Month: December 2008

1/1, Hall of Fa…err, Outback: South Carolina vs. Iowa(-3.5)
I think the Hawkeyes are actually respectable, which I don’t think is the case for SC. I’ll take Iowa.

1/1, Citru…err, Capital One: Georgia(-8) vs. Michigan State
I didn’t really see UGA this year except for part of their game with Tech. I only saw bits of that game, and UGA had exactly zero defense in the bit of it I did see. However, it’s not clear to me that State knows which way is up in a bowl game, so I’ll go with the Dawgs.

1/1, Gator: Nebraska vs. Clemson(-2.5)
What a sucky bowl game this is. However, it might go better than that horrible Oregon State vs. Pitt affair. 3-0? Yech. Anyway, I have no idea about these teams, but I’m taking Nebraska on the theory that the Big XII is a hell of a lot better than the ACC.

1/1, Rose: Penn State vs. USC(-9.5)
Man, the Trojans must be so tired of this game. I dunno, I don’t see any way the Lions win this game, but that’s a lot of points. No, no, USC has blown the doors off the last several Rose Bowls, so I’ll give the points here.

1/1, Orange: Cincinnati(-2) vs. Virginia Tech
As much as I don’t like the ACC this year, I like the Big East even less. Hokies.

1/2, Cotton: Mississippi vs. Texas Tech(-4.5)
The Red Raiders will be pissed and nobody who hasn’t seen TTech can hang with them. Blowout city, give the points.

1/2, Liberty: Kentucky vs. East Carolina(-3)
ECU is actually decent, and Kentucky… isn’t. Pirates.

1/2, Sugar: Utah vs. Alabama(-9.5)
I think the tide will win, but I think Utah is going to show up in this game and keep it in the single digits. It’s a longshot, I know, but I have to pick someone to not cover, right?

1/3, International: Buffalo vs. Connecticut(-5.5)
Yeah, the Big East bites, but not like the MAC. The MAC is horrible, just horrible. I saw a 9-3 MAC team get pounded into the earth by a C-USA team. Huskies all the way.

1/5, Fiesta: Ohio State vs. Texas(-8.5)
Lotta points, but I don’t see any way OSU can hang with Texas. Texas is playing for the preseason #1 ranking for next year with Colt McCoy coming back, so they’ll actually be trying to put up a big number here.

1/6, GMAC: Tulsa vs. Ball State(-1.5)
Based on how good Rice and UH did against teams I thought would give them games, I’m going to take the points.

1/8, BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Florida(-3)
If this game were in Norman, I’d take the Sooners. But it’s not in Norman, so I’m going with the Gators.

Again, nothing like the last minute… I’ll update totals before the playoffs start. Also, one comment on the Poinsettia Bowl: that was awesome. I’ll be astonished if the supposedly big-time BCS Orange Bowl is even remotely as good.

12/30, Humanitarian Bowl: Maryland vs. Nevada(-3)
Maryland, just because.

12/30, Holiday: Oklahoma(-2.5) State vs. Oregon
All 3 of the Cowboys’ losses were against top-5 quality teams, so I like the Cowboys to cover this. I always like to watch the Holiday Bowl because it’s usually a wild game, but this year I’ll miss it because of:

12/30, Texas: Western Michigan vs. Rice(-3)
This is the correct spread, home team by a FG. Take a look at the over/under for this game: 74. Don’t expect any defense to be played here. I’ll take my Owls—hey, I’ve signed registration forms for some of those guys.

12/31, Armed Forces: Houston(-3.5) vs. Air Force
I’ve seen the Cougars play in person, and they stink. I’ll take Air Force in the upset.

12/31, Sun: Oregon State(-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh
I dunno, seems like the Beavers should be the better team here, I’ll give not quite a field goal.

12/31, Music City: Boston College(-4) vs. Vanderbilt
Vandy has no business being in a bowl despite their hot start. BC to cover this, barely.

12/31, Insight: Kansas(-9.5) vs. Minnesota
The Gophers have no hope in this game. Give the big number.

12/31, Peac…err, Chik-Fil-A: LSU vs. Georgia Tech(-4)
The Bayou Bengals just weren’t very good this year, were they?

And that’s it for now… my usual source doesn’t have the New Year’s Day bowls up yet.

Sorry for the late picks, I wasn’t feeling well last night…

Sunday 1:00
Rams @ Atlanta(-14.5)
Falcons.

Patriots @ Buffalo(+5.5)
New England.

Chefs @ Cinci(-2.5)
Bungles.

Lions @ Green Bay(-11)
Detroit will lose, completing the 0-16 season, but they’ll beat the spread.

Bears @ Houston(-2.5)
Chicago, who needs this for the playoffs.

Titans @ Indy(+3)
Take the points.

Giants @ Minnesota(-7)
Too many points, I’m taking NY.

Panthers @ New Orleans(+1.5)
Carolina.

Browns @ Pittsburgh(-11)
Willie Parker rule says Steelers.

Raiders @ Tampa Bay(-14)
Oakland has shown some life lately, they lose but not by 14.

Sunday 4:15
Jaguars @ Baltimore(-11.5)
Ravens.

Dolphins @ New Jersey Jest(-2.5)
Miami. Is anyone less consistent than Gang Green?

Cowboys @ Philly(-1)
Dallas.

Seahawks @ Arizona(-7)
Cardinals.

Redskins @ San Francisco(-3)
Washington.

SNF
Broncos @ San Diego(-9)
Too many points, I’ll take Denver.

Heh, heh. Have I mentioned how much I love seeing the Cowboys implode? Get on the tube and whine some more, T.O.

Sunday 1:00
Bungles @ Cleveland(-3)
The battle for Ohio suckage—this should be a real ratings winner, especially in the same time slot as the Steelers and Titans. Seriously, even people in Ohio won’t watch this. Oh, yeah, a pick. Uhh, Bengals, just because?

Saints @ Detroit(+7)
Lions lose, but beat the spread. 0-16 still in sight.

Dolphins @ Kansas City(+3.5)
Miami really needs this game. They’ll win by more than a field goal.

Cardinals @ New England(-9)
Seems like a lot of points, but with Boldin probably out, maybe. I mean, it’s not like the Cardinals have anything to play for at this point. OK, I’ve talked myself into it… Pats.

Niners @ St. Louis(+5)
Rams are a train wreck, I’m going with SF all the way.

Steelers @ Tennessee(+1)
A quick check of the injury report says that Willie Parker is playing, therefore I’m picking the Steelers.

Chargers @ Tampa Bay(-3.5)
The Bolts have looked better of late, but this is travel to the east coast for a 1:00, and the Bucs need this. I’d be happier with a 3-pointer because I think it may be close, but I have to take the Bucs.

Sunday ~4:10
Bills @ Denver(-7)
Buffalo is just rolling over and playing dead these days. Give the points.

Texans @ Oakland(+7.5)
Wow, I’m actually picking the Texans, and feeling optimistic about it.

Jets @ Seattle(+3.5)
Gang Green really needs this game, and fortunately for them, the Seabags suck.

Falcons @ Minnesota(-3)
I hate this game, because I hate picking the Vikings, but they’ve been great at home and the Falcons have been only so-so as a road team. Ugh, picking Tarvaris leaves a bad taste in my mouth, but I have to do it.

Eagles @ Washington(+5)
Philly has been on fire lately, and that’s enough for me.

SNF
Panthers @ New Jersey Giants(-3)
I don’t like the way the G-Men have been playing, and Carolina has it going on. I think they’ll make this a real contest, so I’ll take the points.

MNF
Packers @ Chicago(-4)
Ahh, Green Bay. What on earth happened to you? I thought they might have a respectable season this year, but when you drop one at home to Houston, you have a problem. I’ll take the Bears.

It’s fun to have extra NFL games, but these wild pick schedules are killing me…

Ravens @ Dallas(-4.5)
Man, the over-under is 39… given the kind of defense these teams have been playing lately, I’ll take the under. Oh, right, we’re not doing that. Ugh. Well, I don’t like the rookie QB on the road against a team that’s been applying a lot of pass rush lately, but then I’m not so sure about the Cowboys, either. Grr. OK, too many points for a game that will probably be decided by a FG.

Man, I cannot believe these start tomorrow night already.

12/20, EagleBank: Wake Forest(-3) vs. Navy
Off to a terrific start, I have no clue whatsoever… Wake Forest, for no good reason.

12/20, New Mexico: Colorado State vs. Fresno State(-3)
I have to like the Bulldogs here, as I haven’t heard a thing about CSU all year long.

12/20, St. Petersburg: Memphis vs. South Florida(-11.5)
That’s a lot of points, but Memphis is pretty bad. I’ll give them.

12/20, Las Vegas: BYU vs. Arizona(-3.5)
The Cougars had a good start but then fell off a little bit late. On the other hand, the Wildcats have done nothing particularly meaningful all season long. I’ll take the points.

12/21, New Orleans: Southern Miss vs. Troy(-4.5)
I’ll give the points, I guess.

12/23, Poinsettia: Boise State vs. TCU(-2.5)
I really want to watch this game, but I’ll be on an airplane flying into some very cold air as we head up to visit my folks in Minny. Should be a great game. Odd that the higher-ranked team is the underdog. Vegas must know something I don’t so I’ll go with the Horned Frogs…

12/24, Hawaii: Hawaii vs. Notre Dame(-1)
The Domers suck, I’m taking Hawaii because I have to root against ND anyway.

12/26, Motor City: Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan(-6.5)
CMU… no, not Carnegie Mellon, but rather Central Michigan, is actually non-sucky. I think the MAC is maybe not too bad this year. I’ll give the points.

12/27, Meineke Car Care: West Virginia(-1.5) vs. North Carolina
I’m going to take the points on the basis of UNC doing well against the BigLeast this year, and it being in Charlotte, so therefore full of UNC fans.

12/27, Champs Sports: Wisconsin vs. Florida State(-5.5)
The Badgers suck—anybody who lost to Michigan sucks. However, I’m none to impressed with FSU this year, either. I like the Badgers to keep it close, they’ve played well in bowls of late.

12/27, Emerald: Miami vs. California(-8)
I’m down on the ACC this year, so I’m going with Cal to cover, but I have to say I feel like it’s too many points. Oh, well, go Bears!

12/28, Independence: Northern Illinois(-1) vs. Louisiana Tech
Man, how desperate are bowls for teams? A 6-6 MAC team got a bid? I have no idea here. I guess I’ll go with LaTech because, uhh, because they’ve had the hot hand lately.

12/29, Papajohns: NC State vs. Rutgers(-7)
Meh. Seems like a pretty even game, so that’s too many points. I will take the TD and hope.

12/29, Alamo: Missouri(-13) vs. Northwestern
Too many points, I like the Wildcats to make the most of their bid and keep it under 10.

Man, these Thursday games are killing me…

Colts @ Jacksonville(+6)
Only six? What am I missing here? Oh, Marvin Harrison is out, and Addai might still be out, and Sanders might still be out, and Dallas Clark is nicked up, and… and who the hell cares? Seriously, watch some film of the Jags this year. I’m giving the six.

First, a long-overdue standings update. Week 13 I went 9-7 and Week 14 I went 8-8. Amazingly, Al also went 9-7 and 8-8. Week 14 is particularly striking because we made many different picks, and yet still ended up with the same record. So, for the season, I’m 94-95-4 (with a +4 week in the bank) and Al is 92-97-4.

And, of course, the Thursday game was a push, so it doesn’t matter that we weren’t on top of it…

So, without further ado, the Week 15 picks:

Sunday 1:00
Buccaneers @ Atlanta(-3)
Tampa’s too beat up, I have to go with the Falcons here.

Redskins @ Cincinnati(+7)
Ugh. The Bungles are indeed awful, but I’m not real impressed with the Redskins of late, either. No, no, I can’t be taken in by this—the Cincinnati suckage is such a strong force, I can’t go against it. Washington.

Titans @ Houston(+3)
How is the spread only three? Bizarre. Titans easily cover this.

Lions @ Indianapolis(-17.5)
I firmly believe the Lions will indeed make it to 0-16, but that’s a crapload of points. The Lions have been keeping it closer than that, and I think a late, garbage-time TD from Calvin Johnson keeps them within the spread.

Packers @ Jacksonville(+1.5)
Both teams just aren’t good. However, the Packers are especially bad against the run, and the Jags at least know how to do that. I’ll take Jax.

Chargers @ Kansas City(+5.5)
The Bolts are better, but I think they’re only about a FG better in KC, so I’ll again take the points.

Niners @ Miami(-6.5)
Lately, the Niners have looked pretty good and the Dolphins are not as good as their record. However, Gore is going to be out this game, and I don’t see the Niners doing much without him—they’ll see a lot of zone this week and it won’t go well. Fish cover (even though dolphins aren’t fish, I know…).

Bills @ New Jersey Jets(-7.5)
Wow, the Jets have been reeling lately and they have to give more than a TD? Oh, yeah, because Losman is starting for Buffalo. Ugh. Yeah, OK, give the points.

Seahawks @ St. Louis(+2.5)
Combined record of these teams: 4-22. Ouch. I think that Seattle is somewhat less bad, so I’ll give the points.

Sunday ~4:10
Vikings @ Arizona(-3)
Two words make this pick easy: Tarvaris Jackson. I’d like one serving of Cardinals here, thanks.

Steelers @ Baltimore(-2.5)
And how about that Steelers game last week? I turned it on, it was 13-3 in the 4th, and Pittsburgh almost immediately got stuffed on the one on 4th down. Looked over. But no, the Cowboys gave it away, and now they’re imploding again, which is always sweet. Oh, now, this pick. Well, my “Willie Parker policy” has been very effective lately, and he’s supposed to play, so I’ll take Pittsburgh here.

Broncos @ Carolina(-7.5)
Oh, look, the Panthers at home against another team that can’t stop the run. The only worthwhile wager here is on which of the Carolina RBs will have more yards. Panthers all the way.

Patriots @ Oakland(+7)
New England is figuring things out, and the Raiders are still the Raiders. Give the points.

SNF
Giants @ Dallas(-3)
OK, so did the Giants get the stupid out of their system last week? And how much fun is it to see Dallas implode? Personally, I’m hoping T.O. takes a swing at Witten on the sidelines this week and then Witten beats him senseless. Oh, yeah, and I’ll take the points.

MNF
Browns @ Philadelphia(-14)
The Eagles seem to be putting it together again, and Wesbrook finally seems healthy. I don’t see any way the Browns win this game, but 14 is a heck of a lot. I have to take ’em.

Geez, I almost forgot about this…

Saints @ Chicago(-3)
Ahh, yes, yet another “we have no clue, either” spreads. i think it’s cold in Chicago, right? Bears.

OK, so we both blew the Raiders-Chargers game. Geez, the Raiders look awful. Who could lose to them?

On with the rest of the picks…

Sunday 1:00
Jaguars @ Chicago(-7)
Jax looked unbelievably bad against the Texans—I think they’re just mailing it in at this point. Bears.

Vikings @ Detroit(+10.5)
And, speaking of mailing in the season, there’s the Lions. I don’t see why people think this is the game the Lions will finally win. Not only will they lose, they’ll lose big… again.

Texans @ Green Bay(-6)
The Texans have a little momentum now, but let’s not get carried away—this is a road game in the cold. Packers have no trouble covering this.

Bungles @ Indy(-13.5)
Man, favorite city this week. This one gives me slight pause, though, as that’s a bucket of points. But then, Cinci’s season has kind of kicked the bucket… no, no, that’s too many points, I have to take them.

Falcons @ New Orleans(-3)
Have these people seen the Saints so-called defense? Obviously the Vegas guys know something I don’t, as the wrong team is favored here. Hell yeah I’m taking these points.

Eagles @ New Jersey Giants(-7)
That was a fantastic display last week by the Iggles, but even with all the Plax nonsense, this is not the Cardinals defense and this is not in Philly. I say the Giants cover.

Browns @ Tennessee(-14)
Who, exactly, is playing QB for the Browns now? On the road? OK, so I don’t think the winner of this game is in doubt. But will they cover the gaudy number? Well, seeing as how the Browns can’t tackle worth a crap, yes, I think the Titans will cover the big number.

Sunday ~4:10
Dolphins vs. Bills @ Toronto, pick
Someone please explain to me why the Bills gave up a nice, cold-weather home game against their most hated enemy to play indoors where the cold will be nullified? This is bizarre, I’m taking Miami.

Chefs @ Denver(-9)
I have exactly no freaking idea what to do with Denver. When their offense clicks and their defense even kind of shows up—and kind of showing up is about as good as it gets for this defense—they look great. And other games they don’t even seem to want to bother. Look, I know it’s the Chiefs on the road, but that’s just too many points for me with the wildly inconsistent Broncos.

Jets @ San Francisco(+4)
I’m glad it’s a small number because the Niners have looked a lot better lately. Still, if the Jets want to prove they’re really playoff worthy, they have to win a game like this. I’ll go with Gang Green here.

Patriots @ Seattle(+6.5)
The Seabags are a train wreck this season, I’m giving the points.

Rams @ Arizona(-14)
Ahh, yes, the Cardinals back home against a horrible team. What a nice way to rebound and erase the memory of last week’s blowout, with a blowout of their own. Cards, and Haslett gets the boot at the end of the year.

Cowboys @ Pittsburgh(-3)
Warning, Will Robinson, warning! The “home team -3” spread means not even Vegas has any idea what’s going on in this intriguing game. I, however, have simple heuristic for picking Steelers games this year. When Willie Parker plays, they cover. Clayton is reporting that he’ll play in the cold and possibly light snow, which doesn’t exactly favor Dallas. I’m taking the Stillers here.

SNF
Redskins @ Baltimore(-5.5)
I think Washington is done. I was expecting this to be Ravens by three, however, so the number again gives me slight pause. No, forget it, Baltimore by six or seven here.

MNF
Tampa Bay @ Carolina(-3)
Hmm, again, Vegas has no idea, either. That’s good, because I have no clue here. I guess the matchup has to favor Carolina, as the vaunted Tampa 2 isn’t that great against the run, and the Panthers figure to run the ball like 40 times. I don’t know, I’m just making shit up here to justify picking somebody… yeah, sure, I’ll go with that. Panthers, but I really have no idea.