breath. This is my primary note-taking and organization app, so I feel slightly crippled in meetings without it.

So far, I’ve been pretty impressed with the software available for the iPad. I cannot for the life of me figure out why Apple didn’t include the iPhone “Clock” application with the iPad, but otherwise so far, so good. The iWork suite seems pretty good on the iPad though there are still some things I cannot quite grok in places (e.g., how do you edit master slides in Keynote?) and it’s great that lots of my favorite iPhone apps already have iPad versions, often the same version for no extra cost. It’s also nice to see other desktop Mac favorites showing up on the iPad, though usually for extra money. Special shout out to BareBones for the iPad version of Yojimbo, which is excellent, though it’d be even better if it supported iDisk sync. (Note to BBSW: I would pay good money for an iPad version of TextWrangler or BBEdit, too. I’d be willing to beta test!) And there are some other little bits of cool that are just too good to resist, like DisplayPad.

There are some weaknesses, too, of course. One of my current peeves on the software end is that you cannot install fonts on the iPad, which hoses many of my Keynote presentations. It’d also be nice if there was somewhat better feature parity between desktop and iPad versions of the iWork suite, again, particularly Keynote. That Facebook doesn’t have an iPad-native client is shocking, though if it sucks as much as the iPhone client, maybe that’s not such a bad thing. (Unfortunately, Mobile Safari doesn’t do chat in Facebook. I don’t care, but my wife does.) I actually expected there to be more difficulty in getting documents off and on the iPad, but most (though not all; I’m especially looking at you, MacJournal) apps support either Dropbox or iDisk and going through “the cloud” (I hate that term) isn’t too bad, really. Sidebar: Apple, get your freakin’ act together and either buy Dropbox or make iDisk as good. iDisk is an embarrassment compared to Dropbox. End sidebar, though actually that’d be a good tweet.

On the hardware end, the form factor is fantastic. The first time I held one I initially thought it might be a bit too heavy to hold while reading, but that hasn’t been a problem so far. The Apple case that props up one side of it is also terrific, though it’d be nice if it came in colors other than black. The battery life is truly excellent, as advertised. The biggest thing I’d like to see still is, of course, a higher screen resolution. I’ve gotten very used to the iPhone’s kick-ass display, and while I don’t expect 300+ ppi, I’d still really rather have 200+. I can see why people would want a camera, but I don’t see the lack of one as a big weakness.

Overall, I’m quite impressed, particularly for a 1.0 Apple product. For $500 it’s amazing. Maybe not so amazing at $830 for max storage and 3G, but if you don’t really need the 3G and aren’t a spacehog, I think it’s pretty remarkable for a company well-known for being expensive.

Anybody got a recommendation for a small travel Bluetooth keyboard? I’m not sure I really need it but if there’s a good cheap one, it might be worth a look…

I don’t own an iPad, nor am I likely to get one… at least, not yet.

Now, for some people that’s not saying anything, but many people who know me are more than a little surprised by this. I like tech toys, I like Apple toys in particular, and they aren’t prohibitively expensive. Also, I travel a fair amount, and travel seems like one of the better applications for an iPad. So why, I’ve been asked numerous times, don’t I have one?

The primary reason is that I don’t need one… OK, I can’t type that with a straight face. “Needing one” has never been a criterion for me. I’ll wipe the smirk off my face and try again.

The primary reason is that it’s a first-generation Apple product. I didn’t buy a first-generation iPod; I waited for the 3rd generation when the software got better and it supported AAC encoding (which was, at the time, much better at 128 kbps than MP3 encoders). I didn’t get a first-generation iPhone; I waited until the iPhone 3G, precisely for the 3G and third-party applications. (Note that I also skipped the 3GS, though I am, of course, getting an iPhone 4, as previously mentioned.)

So, by extension, what am I waiting for on the iPad? What feature is it lacking that prevents me from buying it?

There are a few things that I expect the 2nd generation iPad to have that I’d really like to see. For one, iOS 4 for the iPad would be really nice. But that’s just software. If I bought an iPad now, I’d have that when it shipped.

It’s not applications, as there are already some cool apps. However, what I would like to see before I commit is better integration between desktop and iPad applications. I’d like syncing a Pages or Keynote document between my iPad and my Mac to be a little more seamless. Note that Dropbox would be perfectly acceptable for this. (Incidentally, I’m with John Gruber on this—why hasn’t Apple bought this yet? Dropbox rocks!) But again, that’s just software, presumably. I could get an iPad now and it would just get better when this happened.

So it must be hardware. What in the hardware do I think will be there in future iPads that isn’t there yet?

Two words: Screen resolution.

The iPad is not huge, but it’s good-sized; the screen is 9.7” on the diagonal. However, the screen is a mere 1024 x 768 pixels, which is just over 130 pixels per inch. Frankly, when Steve announced this number up on the keynote stage, I was flabbergasted. I was really surprised that Apple would go with this.

Now, for lots of applications, that’s plenty. A typical ripped DVD (done with anamorphic scaling) produces a video file that’s something on the order of 850 x 360 pixels, so it’s plenty dense for movies. So, what’s the stumbling point?

Reading. As Apple’s own ads for the iPhone 4 note, the human eye can discriminate right around 300 pixels per inch. More than that makes very little difference, but up to that, your eye can still see the pixels. This is not a big deal for watching movies and standard applications, but for really serious reading, this matters—rather a lot, too, in terms of things like reading rate and eye strain.

So, what I’m hoping is that the second-generation iPad has a display that’s inspired by the iPhone 4. I realize that it might be prohibitively expensive to produce a 300+ ppi display at 9.7” size (the iPhone’s is only 3.5”). That’s fine—I’d settle for a split of the difference, around 230 ppi. I think that’d be high-res enough to make it actually tolerable as an e-reader.

I guess a camera would be nice, but mostly videoconferencing sucks anyway, so I don’t really care that much. Lack of one certainly wouldn’t prevent me from buying a future iPad, but I think enough people want this that it’s highly likely in the next revision anyway. (See also the front-facing camera in the iPhone 4.)

So, when Apple releases an iPad with 230+ ppi, then I’ll buy one. Hopefully by then the software will have caught up, too.

Obviously, I like Apple stuff, and I have for a long time. I even used to work there, some 20 years ago. However, unlike some tech pundits who shall remain nameless, I don’t think Apple should be given a free pass when they screw up.

Well, right now, Apple is screwing up, and doing so badly. Today is June 15th, the day that pre-orders for the iPhone 4 were supposedly going to start. I say “supposedly” because while the online Apple store is configured to take orders, it is not actually able to do so, at least not for me.

Bloggers and tweeters are already blaming AT&T for the snafu, but I have a hard time believing this is entirely the fault of AT&T. Actually, it cannot be entirely the fault of AT&T, because if AT&T can’t handle it, Apple should have known that and done something about it in advance.

However, despite that, and despite the fact that AT&T may indeed be overloaded, Apple is doing a terrible job of dealing with the situation, because as far as I can tell, they are doing exactly nothing about it. There are no warning messages on the store Web site, not even a “we apologize for the delays and difficulties some customers are having.” There’s nothing. There’s just a store Web site that randomly dies, and because the process is multi-step (and presumably not all the steps directly involve AT&T), there are many different points along the way where it can die.

Here are the steps after you click “pre-order” on the model you want:
1) Note what kind of customer you are (e.g., returning AT&T iPhone customer)
2) Provide your AT&T information (i.e., phone number, billing zip code)
3) Confirm or change rate plans (this may actually be multiple steps as well)
4) Add to cart

I don’t know what step 5 is, because I’ve never gotten that far. Dying after step 2 seems to be the place where blame might mostly be laid at the feet of AT&T, since that’s where the site says that it’s getting information from AT&T.

However, I’ve had it die after all four steps. Sometimes it says “Your session expired,” even though I’ve never left it idle for more than 10 seconds. Sometimes it literally says “Oops, there’s an error” with no explanation. Or “Your request couldn’t be processed” also with no explanation. This, from the company that prides itself on the user experience?

Give me a break.

Look, Apple, if you cannot actually provide the service, shut it down. It’s not for lack of trying, I’ve been at it for hours. (Fortunately, I’ve had other work to do while doing it, since it requires only infrequent user interaction—mostly just waining for the site to generate the next error message.) It’s especially annoying when Apple has clearly already handled the AT&T front end and the process dies when adding the final order to the shopping cart. That one cannot be laid at the feet of AT&T.

I think the problem at Apple is attitude. @gruber reflected this attitude well in his tweet: “Remember when that one Android phone was so popular that the carrier was overloaded attempting to process preorders?” Yep, everything is fine as long as customers are flocking to us with their money. If we’re making money, we must be doing it right! Ugh, by this logic, Microsoft did everything right in the 1990s, because they made truckloads of money then. Hey, if everything is rosy for the stockholders, everything must be great, right?

Except it isn’t, at least for the customer. What this fiasco says is “we’re not professional enough to handle our business.” Not that everybody always is, of course, but Apple’s corporate image is one of responding to the user. Apple needs to better understand what it can and cannot do. Apple didn’t try this with the last iPhone I bought, the 3G. You had to go to an Apple store on launch day and wait in line for hours. This was annoying, sure, but it wasn’t like Apple was trying to provide a service and failing, which is exactly what Apple is currently doing with pre-orders. Stevie told us all on the keynote stage that we could pre-order on June 15th. We can’t. It’s certainly OK for the Apple suckups to call Microsoft or Google out onto the carpet when they break their promises, but Apple somehow gets a free pass?

I mean, sure, ultimately, this will just be a blip on Apple’s record. Millions of people will (eventually) get their iPhone 4s, and they’ll be great and sleek and cool, and the Apple fanboy press will be abuzz with love for them, and Apple will make buckets of money, so it will all be great in the end, so who cares?

Well, maybe, but I’m worried. Apple is starting to be accused of turning into the company it used to call the Evil Empire, Microsoft. This is exactly the kind of anti-customer stance that plays into that perception. Is this really just a blip, or it it another step down a dark path? I hope it’s a blip, but I fear it’s a step. Time will tell.

Finally, as I noted in the title, this is a great commercial for Android. Even, or perhaps especially, if this is somehow all blamed on AT&T. Google execs must be drooling. “Look at what a crappy customer experience you get with AT&T. You know there are Android phones on Sprint, Verizon, and T-Mobile, right?” Somehow I’m betting this is not the message Apple wants to be sending, but I’m sure there are plenty of people hearing it loud and clear right now.

Look, I want to spend my money on an iPhone. More importantly, I want to do it when Apple said I would be able to do it. It shouldn’t be this hard… apparently, Apple neither needs nor wants my money. Or, more likely, they don’t give a crap because they know they’ll get it anyway. It’s a Joan Jett moment, Apple—I hate myself for loving you. Or something like that.