Man, I can’t believe I almost forgot to do these…
Last week I went a wretched 6–8. OK, maybe not wretched, but not good when I have a big lead to try to close. Al finally had a human week, going 7–7, but of course that means I still lost ground. Ugh. I’m 39–37 and Al is a nutty 51–25.
One thing I’ll point out about this week is how many of these spreads are “home team -3”. That’s the Vegas way of saying “we have no idea, either.” Interesting week!
Sunday 1:00
Texans @ Cincinnati(-5.5)
Houston can’t stop the run, and Cedric Benson is the leading rusher in the NFL—seriously, how weird is that? Bengals cover this, win by at least a TD.
Lions @ Green Bay(-14)
Stafford is still out, right? I know the Lions actually put up a fight against the Steelers last week, but not two weeks in a row. Packers.
Rams @ Jacksonville(-9.5)
Has St. Louis covered the spread at all this year? Only once? Yeah, I’ll take Jax to bounce back and blow out a very bad team. Give the ball to MJD!!
Ravens @ Vikings(-3)
Man, that’ll be a lot of friggin’ purple on the field. Anyway, I constantly have this feeling like the Vikings are doing it with smoke and mirrors. Nonetheless, they are undefeated and at home, so I will give the points.
Giants @ New Orleans(-3)
This should be quite a game! Both teams unbeaten, AND unbeaten against the spread. Want more unhelpful stats? The G-Men are 17-4 against the spread vs. a team with a winning record; the Saints are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games, 6-1-1 ATS in last 8 vs. NFC. So, uhh, they’re both hot. Well, the Giants are a little more banged up, with Manning and Bradshaw a little hobbled and Manningham probably out. So, based on health and home field, I’ll take the Saints. Oh, and because they still owe the Giants for that bonus home game in the Katrina year.
Browns @ Pittsburgh(-14)
When you go 2 for 17 passing against Buffalo you ache. I don’t like the Steelers in terms of running up the score, though, but they’ll try to in what was once a rivalry game and is still at least a divisional game, so I’ll go with Pittsburgh here.
Panthers @ Tampa Bay(+3)
I’m not sure after last week that the Panthers should be favored against anybody… then again, the Bucs are millions under the cap and have neither offense or defense. Are they paying fans to come to this game? Carolina.
Chefs @ Washington(-6)
The Redskins are not six points better than anybody, even Kansas City. Take the points!
Sunday ~4:10
Eagles @ Oakland(+14)
I was not sure about Philly’s ability to really blow out bad teams last week and wouldn’t give the 15.5. I think Oakland is probably even worse than Tampa, if that’s possible, so I guess I should give the points this time. Iggles.
Cardinals @ Seattle(-3)
I’m as clueless as Vegas here. Which Kurt Warner will show up, the guy in the first half last week or his evil twin who played the second half? Which Seattle team will show up, the one that’s blown out a couple opponents or the one that’s been blown out three times? Cards are 2-2 against the spread, Seabags are 2-3. Yeah, OK, coin says… Arizona. Sure, why the hell not?
Titans @ New England(-9.5)
There are still people out there saying that eventually Tennessee will come around. Yeah, well, until they can actually stop somebody from throwing the ball all over the field, it ain’t gonna happen. Worst secondary in the NFL, maybe. This game will cause no end of gushing ESPN stories on how Tom Brady finally really looks all the way back, but of course and NFL quarterback—no, JaMarcus Russell doesn’t count as one—will look good. Pats huge.
Bills @ New Jersey Jest(-9.5)
One of the unexpected expenses of last week’s Bills-Browns game was cleaning up all the blood left in the stands as fans slit their wrists to get the game over with. Gang Green will be pissed after losing last week and will take it out on the Bills; they should have no trouble covering this.
SNF
Bears @ Atlanta(-3.5)
Great, both teams 3-1 and both 3-1 against the spread. I have no idea, so… <peeks at Al’s picks> I will go with the Bears just to riverside Al.
MNF
Broncos @ San Diego(-3)
Wow, still no respect for unbeaten Denver. Look, the Chargers cannot run the ball. And against this defense, being one-dimensional will simply not cut it. I will gladly take the points as Denver should win this straight-up, and doing that might lock up the division.
Here are Al’s picks, which he posted to last week’s post because I was late (again). My bad.
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Picks for Week 6. Please move if you can! Thanks:
1pm
Texans at Bengals -5.5
The Bengals are coming in at relatively heavy favorites after a huge win in the final seconds. The Texans just missed last week and are hungry for a win. I like getting the five points here.
Lions at Packers -14
The Lions are missing their starting QB and their all-world receiver is iffy. On the other hand, the Lions have been pretty competitive. The Packers are more of a disappointment. They just have a bad O-Line and their defense isn’t so great either. I think 14 is too many points. I take the Lions at home.
Ravens at Vikings -3
This is a very tough game. The Vikings are super-hot and they have the whole Favre thing going (a few more games before he falls into the tank). The Ravens are 3-2, but really, they’re not that bad. They’ve just had a very tough schedule. The Ravens need this game, but the Vikings just don’t. This is a non-division game and they have the Steelers and the Packers coming up. Also, I think the Ravens get their left tackle Gaither back, so that should help Flacco. I’ll take the points.
Rams at Jaguars -9.5
The Rams suck. Also, the Jags got totally embarrassed in Seattle last week. No way they are not going to be really up for this game. Give the points.
Giants at Saints -3
Another tough game. The Giants are so hot, but I don’t think they’ve come up a defense as good as the Saints have played. Also, the Saints are at home in the dome which is a huge advantage. And the Giants thrive on the pass rush, but you can’t blitz Brees – he’s too cagey and his O-line is too good. So why am I picking the Giants? I just love the Jacobs/Bradshaw combo. And Eli is a perfect third-down QB – he’s accurate and has backs that can catch the ball.
Browns at Steelers -14
The Browns passed 2-17 for 23 yards. And won. That kind of production just will not get it done against the Steelers. Pittsburgh will run it up early and coast to at least a 14 point win. There’s a chance for a letdown with the Vikings next week, but I think they’re too disciplined for that.
Panthers at Buccaneers +3
Stewart and Williams should run run run and keep Delhomme from having to throw too much. That should be enough to win this for Carolina. I don’t like giving any points with Carolina, but the Bucs have been bad and Johnson keeps making mistakes. I’ll give the three.
Chiefs at Redskins -6
Samuels on the O-Line is out, which gives Campbell even less protection but it shouldn’t matter much because the Redskins should be able to run the ball against the porous Chiefs D. The running game should open up long passes to Moss. The Chiefs had a huge game against the Cowboys and still lost. I think this will be a tough blow to the team and they’ll come out flat. I don’t like the Redskins giving points, but I think they get an easy win here.
Eagles at Raiders +14
Yeah. Um. Give the points.
Cardinals at Seahawks -3
I keep picking against the Cards and keep losing. Well, I’m gonna do it again. If Seattle can muster what they did last week, they will win easily. Arizona can be thrown on as we learned last week. Give the points. Especially in Seattle.
4pm
Titans at Patriots -9.5
The Titans HAD to win last week. They were up and ready. They got destroyed. They will have nothing left especially against a decent Patriots team steamed after getting beat last week. Give the points.
Bills at Jets -9.5
If the Jets have any breath left after running gassers all week, they’ll light up the Bills. The Jets haven’t played the run very well the past two games and that’s supposed to be their strength. Well, the Bills don’t have a good offensive line and the Jets will stop the run this time. That means Edwards will be forced to throw, and against the Jets blitz, that might become a nightmare. Jets big.
Sunday:
Bears at Falcons -3.5
I think these are pretty evenly matched teams. The Falcons haven’t run well and against the Bears they still won’t, but the pass protection has been great and Ryan should be able to torch the Bears. The Bears have a decent running game and the Falcons are crappy against the run. This should help Cutler a bit. I think both teams will score pretty well, so take the over. And I guess I’ll take the home team. The half point scares me, but after pounding the Niners, I’m not *that* scared. Falcons.
Monday:
Broncos at Chargers -3
Whoa…San Diego is favored? How can that be? The Broncos have a better defense and a better running game. LT isn’t running well and the Chargers O-Line is walking wounded. Rivers will have to throw a lot. Still, the Broncos don’t have much more to prove. This may be the first game they’re playing where they won’t have a chip on their shoulder. The Chargers meanwhile be gearing up for a big fight. I actually like San Diego holding their home fort.
1pm
Forty-Niners at Houston -3
Ok, Houston is favored, and when they’re favored, they tend to do poorly. They’ve just come off a heroic win after holding Benson to very little yards. Not sure how they did that since their run defense is pretty poor. I expect the Niners to run Gore over and over again. It will be close, but i like the Niners and the points.
Chargers at Chiefs +4.5
Crazy low line, which makes me very nervous, but I’m going to give the points. The Chiefs have no pass rush and the Chargers like to pass.
Colts at Rams +14
All signs point to another blowout. The Colts are on a huge roll. Yes, I know the Rams covered last week. Good for them. Give the points.
Patriots at Buccaneers +15
This game is in London, so not really a home game for the Bucs. I don’t know if the Pats will go crazy like last week, but the Bucs are no better than the Titans and their pass defense may be worse. Give the points.
Vikings at Steelers -6
The Vikings don’t need this game, but the Steelers do. The Vikes have a big lead in their division while Pittsburgh is tied for their lead. Plus the Steelers are headed into a bye. They will go all out in this game. Give the points.
Packers at Browns +9
The Browns are 3-0 against the spread since Anderson has started, and the Packers O-Line is in shambles. I’ll take the 9 points in Cleveland.
4pm
Bills at Panthers -7
Carolina should not be favored by more than a field goal over anybody. I see what they’re thinking. The Panthers ran all over Tampa Bay and the Bills let Thomas Jones run for over 200 yards. But the Bills won that game because Sanchez threw picks. Hello Jake the Snake! I’ll take the points.
Jets at Raiders +6
The Jets are in a tailspin. Sanchez is totally unravelled and their stud on the O-Line, Jenkins, is gone for the year. Sphincters are tight. Meanwhile, the Raiders look like they’ve figured things out and Seymour is guaranteeing the playoffs. (PLAYOFFS?!) So yeah, I’ll take the 6 and hope the Jets eke out a slim victory.
Bears at Bengals Straight-up
Yeah, I dunno. The line is moving over towards the Bears. When it opened, the Bengals were favored. I guess maybe it’s the realization that Cinci’s best pass rusher is out. The Bengals are at home, so I suspect Mike will take them for that reason, so I’ll take the Bears.
Falcons at Dallas -4
Dallas favored? Buh..wha? Big names and bright lights at home? Whatever. Jones came out and said this game is a barometer for the Cowboy’s season. How weird the world is when the Cowboys are judging their merit against the mighty Falcons. I like Atlanta and the points.
Saints at Dolphins +6.5
The Saints are on a huge roll, but here come the Dolphins with a ball-control offense and studly defense. Just like..er…the Giants. Still, look at the situation. The Saints don’t care about this game. They need to beat the Falcons next week. Coming off that emotional and huge win last week, expecting to win by over a touchdown over a solid team may be too much to ask. I’ll take the points.
8pm
Cardinals at Giants -7
I keep picking against the Cards and keep losing. If I was smart, I’d learn from this, but I am not. I’m still not sold that Warner is healthy. Somehow they rolled Seattle, but he never had to throw downfield. Against the Giants defense, he’s going to have to figure a way to stretch the field and I just don’t think he will be able to. I expect the Giants to bounce back after being thoroughly thrashed by the Saints in front of everyone. Give the points.
Monday, 8pm
Eagles at Redskins +7
The Eagles looked so bad against the Raiders. Will they learn anything and stop passing so much? The Redskins have quite a few sacks and their pass D isn’t the worst. Plus they play the Eagles tough. They beat them twice last year. No, the Eagles will continue to play stupid and overconfidently. I’ll take the points.