The good news is that last week I picked up two games on Al. The bad news is that I’m getting even further away from breaking even, as I went 6-8—meaning Al went 4-10. We suck, or at least we sure did last week. Al still leads for the season, I’m 48-51-3 and Al is 51-48-3. I was happy to see my Texans win a second game in a row, but beating the Lions by only a TD is kind of a dubious honor. And I always love seeing the Cowboys self-destruct, and that was in full swing last week as well. The Bills are clearly better than I thought, and I have no idea what the hell is going on with the Saints.
Anyway, on to this week’s picks…
Sunday 1:00
Raiders @ Baltimore(-7)
Oakland is 2-4 and Baltimore is 3-3, and it’s in Baltimore. Is that worth 7 points? Meh, I don’t like either one of these teams, but I think Oakland is still bad enough that even the punchless Ravens can cover this… maybe. Possibly. I hope. Ugh…
Cardinals @ Carolina(-4)
This is one of those “which version of each team will show up” kind of games. I think if this game were in Arizona, I’d go with the Cards. But it isn’t, so I’ll take the Panthers.
Buccaneers @ Dallas(-2)
Did I mention that it just warms my heart to see Dallas implode? While the bickering and finger-pointing is great theater, the real issue here is that the Cowboys are really banged up and Tampa appears to be putting it together. I like getting points here.
Redskins @ Detroit(+7.5)
If the Texans are seven points better than the Lions, Washington is certainly ten points better, even on the road. Were I in a suicide pool, this would be the game this week.
Bills @ Miami(+1)
This seems wrong to me, as Buffalo appears to be the real deal, and Miami, while improved, is still not in the top half of the league. I’ll certainly give the one point.
Rams @ New England(-7.5)
St. Louis has been a great story the last couple weeks, but I still don’t believe in them. I’ll give the points.
Chargers(-3) vs. Saints @ London
I have no idea what to do with this one—both of these teams should be better than they are. On a hunch that the Saints might be better than people think without Bush, I’m going to take the points.
Chefs @ New Jersey Jest(-14)
KC is absolutely hopeless, but WTF is up with the Jest? Should be a good week for Thomas Jones, but I just cannot give that many points when Gang Green is so inconsistent. I could see the Jets winning by 20, but I can see them honking this game, too. I’ll take the two TDs.
Falcons @ Philadelphia(-9)
OK, they’re saying Westbrook is back, but I still don’t think he’s 100% and if the Eagles have shown me anything this year, it’s that they’ve been overrated by the pundits. Eagles win but don’t cover this big a number.
Sunday ~4:10
Browns @ Jacksonville(-7)
Hmm, I think I’ve seen this situation before: Cleveland is 2-4 and Jax is 3-3, and it’s in Jacksonville. Is that worth 7 points? I’m not that surprised the Browns are down this year compared to last year, but the Jags puzzle me—they should be better than they are. I have to think they’ll start to turn it around eventually, but seven seems like too many against a Browns team that does still have some weapons.
Bungles @ Houston(-9.5)
Look, the Texans should win this game and probably will. But they have yet to beat anybody this badly, and I’m not giving a huge number like this until they do.
Giants @ Pittsburgh(-2.5)
If Parker were going to play, I’d give this. But I don’t think he’s supposed to, so I’ll take the points.
Seahawks @ San Francisco(-5.5)
Seattle on the road? Horrific. I’m taking the Niners.
MNF
Colts @ Tennessee(-4)
Man, that seems way too low. They’re just begging you to take the Titans here, which makes me worried. Oh, wait, the Colts can’t stop the run, and Tennessee leads the NFL in rushing. Uhh, yeah, give the points.
Whoa, I was terrible last week! Gotta bolster my lead with these picks:
Sunday 1:00
Raiders @ Baltimore(-7)
That’s a lot of points. But I think after the Raiders won a clutch game last week, they’ll come up with ways to suck this week. The Ravens defense can make a lot of teams look bad. I’ll give the 7.
Cardinals @ Carolina(-4)
I just can’t trust the Cardinals. They’ve looked good and they’ve looked really bad. They’re coming off the bye, and Boldin might play, which are both good things, but Carolina has a very good defense. I want to pick the Cards, but I have to take the home team. Maybe if it was 7..
Buccaneers @ Dallas(-2)
Right now, the Bucs are better than Dallas. The gameplan has to be for them to throw early and put some points on the board forcing Dallas to throw downfield which will cause turnovers. Take the points.
Redskins @ Detroit(+7.5)
The Skins need to rebound after a poor loss last week. They will win this big.
Bills @ Miami(+1)
What a bizarre line. Normally something like this shows that people know things that I don’t. And while that’s certainly true, I can’t come up with a scenario that makes me like the Dolphins here. I’ll take the Bills.
Rams @ New England(-7.5)
Wow, what a test for the resurgent Rams! Somehow the Pats embarrassed the Broncos (I was asleep and missed it). I assume turnovers were the primary reason. They’ll probably get more against the Rams, but that’s too many points for my blood. I’ll take the Rams and a reality pill!
Chargers(-3) vs. Saints @ London
In London, huh? I think the Saints have had a crazy travel schedule, despite the Chargers longer trip. I’ll take the Chargers and give the points.
Chefs @ New Jersey Jest(-14)
The Jets absolutely have to win this game and they should be able to handle the hapless chiefs. Maybe some extra incentive because of the coaches? Does that still matter? I think I’ll be bold and give the points.
Falcons @ Philadelphia(-9)
Westbrook has fractured ribs. I don’t care how tough he is, he’s not going to be effective. I’ll take the points along with the Falcons solid running game.
Sunday ~4:10
Browns @ Jacksonville(-7)
The Browns are so strange. They look good on some days and bottom-of-the-barrell on others. I guess that’s just life in the NFL. I don’t like their running game with Lewis and I love the Jax running game. I’ll give the points and take the Jags at home.
Bungles @ Houston(-9.5)
This seems like a large number for Houston to put up, even against the Bengals. I’ll take the points in this one.
Giants @ Pittsburgh(-2.5)
So the Giants looked bad two weeks ago with Eli coming back to earth, but they handled the Niners last week, mostly due to defensive line play. Other teams have proven you can get to Ben, and the Giants will. I’ll take the points.
Seahawks @ San Francisco(-5.5)
The Seahawks have a backup QB and Singletary is now coaching the Niners, and I’m rooting for him, so give the points!
MNF
Colts @ Tennessee(-4)
Seems like a low point total. The Colts basically had one good game this year. Something is terribly wrong, and I think it’s age. Their O-Line is too old, and their defense has no pop, especially without Sanders, which I think is a huge factor. I’ll give the points.