Well, last week was a train wreck for me and I’m running the risk of being completely out of it before we even get to the halfway point of the season. Ugh. The numbers: I went 4-10, Al went 6-8, so for the season I’m 42-43-3 and Al is still a rockin’ 47-38-3. I think it’s time to replace me with some very dumb regression model… On the other hand, I’m 6-0 in FF, so that’s something.
Sunday 1:00
Titans @ Kansas City(+9)
That seems like a lot of points, but the Titans seem to have it all together this year, so I’m going to go with Tennessee.
Chargers @ Buffalo(-1)
The Bills are 4-1 and at home against a 3-3 team, and yet the spread is only one. Something about the Bills seems fragile, but of course the Chargers haven’t exactly been the model of consistency. I like the Bolts’ talent to win out here, though, so I’ll take the point.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati(+9.5)
I can’t imagine that Fitzpatrick will fare very well against the Steelers’ pass rush, and Big Ben always plays well against the Bungles. I’m giving the big number.
Baltimore @ Miami(-3)
The Dolphins are legitimately not awful any more. The Ravens have a good D as usual—though they sure got lit up last week—and are again struggling to move the ball on offense. I guess I like Miami slightly better here.
Cowboys @ St. Louis(+7)
There are few things I like better than seeing the Cowboys implode. The Williams trade seems completely bizarre to me from the Cowboys standpoint; exactly how are Barber, Witten, Jones, T.O. and Williams all supposed to get the ball enough? And is Romo playing or not here? Ah, well, it doesn’t matter, the Rams are awful, last week notwithstanding. Dallas.
Vikings @ Chicago(-3)
I really don’t know what to do with this game, and obviously neither does anyone in Vegas, as we have the generic “home team by three” spread. I have no faith in Minnesota, though, so I’m taking the Bears.
Saints @ Carolina(-3)
Another game Vegas doesn’t want. I’m going to ride the current Drew Brees hot hand and say the Saints outright win this one.
Niners @ New Jersey Giants(-10.5)
I certainly expect the G-Men to win, but that’s an awful lot of points. I have to go with SF here with that many points.
Sunday ~4:10
Lions @ Houston(-9.5)
Bold move by the Detroit front office, unloading Williams for three picks. They’ve completely sold out this year for the future. I have no idea how the Lions stayed in the game against the Vikings last week, but without Williams who’s playing offense? Of course, they’re playing the Texans here. My boys have actually played quite well the last two weeks, but even I’m not ready to say they’re about to blow anybody out, even the Lions. I say they repeat last week in that they win, but fail to cover.
Jets @ Oakland(+3)
Did you hear what Warren Sapp was saying about the Raiders, that Al Davis was changing game plans and sending down plays? Crazy stuff. I hope Kiffin gets his money. Oh, and I see the Jets covering this—they seem to be on the upswing.
Browns @ Washington(-7.5)
I’ve seen Cleveland twice this season, week 1 against the Cowboys and last week against the Giants, and it’s kind of amazing that it’s the same team in both of those. Which Browns team do we get this week? And which Redskins team, the one that was on a mini tear or the one that lost to the hapless Rams? Too much uncertainty, and with that much uncertainty, that’s too many points. Cleveland.
Colts @ Green Bay(+1)
The Colts have looked good for exactly one game this year. Granted, that was last week, but the Packers seem like they at least kind of have it together, plus they’re at home. Green Bay.
SNF
Seahawks @ Tampa(-10.5)
The Seabags on the road starting a backup QB? Give the points.
MNF
Broncos @ New England(-3)
Al, I think you’re right, I think the Pats just aren’t good this year. I’ll take Denver and the points.
Sunday 1:00
Titans @ Kansas City(+9)
The Titans are playing well, but now that Young is healthy again, there are the rumblings of a controversy. I like the 9 points for the home dog.
Chargers @ Buffalo(-1)
I like getting the point here. The Bills are missing a key pass rusher and have injuries in the secondary while Rivers has been getting great pass protection. This will be Edwards first game back from his concussion.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati(+9.5)
Apparently the Steelers never lose to Cincinnati. And the Bengals lose a lot! The Steelers have some glaring weaknesses, but they should be able to handle a large number. Give the points.
Baltimore @ Miami(-3)
I don’t think the Dolphins are awful, but the Ravens are a bit better considering they have the #1 defense in the league. However, their offensive line is in shambles and Flacco is throwing lots of interceptions. If the Ravens can run the ball and Flacco limits the mistakes, they will win. I’ll take the 3 points.
Cowboys @ St. Louis(+7)
The Cowboys are falling apart, but surely they won’t lose to the Rams. The Rams are flush off a victory last week but will crash down to earth. I think Brad Johnson will probably limit the mistakes that Romo might make which could lose them this game. I’ll give the 7.
Vikings @ Chicago(-3)
I like the Vikings to take it to Chicago. The Bears have been somewhat exposed over the past few weeks. They can be run on, and the Vikings can run. I’ll take the 3 points.
Saints @ Carolina(-3)
Brees is putting up big numbers. I like getting the points.
Niners @ New Jersey Giants(-10.5)
So will Eli have another “old” Eli performance, or will he limit the mistakes? Have the injuries to the Giant D line finally taken their toll? They got no pressure on the quarterback in last week’s game. That will have to change this week against a team with a terrible O-line. I’ll take the Giants at home to cover.
Sunday ~4:10
Lions @ Houston(-9.5)
That’s a big number! But no Kitna and no Williams, and the team’s understanding that they’ve given up on the season, Houston should be able to run up the score at home. I’ll give the points.
Jets @ Oakland(+3)
Jets should really cover this. Oakland has no idea what’s going on.
Browns @ Washington(-7.5)
Last week Washington had a bunch of turnovers on route to their loss to the Rams. It is unlikely to happen again in that way. And the Browns feasted on Eli’s haplessness. Campbell has no interceptions this year! I like the Redskins to bounce back and the Browns to drop one. Give the points.
Colts @ Green Bay(+1)
I like the Colts. They looked great last week and at the end of the game before that. They’ve figured something out. Meanwhile Green Bay looks iffly losing 2 of their last three. I don’t think their D will be up to the task of stopping Manning when he’s in synch.
SNF
Seahawks @ Tampa(-10.5)
This seems like bad news for the Seahawks. It’s a big number, but without a QB, they’re in trouble. Give the points.
MNF
Broncos @ New England(-3)
New England isn’t good. The Broncos aren’t either, but I like getting the 3 points.