Ugh, last week I had my first under-.500 week, and I went 6–8. Al, of course, continued to light it up and went 10–4. That makes me 33–29 for the season and Al a blistering 44–18 for the season. I have nothing to add to this complete beating, except that all two or three of you out there who read this should bet whatever Al says and you’ll clean up. Al is the NFL Pick God this season, that’s 71% against the spread. That’s insane.
Anyway, on to the picks…
Sunday 1:00
Bengals @ Baltimore(-8.5)
Wow, that’s a lot of points. The Bengals aren’t the Bungles this year! I like Baltimore to win this game, but not by that much, so I’ll take Cinci.
Browns @ Buffalo(-6)
Both of these teams are simply awful. I’m not sure the Bills are six points better than anyone, including the hapless Browns. Too many points for me.
Redskins @ Carolina(-4)
I think the Redskins are simply worse than the Panthers, records notwithstanding. Are they five points worse? On the road, I say yes. Carolina.
Steelers @ Lions(+10.5)
Stafford is hurt so Culpepper is probably going. The spread should be like 20; Pittsburgh should have no problem covering 10.5 with Daunte starting.
Cowboys @ Kansas City(+8)
I love when the Cowboys struggle. And, given how bad they’ve been late in the season for the last few years, well, I can hardly wait to see how this train wreck finishes up. On the other hand, they’re playing a team that fired its offensive coordinator in the preseason. Give the points.
Raiders @ New Jersey Giants(+15.5)
It appears Eli will play. We know the Giants can stop the run, so for Oakland to stay in this game, they’ll have to throw a lot. Hahahahaha… yeah. Giants by two TDs… at halftime. This could easily be 42-0 with only 21 scored by the Giants’ offense. This will be ugly, ugly, ugly…
Buccaneers @ Eagles(-15.5)
Another huge spread, and another team that fired it’s offensive coordinator in the preseason that still hasn’t won a game. Eagles win this easily, but I’m actually going to take the points because I think the Eagles will only win by two TDs. Yikes.
Vikings @ St. Louis(+10.5)
Another huge spread, and another well-deserved huge spread. Vikings cover this easily, as the Rams, bad enough with their starter in, will probably be playing Kyle Boller again. Ewww.
Sunday ~4:10
Falcons @ San Francisco(-2.5)
Toughest call of the week, I’ll probably be switching between three games in the later block and may just skip the 1:00 games completely, though if I need a laugh I might dial up the Raiders-Giants. Anyway, I’m not really sure here. Go with the home team since they don’t have to lay the full three.
Texans @ Cardinals(-5.5)
Well, OK, that was a nice win last week for Houston, but come on, it was the Raiders. I don’t think the Cardinals are really all that good, but at home against the Texans does not require a team to be. Arizona.
Patriots @ Denver(+3)
Intriguing because the Pats don’t have Fred Taylor and it’s not clear how they’ll be able to run the ball against a good run D without him. Can they win being one-dimensional? With Champ Bailey back there, I’m not sure. However, it’s the mentor vs. mentee thing that makes me think the Pats will pull it out, since Big Bad Bill tends to beat up on his proteges. New England.
Jaguars @ Seattle(-1)
Ahh, the Seabags and their 12th man. Can #12 stop the run? No? Even if they can, Garrard has looked really good lately. Hasselbeck is still iffy, and we know that Seattle can’t run. Yeah, I’ll take the point.
SNF
Colts @ Tennessee(+3.5)
Err, what? How is this spread so small? Someone clearly believes that the Titans have a recovery of some kind coming. Look, let’s lay it out: Tennessee cannot, simply cannot, defend the pass. Not even a little. Manning will throw for 400+ and many TDs here. Colts by two TDs or something like it.
MNF
Jets @ Dolphins(+2)
Rex Ryan’s team can stop the run. Miami can’t pass. Lay the measly two here; I thought the spread would be more like six. No brainer.
I see Al picked while I was writing mine up! I’m pasting them here so people looking who to take this week (remember, Al is crushing Vegas the way teams are crushing St. Louis) know the right picks:
Picks for week 5.
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1pm
Bengals @ Ravens -8.5
This line is nonsense. The Ravens are decent, but the Bengals have prevent their a good team, and building a bit of a giant-killer resume. The Ravens are still licking their wounds (and continue to whine) about their loss to the Patriots. They will not be focused. And you know what, the Ravens pass defense is very suspect. A poor-performing Brady threw all over, as did Rivers the other game. Palmer might have a big game. The Ravens may win, but this is too many points. Take them.
Bills @ Browns +6
I’m not happy with this game. The Browns seem to be better. Anderson threw pretty well last week and I was impressed with Harrison – he should do well against the Bills terrible run defense. On the other hand, the Browns shot their wad against the Bengals. Terrible loss and I think it will have a hangover effect against a non-divisional opponent. Oh yeah, and they’re not that good. Fine, lay the points.
Redskins @ Panthers -4
As long as Delhomme is under center, Carolina shouldn’t be giving points to many teams. The Redskins might be one of them. The Panthers are coming off a bye, so they should be rested and somewhat focused. I don’t think their 29th ranked run defense will get much better, though. Expect Portis to have a big game. And if he can take the pressure off Campbell, there might be big games for Cooley and Moss. Oh my goodness, I think I’m actually picking the Redskins as a road dog! I will take the points.
Steelers @ Lions +10.5
Stafford is banged up, and the Steelers have rediscovered their running game. This will be ugly. Give the points.
Cowboys @ Chiefs +8
Despite their problems, the Cowboys are better than the Chiefs, and they have to be focused for this one. And they’re going into a bye next week, so no lookahead factor. Again, I will go with the road favorite and give the points.
Raiders @ Giants -15.5
Whoa, huge spread, but I’ve got no problems dropping it. The Raiders are terrible. They keep telling Russell to throw huge bombs to nothing. McFadden is out. Cable is going to jail. How can you gameplan when you’re going to jail?!? Manning will play, or not, doesn’t matter. Giants HUGE.
Eagles @ Succaneers -15.5
The Bucs almost won last week and played very hard…they will not be able to bounce back against a far superior opponent. The Eagles D will prevent any running game which means Johnson will have to throw, which means the Philly secondary will get at least 2 picks. I’m going crazy dropping the big numbers this week. I can’t possibly get all of them, but I’m not worried about this one. Eagles big with either Kolb or McNabb … or Vick.
Vikings @ Rams +10.5
The Vikings are up against this terrible team, yet their next three games are against the Ravens, Steelers and the Packers. Possible letdown factor! I don’t think it will happen, though. The Rams have nothing but Jackson and holy crap did they get walloped last week. Again, road favorite laying big points.
4pm
Falcons @ 49ers -2.5
I really don’t like the Falcons traveling at this point, despite coming off a bye week. Also, I’m seriously suspect of the Falcons running game. I know Smith is trying to mix it up, but I haven’t seen any kind of success I suspected, especially after have Gonzalez as another passing threat. It doesn’t help that the Niners have an excellent run defense that bottled up Adrian Petersen last week. I think the Falcons are overrated a bit. Expect SF to run and run and pick up a few 3rd downs on passes against a suspect Falcons D. Such a small number, I will take the Niners.
Texans @ Cardinals -5.5
The Texans are playing much better lately and the Cardinals are frighteningly overrated! I don’t think they’ll keep up with the Texans offense, especially since Warner is messed up – bad hip. The line is too high. I’ll take the points.
Patriots @ Broncos +3
The Pats are hurting against the run a bit. The Broncos love to run. That’s the biggest part of this story. Meanwhile, the Broncos have an excellent run defense which means Brady will have to pass. Uh oh. The Broncos are ranked 3rd in passing defense. Denver has a bunch of sacks and guess what, the trick to beating the Pats is to rush them mercilessly. This game actually might get ugly. I will gladly take the points.
Jaguars @ Seahawks -1
Looks like Hasselbeck will be in despite having not practiced much, but it shouldn’t matter. The O-Line is banged up and Jones isn’t getting the job done and the Jags run defense is ok. The Jags are not good against the pass, and this is an area that Seattle needs to exploit…I’m just not sure they can. On the others side, Jones-Drew has got his moo back and Garrard is lighting it up in his past two games. I like Jax as a very slight underdog.
8pm
Colts @ Titans +3.5
This game is soooo huge for the Titans. Division rivals. And if they go 0-5 their season is over. There’s no way a quality team like the Titans can go 0-5 right? Wrong. Bad premise. They’re not a quality team. The Colts really really are. The Titans should have success running the ball but they won’t be able to stop what the Colts are doing on offense. I’ll give the points.
Monday Night
Dolphins @ Jets -2
The Dolphins are pretty good against the run and that could be trouble for the Jets because they’ll have to rely a bit on Sanchez. So here’s the question, did he lose confidence last week after the Saints whuppin’ or will he be able to put it in perspective and stay loose? I think he’ll be fine and I think the Jets D is more than Henne and company can handle. I’ll give the points with the Jets at home. And I really, really hate Miami.
Looks like I’m coming back down to earth this week. Holy cow the Falcons and Cardinals are blowing doors! I didn’t expect that. And look at the Seahawks lighting it up. And finally, the Broncos are giving the Brady way too much time.
Exciting!
Picks for Week 6. Please move if you can! Thanks:
1pm
Texans at Bengals -5.5
The Bengals are coming in at relatively heavy favorites after a huge win in the final seconds. The Texans just missed last week and are hungry for a win. I like getting the five points here.
Lions at Packers -14
The Lions are missing their starting QB and their all-world receiver is iffy. On the other hand, the Lions have been pretty competitive. The Packers are more of a disappointment. They just have a bad O-Line and their defense isn’t so great either. I think 14 is too many points. I take the Lions at home.
Ravens at Vikings -3
This is a very tough game. The Vikings are super-hot and they have the whole Favre thing going (a few more games before he falls into the tank). The Ravens are 3-2, but really, they’re not that bad. They’ve just had a very tough schedule. The Ravens need this game, but the Vikings just don’t. This is a non-division game and they have the Steelers and the Packers coming up. Also, I think the Ravens get their left tackle Gaither back, so that should help Flacco. I’ll take the points.
Rams at Jaguars -9.5
The Rams suck. Also, the Jags got totally embarrassed in Seattle last week. No way they are not going to be really up for this game. Give the points.
Giants at Saints -3
Another tough game. The Giants are so hot, but I don’t think they’ve come up a defense as good as the Saints have played. Also, the Saints are at home in the dome which is a huge advantage. And the Giants thrive on the pass rush, but you can’t blitz Brees – he’s too cagey and his O-line is too good. So why am I picking the Giants? I just love the Jacobs/Bradshaw combo. And Eli is a perfect third-down QB – he’s accurate and has backs that can catch the ball.
Browns at Steelers -14
The Browns passed 2-17 for 23 yards. And won. That kind of production just will not get it done against the Steelers. Pittsburgh will run it up early and coast to at least a 14 point win. There’s a chance for a letdown with the Vikings next week, but I think they’re too disciplined for that.
Panthers at Buccaneers +3
Stewart and Williams should run run run and keep Delhomme from having to throw too much. That should be enough to win this for Carolina. I don’t like giving any points with Carolina, but the Bucs have been bad and Johnson keeps making mistakes. I’ll give the three.
Chiefs at Redskins -6
Samuels on the O-Line is out, which gives Campbell even less protection but it shouldn’t matter much because the Redskins should be able to run the ball against the porous Chiefs D. The running game should open up long passes to Moss. The Chiefs had a huge game against the Cowboys and still lost. I think this will be a tough blow to the team and they’ll come out flat. I don’t like the Redskins giving points, but I think they get an easy win here.
Eagles at Raiders +14
Yeah. Um. Give the points.
Cardinals at Seahawks -3
I keep picking against the Cards and keep losing. Well, I’m gonna do it again. If Seattle can muster what they did last week, they will win easily. Arizona can be thrown on as we learned last week. Give the points. Especially in Seattle.
4pm
Titans at Patriots -9.5
The Titans HAD to win last week. They were up and ready. They got destroyed. They will have nothing left especially against a decent Patriots team steamed after getting beat last week. Give the points.
Bills at Jets -9.5
If the Jets have any breath left after running gassers all week, they’ll light up the Bills. The Jets haven’t played the run very well the past two games and that’s supposed to be their strength. Well, the Bills don’t have a good offensive line and the Jets will stop the run this time. That means Edwards will be forced to throw, and against the Jets blitz, that might become a nightmare. Jets big.
Sunday:
Bears at Falcons -3.5
I think these are pretty evenly matched teams. The Falcons haven’t run well and against the Bears they still won’t, but the pass protection has been great and Ryan should be able to torch the Bears. The Bears have a decent running game and the Falcons are crappy against the run. This should help Cutler a bit. I think both teams will score pretty well, so take the over. And I guess I’ll take the home team. The half point scares me, but after pounding the Niners, I’m not *that* scared. Falcons.
Monday:
Broncos at Chargers -3
Whoa…San Diego is favored? How can that be? The Broncos have a better defense and a better running game. LT isn’t running well and the Chargers O-Line is walking wounded. Rivers will have to throw a lot. Still, the Broncos don’t have much more to prove. This may be the first game they’re playing where they won’t have a chip on their shoulder. The Chargers meanwhile be gearing up for a big fight. I actually like San Diego holding their home fort.