First weekend in the books, and all kinds of exciting stuff. Al and I are off to a decent start, 9–7 for me and 10–6 for Al. I still think the Giants should have covered that spread… stupid half-point.
Some storylines from week 1 that impressed me… Steelers defense looked great, we’ll see what the absence of Polamalu does. Lions still have no defense, or maybe the Saints offense really is that amazing? The Texans looked just plain horrific in pretty much every phase of the game, I take back everything good I said in the preseason. If they play like that the rest of the season they’ll be lucky to be 3–13. I think the Jets are getting overhyped, because I thought that was more the Texans being horrible than the Jets looking particularly good.
The Pats defense looked very, very shaky, and Brady didn’t look like Brady until the end. The Raiders look much improved, especially on defense. I’m not sold on the Chargers, either. Such a shame to see Cutler stink it up… I hope all his games go like that this season. Broncos looked horrible, but won anyway… good karma for getting rid of Cutler? Is Delhomme done? Is the Niners defense actually good, or is the Cardinals offense out of sync? How did the Ravens allow KC to score 24? I missed that one. AP’s run against Cleveland was sick. The Dolphins have to hold on to the ball to win; they would have at least beat the spread if they hadn’t handed Atlanta the ball so many times. The Rams appear to want to give Detroit a run for worst team; how awful did they look?
Wow, lots of stuff. I love Sunday Ticket…
Anyway, on to the Week 2 games.
Sunday 1:00
Panthers @ Atlanta(-6)
Something is horribly, horribly wrong with the Panthers. I’m staying away from them until they win one.
Vikings @ Lions(+10)
OK, look, the Vikings beat the Browns by more than this on the road… are the Lions better than the Browns? I think not. Give the points.
Saints @ Philadelphia(+1)
With McNabb either out or very, very gimpy, I’m taking the arena football team here to win.
Bengals @ Green Bay(-9)
Only nine? Really? I thought the spread would be more like 12 or 13. I’ll happily give the points.
Cardinals @ Jacksonville(-3)
Ahh, I see Vegas has no idea here, it’s that default “home team by 3” spread. The problem is that I have no idea either. I was pretty underwhelmed with the Arizona defense last week, but I had about the same reaction to the Jags’ offense.
Raiders @ Kansas City(-3)
I dunno, this feels weird… I’m picking the Raiders! I like getting points, the silver and black showed signs of life last week.
Patriots @ New Jersey Jets(+3.5)
New England has owned the Meadowlands, and I really think the Jets are not as good as everyone seems to think after last week. Now, the Patriots aren’t quite all the way back, either, especially on defense, but I expect them to do more to confuse Sanchez than the zilch the Texans threw at him, so I’ll give the points. (I can easily see losing on the half-point as the Pats kick a last-second field goal for the win…)
Texans @ Tennessee(-7)
OK, so, the Texans can’t tackle, and if the opposing defense can double-cover Johnson and still stop the run, the Texans have no answers. Titans cover handily. Should be a big day for Chris Johnson.
Rams @ Washington(-10)
St. Louis is officially on the “do not pick until something changes” list. Even against the Redskins, who showed a bit more life than I thought last week.
Sunday ~4:10
Buccaneers @ Buffalo(-4.5)
Oh, look, T.O. is already criticizing his quarterback… I thought it would take at least until October. I actually think this game will go worse for the Bills because the Bucs will try to run and hold the ball, and will keep the Bills’ defense on the field for the nearly the whole game, and will keep it within a field goal.
Seahawks @ San Francisco(-1)
There’s something about the Niners that appeals to me… they seem to really be inspired on defense. That’ll keep them in a lot of games in a weak division, despite their suspect offense. At home, I’ll give the single point.
Steelers @ Chicago(+3)
Only six? Really? The Bears are down their defensive leader… well, I guess the Steelers are too, but even without Polamalu, the Pittsburgh defense is better than Green Bay’s. Cutler isn’t what you’d call a master at reading coverage or blitzes and so I expect Pittsburgh to throw the kitchen sink at him, and while he probably won’t throw 4 picks again, I don’t see him looking good. I would have said Pittsburgh by about six here, so I’ll gladly give the points.
Browns @ Broncos(-3)
Damn, once again, neither I nor Vegas has any idea. These teams were both expected to be bad, and they both delivered on that in week 1. Denver tends to be a little better at home… I guess I’ll take the Broncos, though I don’t really have any reason to go one way or another. If this were money, I’d stay far away from this game.
Ravens @ Chargers(-3)
No LT? Against that defense? I’m not sure the right team is favored in this matchup. I’m going with Baltimore.
SNF
Giants @ Cowboys(-3)
Wrong team favored… well, maybe. It is September. Were this December, it’d clearly be the wrong team favored. I like the Giants to keep it close and maybe even pull off the upset, so I’ll take the points.
MNF
Colts @ Miami(+3)
The Dolphins are going to need more than a field goal’s worth of help against the Colts, even if Indy is missing their #2 receiver. (This was inevitable, since Gonzalez is on my fantasy team. This is what I get for picking a Buckeye.) Anyway, I’ll take Indy here.
Should be a fun week…
How did we survive without the NFL?
Sunday 1:00
Panthers @ Atlanta(-6)
Decent amount of points, but the Panthers didn’t look good at all last week and the Falcons proved they could win through the air. I’ll give the points.
Vikings @ Lions(+10)
The Lions are still terrible, plus a rookie quarterback (which maybe doesn’t mean much anymore?), whatever. I’ll give the 10 even if all they do is give the Peterson on every play.
Saints @ Philadelphia(+1)
I like the Saints to run up the score on this one. Even with a cipher defense, will Philly be able to keep up?
Bengals @ Green Bay(-9)
I don’t like the number. I think this game will be closer simply due to the Bengals defense, which is underrated. I’ll take the points.
Cardinals @ Jacksonville(-3)
Last year the Cardinals struggled mightily in East Coast games. I think I like Jacksonville! I don’t like the Cardinals pass defense as much and I expect Garrard to have a better game today.
Raiders @ Kansas City(-3)
There is no way I’m going to lay points with the Chiefs. Go Raiders!
Patriots @ New Jersey Jets(+3.5)
Ryan will scheme well against a gimpy Brady and Belichick will scheme well against a rookie Franchez. Personell-wise, the Pats are just better. I don’t think it will be all that close. Pats.
Texans @ Tennessee(-7)
So the Texans did nothing and Tennessee played great but lost a tough emotional game. I feel like I’m being goaded into laying these points. I will take the touchdown and see if the Texans can bounce back. They certainly have something to prove…
Rams @ Washington(-10)
Bulger has looked terrible. If he does so again, I think it’s time for a switch. The gameplan for the Rams is Stephen Jackson over and over again. I think the Redskins will win, but can they muster a double digit victory. The Rams beat them last year. Not happy about it, but I’ll give the 10.
Sunday ~4:10
Buccaneers @ Buffalo(-4.5)
I just don’t think the Bucs can play with anyone. I’m tempted, especially after the Bills heartbreaker last week, but I’ll give the points.
Seahawks @ San Francisco(-1)
This is a HUGE game for San Francisco, but Seattle is likely thinking ahead to the Bears and the Colts. I like the Niners, despite the resurgent (healthy) Seahawk air attack.
Steelers @ Chicago(+3)
Cutler looked bad and Urlacher is out. I see no reason to pick Chicago. I expect a big win for the Steelers.
Browns @ Broncos(-3)
Browns, I guess. Meh.
Ravens @ Chargers(-3)
This looks like it’s going to be fun game. LT is dinged up, so that’s a factor. Also, Rivers got a lot of pressure against the Raiders. The Ravens are a lot better at that sort of thing. I like the Ravens by a field goal. Take the points.
SNF
Giants @ Cowboys(-3)
Huge expectations for the Cowboys, based on their recent history of doing well early and the opening day of the MonsterDome. Look for the Giants to spoil the house party. Jacobs and Bradshaw will just keep running it up the middle. The Cowboys won’t be able to stop it because Manning and his receivers are more than capable of completing short third downs. I love getting points in this game.
MNF
Colts @ Miami(+3)
Based on what I saw last week, the Colts should be able to answer anything Miami will muster offensively. If Miami runs the ball more and doesn’t turn it over, maybe they’ll keep it close, otherwise, this should be a big game for Manning. I’ll give the points.