I’m having a good season, last week I went 9–7 again and for the season I’m now 27–21, six games above .500. Not shabby. However, it’s meaningless, because Al is simply lighting it up. 13–3 last week, and now 34–14 for the season. That’s freakin’ 20 games over .500, after only three weeks. Al, this is your season to go to Vegas. Holy crap, Al, give a guy a chance. I’m doing well and I’m down 14 games. We’re going to be talking about your magic number by Halloween. However, Al did turn in a 4–10 week last year, and so I have to hope that I can keep the 9–7 going and Al will cough up a few of those… Oh, and I want a pony.
Sunday 1:00
Lions @ Chicago(-10)
Detroit had their moment in the sun last week, and the Bears seem to be figuring things out. I’m going with the home team here, but again, I’d love to see the Lions pull one out, I can’t imagine how it could happen, particularly in Chicago.
Bengals @ Cleveland(+6)
How is the spread only six? The Browns are completely horrific, and the Bengals are actually OK this year.
Raiders @ Houston(-8.5)
I know Oakland is awful, but so are the Texans. I think the home team will prevail, but not by that much—that’s just too many points. The Texans are starting some guy they signed off the street at safety. Even if Jamarcus throws directly at the Texans’ secondary, they still won’t catch it. Oakland ought to just hand off to McFadden on every play, since Houston can’t stop the run, either. Texans win, but not by nine.
Seahawks @ Indianapolis(-10)
Hasselbeck is most likely still out… Seattle has no chance whatsoever. Give the big number.
Titans @ Jacksonville(+3)
I was pretty unimpressed with both of these teams last week, but you have to figure Tennessee will get off the schnide sooner or later. I say it’s this week, but will it be by more than a FG? I say this is a push.
Giants @ Kansas City(+9)
The Chefs might not get the ball past midfield. Nine is not nearly enough.
Ravens @ New England(-1.5)
Someone in the Pats coaching staff remembered last week that it’s possible to run the football, and that worked out pretty well. However, I really think the Ravens are one of the best teams in the league. I’ll go with Baltimore, especially since Moss is dinged up.
Buccaneers @ Washington(-7.5)
Wow! I really don’t think the Redskins are more than a touchdown better than anybody, even the hapless Bucs starting a rookie QB. Again, I think they’ll win, but they won’t cover this, especially since Portis might not play.
Sunday ~4:10
Bills @ Miami, even
Were this for real money, I wouldn’t get anywhere near this game… I have absolutely no idea. I was planning on just taking whoever was the underdog figuring I could use the points—but there are no points. D’oh. Coin says… heads, and buffaloes have more impressive heads, so I’m taking the Bills. <shrug>
Jets @ New Orleans(-7)
I’m really looking forward to this game. I think the big stage and an improved Saints defense will give New Orleans the win here, but the Jets might be able to keep it close. I’m taking the team from New Jersey because it’s a full TD.
Cowboys @ Denver(+3)
Yeah, sure, Denver is 3–0 but against some of the worst competition possible the last couple of weeks. The Cowboys haven’t looked all that impressive, either, so this might actually be a game. I’ll take Dallas, though.
Rams @ San Francisco(-9.5)
Speaking of teams that might not get across midfield, we have the Lambs. I’ll give this big number as well.
SNF
Chargers @ Pittsburgh(-6.5)
Neither of these teams is right. However, the Chargers have at least shown some signs of life. I’m really not sure who will win the game, but I don’t see it as a blowout either way, so I’ll be taking these points.
MNF
Packers @ Minnesota(-3.5)
Ahh, yes, the Favre-bowl. If I watch, I’ll have to have it on mute, or the sound of the constant ESPN sucking up to Favre might cause me to start throwing up. It’s a football game between two teams, neither of which is great. The Vikings should be dominant, but they’re just not. The Packers should be good, and they’re… OK. The O-line needs work and the defense isn’t anything special. I have to say that the Vikings are just the better team and give the points, but I’m not happy about it… I almost think the Packers will pull the upset, but I just can’t pick it.
I’m sure I have a 4-10 in me somewhere. I’m not very confident about this week. We shall see.
Sunday 1:00
Lions @ Chicago(-10)
Detroit beat a terrible team last week. Also, Kevin Smith is dinged up (50/50 for today) and if he’s not ready, the Lions have no chance. Plus, the Detroit win will give the Bears more focus. Plus the Bears have a bye next week so they’re not thinking of anything else. It just adds up to a big win for the Bears.
Bengals @ Cleveland(+6)
I like the Browns. I know, I know, they could be the worst team in the league. However, the three teams they’ve played this year are 3 and 0. The Bengals have just won two huge games nobody expected them to win and they have the Ravens next week. There is no more classic trap game than this. I expect them to fully fall into it and impale themselves on the spikes. Which would be much funnier if Takeo was still in Cincinnati. So yes, Browns, +6. They might even win…
Raiders @ Houston(-8.5)
The Raiders looked terrible last week which is why Houston is favored by so much. However, I don’t think any team that is worst against the run (6+ yds per carry) can back up big spread like that. They might win, but they won’t cover.
Seahawks @ Indianapolis(-10)
Indy looked amazing last week. Effortless scoring. I don’t see how it matters if Hasselbeck is there or not. Give the points.
Titans @ Jacksonville(+3)
The Titans are favored, again, because people think they *have* to win. All this *having* to win is the sign of a team that maybe just sucks. No Haynesworth is really hurting this team. Jacksonville.
Giants @ Kansas City(+9)
The Giants are going to destroy KC.
Ravens @ New England(-1.5)
Brady has looked pretty bad. Something is wrong. The run game was effective last week, but that was against the Falcons. They have a crappy run defense. The Ravens have one of the best. While I don’t think it will be ugly, the Ravens should be good for at least a touchdown victory in this game.
Buccaneers @ Washington(-7.5)
Getting 7.5 against the Redskins is just too much a gift to pass up. I don’t trust the Bucs, but this is too many points.
Sunday ~4:10
Bills @ Miami, even
People are making too much of a big deal about Pennington being out. That’s not their game plan. They plan to run. The Bills can’t stop the run. The Dolphins on defense need to get to the QB. What luck, the Bills have a terrible O-Line. Dolphins will win by a touchdown or more.
Jets @ New Orleans(-7)
I’m looking forward to this game too, but I don’t think the Jets have a shot in this one. The Jets need to blitz. You can’t blitz Brees. He’s too good, and his O-Line is too good. They will score. Which means Sanchez has to keep up. I don’t think he can. It’s too much to ask right now, especially after they have all this swagger that comes with 3-0. Saints. Big.
Cowboys @ Denver(+3)
Ok, let me get this straight. Denver is 3-0 with a strong running game. The Cowboys have a loss, and their two victories are against the Bucs and the Panthers (combined 0-6) and a terrible run defense. Getting 3 is a freebie. I’ll take the Broncos.
Rams @ San Francisco(-9.5)
Another trap game. The Niners won’t cover this number. They lost a super-tough game last week and they have the Falcons next week. Boller is starting. They’re looking past this game and asking them to cover a big number with their offense (solid, but not exactly explosive) is too much. Give me the points and the Lambs.
SNF
Chargers @ Pittsburgh(-6.5)
The Chargers are pretty banged up, but they have to be smelling blood. They got punked by the Steelers last year and they want revenge. Meanwhile Pittsburgh has a banged up O-Line and no Troy. Rivers will throw the ball a lot. I expect them to win, but getting the points is a nice cushion. Chargers.
MNF
Packers @ Minnesota(-3.5)
Minnesota is playing pretty well, but I’m not impressed by Favre, magic play notwithstanding. I don’t think that’s the story, though. The Packers, I thought, had a good run defense, but they got torched by Jackson. What are they gonna do against Peterson? I think I know the answer, so I’ll take the Vikings.
“buffaloes have more impressive heads”?
No wonder Al is killing you.
Come on, when flipping a coin dolphins are OBVIOUSLY tails, and Buffalo is clearly the animal that corresponds to heads.
The real problem here is that I forgot that Henne is now the Dolphins QB and I shouldn’t have been flipping a coin at all. Fortunately I went with the Bills…
Fortunately? Henne may be bad, but the Bills are awful.
I posted that before the game… I thought the Bills might be slightly better this time around. Obviously, I was wrong.
Yeah, I know. I posted after. Makes it much easier!
Picks for week 5.
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1pm
Bengals @ Ravens -8.5
This line is nonsense. The Ravens are decent, but the Bengals have prevent their a good team, and building a bit of a giant-killer resume. The Ravens are still licking their wounds (and continue to whine) about their loss to the Patriots. They will not be focused. And you know what, the Ravens pass defense is very suspect. A poor-performing Brady threw all over, as did Rivers the other game. Palmer might have a big game. The Ravens may win, but this is too many points. Take them.
Bills @ Browns +6
I’m not happy with this game. The Browns seem to be better. Anderson threw pretty well last week and I was impressed with Harrison – he should do well against the Bills terrible run defense. On the other hand, the Browns shot their wad against the Bengals. Terrible loss and I think it will have a hangover effect against a non-divisional opponent. Oh yeah, and they’re not that good. Fine, lay the points.
Redskins @ Panthers -4
As long as Delhomme is under center, Carolina shouldn’t be giving points to many teams. The Redskins might be one of them. The Panthers are coming off a bye, so they should be rested and somewhat focused. I don’t think their 29th ranked run defense will get much better, though. Expect Portis to have a big game. And if he can take the pressure off Campbell, there might be big games for Cooley and Moss. Oh my goodness, I think I’m actually picking the Redskins as a road dog! I will take the points.
Steelers @ Lions +10.5
Stafford is banged up, and the Steelers have rediscovered their running game. This will be ugly. Give the points.
Cowboys @ Chiefs +8
Despite their problems, the Cowboys are better than the Chiefs, and they have to be focused for this one. And they’re going into a bye next week, so no lookahead factor. Again, I will go with the road favorite and give the points.
Raiders @ Giants -15.5
Whoa, huge spread, but I’ve got no problems dropping it. The Raiders are terrible. They keep telling Russell to throw huge bombs to nothing. McFadden is out. Cable is going to jail. How can you gameplan when you’re going to jail?!? Manning will play, or not, doesn’t matter. Giants HUGE.
Eagles @ Succaneers -15.5
The Bucs almost won last week and played very hard…they will not be able to bounce back against a far superior opponent. The Eagles D will prevent any running game which means Johnson will have to throw, which means the Philly secondary will get at least 2 picks. I’m going crazy dropping the big numbers this week. I can’t possibly get all of them, but I’m not worried about this one. Eagles big with either Kolb or McNabb … or Vick.
Vikings @ Rams +10.5
The Vikings are up against this terrible team, yet their next three games are against the Ravens, Steelers and the Packers. Possible letdown factor! I don’t think it will happen, though. The Rams have nothing but Jackson and holy crap did they get walloped last week. Again, road favorite laying big points.
4pm
Falcons @ 49ers -2.5
I really don’t like the Falcons traveling at this point, despite coming off a bye week. Also, I’m seriously suspect of the Falcons running game. I know Smith is trying to mix it up, but I haven’t seen any kind of success I suspected, especially after have Gonzalez as another passing threat. It doesn’t help that the Niners have an excellent run defense that bottled up Adrian Petersen last week. I think the Falcons are overrated a bit. Expect SF to run and run and pick up a few 3rd downs on passes against a suspect Falcons D. Such a small number, I will take the Niners.
Texans @ Cardinals -5.5
The Texans are playing much better lately and the Cardinals are frighteningly overrated! I don’t think they’ll keep up with the Texans offense, especially since Warner is messed up – bad hip. The line is too high. I’ll take the points.
Patriots @ Broncos +3
The Pats are hurting against the run a bit. The Broncos love to run. That’s the biggest part of this story. Meanwhile, the Broncos have an excellent run defense which means Brady will have to pass. Uh oh. The Broncos are ranked 3rd in passing defense. Denver has a bunch of sacks and guess what, the trick to beating the Pats is to rush them mercilessly. This game actually might get ugly. I will gladly take the points.
Jaguars @ Seahawks -1
Looks like Hasselbeck will be in despite having not practiced much, but it shouldn’t matter. The O-Line is banged up and Jones isn’t getting the job done and the Jags run defense is ok. The Jags are not good against the pass, and this is an area that Seattle needs to exploit…I’m just not sure they can. On the others side, Jones-Drew has got his moo back and Garrard is lighting it up in his past two games. I like Jax as a very slight underdog.
8pm
Colts @ Titans +3.5
This game is soooo huge for the Titans. Division rivals. And if they go 0-5 their season is over. There’s no way a quality team like the Titans can go 0-5 right? Wrong. Bad premise. They’re not a quality team. The Colts really really are. The Titans should have success running the ball but they won’t be able to stop what the Colts are doing on offense. I’ll give the points.
Monday Night
Dolphins @ Jets -2
The Dolphins are pretty good against the run and that could be trouble for the Jets because they’ll have to rely a bit on Sanchez. So here’s the question, did he lose confidence last week after the Saints whuppin’ or will he be able to put it in perspective and stay loose? I think he’ll be fine and I think the Jets D is more than Henne and company can handle. I’ll give the points with the Jets at home. And I really, really hate Miami.