Slowly, very slowly, I’m gaining ground. In week 6 I went 7–7 and Al went 5–9, and in week 7 I went 7–5–1 and Al had another down week at 4–8–1. I’m only down seven games! For the season I’m still above even at 53–49–1 and Al’s blistering start has him at 60–42–1. I like the trend! If I gain an average of 2.5 games per week, I’ll catch Al in a mere three more weeks… ha, ha.
Sunday 1:00
Broncos @ Baltimore(-3)
What exactly do the Broncos have to do to get some respect? How are they underdogs, even on the road? I’m taking Denver.
Texans @ Buffalo(+3.5)
I think I’m like 0-7 on picking the Texans this year, so Al should just go against anything I pick. The Texans might have trouble offensively because while the Bills aren’t very good against the run, the Texans don’t run. Will it be windy? If the Texans have to run to win, I’m worried, since Steve Slaton has more fumbles lost than any NFL team this year. With Andre Johnson probable but hurt, putting even more pressure on the Houston ground game, I’m going to have to go with the Bills.
Browns @ Chicago(-13)
I have little doubt the Bears will win this. But will they blow the Browns out? I mean, they looked like complete ass last week against Cincinnati… but this it at home, and the Browns are simply horrific. Give the points.
Seahawks @ Dallas(-9.5)
I don’t know what to do with this one. The Cowboys have more talent, but it certainly seems like a lot of points. Can the Cowboys actually put together two big wins in a row? Well, since the Seahawks secondary is nicked up, and they’ve been pretty bad on the road over the last few years. OK, I’ll take Dallas.
Dolphins @ New Jersey Jets(-3)
Beating up on the Raiders is not impressive. Can the Jets stop the run? I’m not so sure. Mostly to riverside Al, I’m taking Miami.
Niners @ Indianapolis(-13)
Is there any reason to think the freight train that is the Colts will be derailed this week? Nothing that I can see.
Giants @ Philadelphia(+1)
This is the kind of game the Eagles blow because they forget to run the ball. I’ll give the point.
Rams @ Detroit(-4)
Here’s something I haven’t thought for a long, long time: the Lions are just better. Wow.
Sunday ~4:10
Raiders @ San Diego(-16.5)
Wow, that’s a lot of points. Apparently the logic is that the Chargers blew out the Chefs last week and the Raiders got blown out last week. But really, for the season, the Chargers haven’t been very good against the spread. I’m going to got a bit nutty and take the big pile of points…
Jaguars @ Tennessee(-3)
WTF? Didn’t these teams play a few weeks ago? Didn’t the Jags beat the Titans senseless? How is Tennessee favored here? Do people think Vince Young is the answer? Really? Unless he’s playing CB and/or safety, I don’t see how that’s going to help enough. Take the points.
Vikings @ Green Bay(-3)
You know, the Vikings should be a really dominant team. Yes, sure, they’ve only lost once, but they mostly haven’t been blowing folks away… except the Packers a few weeks ago. Well, this time the Vikings have a much worse secondary and the Packers o-line has looked better of late, so I’m going to be bold and lay the points.
Panthers @ Arizona(-10)
Carolina is horrific. Ten is kind of a lot, but the Cards defense might score ten all by itself, so I don’t think it’s too much.
MNF
Falcons @ New Orleans(-10.5)
The Saints got a scare last week and will be ready. The Falcons got embarrassed on the road and they’ll be up for a division game. Again, though, I think the Saints are just better, and they seem to play inspired at home, so I’ll give the big number again.
Yes, I was bound to have the law of averages grab me! But I will ward you off. I can’t possibly continue to pick so poorly. Off we go! Just for the record, I thought I had 5 wins last week…
Sunday 1:00
Broncos @ Baltimore(-3)
Broncos have the Steelers next week and the Ravens *need* this game. I’ll take the Ravens at home.
Texans @ Buffalo(+3.5)
The Texans are in love with themselves right now and this is classic look-ahead territory as they have the Colts next week. I’m taking Buffalo and the points.
Browns @ Chicago(-13)
The Bears are reeling. This is the exact medicine they need, playing against the hapless Browns. Give the big number at home.
Seahawks @ Dallas(-9.5)
Wow, kind of a big number. Seattle is pretty bad, but things would have to go as bad as it did for Atlanta last week for them to lose by a big number. The Cowboys aren’t careful enough with the football. I’ll take the points.
Dolphins @ New Jersey Jets(-3)
I’ve gone back and forth on this one. Kris Jenkins is out. Huge loss for the Jets, and with that Miami run game, they’re in big trouble. Then again, the Jets have had two consecutive 300 yard running games. However, Miami has the 6th best run defense, which will force Sanchez to throw more often (uh oh). But wait, Sanchez has looked better and Cotchery will (maybe) be back! Plus a starting corner for Miami will be out. And then there’s last week. The Jets won easy and Miami lost a huge heartbreaker. I think that may ruin Miami’s season. They won’t be able to put two efforts like that back to back. Cool. I’m glad we had this talk. Jets!
Niners @ Indianapolis(-13)
The Colts are playing a better class of football. They should have no trouble with a so-so Niners team. Give the big number.
Giants @ Philadelphia(+1)
Wow, the Giants are now favored. This line has shifted greatly. I’m not super happy about it, but I guess Giants.
Rams @ Detroit(-4)
I actually think the Lions are better than the Rams! Give the points.
Sunday ~4:10
Raiders @ San Diego(-16.5)
Gosh, that’s too many points especially since Asomugha should be able to handle Vincent Jackson. The Chargers o-line is bleh, and thus LT is human (and maybe a little old) this year. They will have to pass, and I don’t think they’ll be able to rip the Raiders that easily.
Jaguars @ Tennessee(-3)
I know the Jags won last time, but the Titans have made a switch! Watch Young pull out a late comeback to match or beat this spread just to make things all weird and complicated in Tennessee. I’ll give the points.
Vikings @ Green Bay(-3)
Wait, Packers minus three? Hah, ok. I’ll take the Vikings. Who knows, those fans might end up rooting for Favre. That’ll be bad news for the Packers.
Panthers @ Arizona(-10)
I keep picking against Arizona and losing. I must have some sort of bias against them. I really don’t. But at this point, if I bet them, I’m sure to lose, so since it’s a loser either way, I’ll keep going one direction, so, take the points and the Panthers.
MNF
Falcons @ New Orleans(-10.5)
The Saints are awesome, no doubt, but this game always seems to be competitive. I like the Falcons to keep it close. Even thought Grimes at 5’1″, or however tall he is, will be torched over and over. Note that one of the Saints best d-lineman will be out for this game, so Ryan should have more time to pass.
Good luck!
You’re right, you did have 5 last week. Sorry about that. (Also, damn, means I’m even one more game behind…)
Week 9 picks!
Sunday 1pm
Redskins at Falcons -10
I expect the Falcons to be a little flat this week after last week’s tough loss to the Saints. The Redskins D-line is no joke and will give Turner and the Falcons like some trouble. The Redskins offense is a joke, however. I expect it to be a little bit closer than 10 points. So I’ll take them.
Cardinals at Bears -3
Bears favored. Interesting. Arizona looked awful last week against the Panthers. 5 picks by Warner? That ain’t happening again. Also, I think they looked past Carolina. I’ll take the points.
Ravens at Bengals +3
The Bengals have already beaten the Ravens in Baltimore. They play better as underdogs. This is an important intra-division game. The Bengals will keep it close, or even win. I’ll take the points.
Texans at Colts -9
The Colts are still awesome but they’ve come back to earth a little bit not covering against the Niners. Also, the Texans are looking at this like their super bowl. Losing Owen Daniels will hurt, but their offense is still good enough to keep it close. I’ll take the points.
Chiefs at Jaguars -6.5
The spread seems kind of low, which makes me want to pick the Jaguars. Especially at home. I feel like I’m being pushed in that direction which makes me wary. Larry Johnson is out, and I think that actually helps KC, both in the locker room and on the field. I’ll take the points.
Packers at Buccaneers +10
This should be an ugly game. The Bucs are horrible vs. the run and LAST against the pass. Look for Rodgers to light it up. Give the points.
Dolphins at Patriots -10.5
Belichek + Bye = Bad News for the Dolphins. Plus they let the Jets roll them for almost 400 yards last week. What are you gonna do with Brady and co.? Give the points.
4pm
Panthers at Saints -14
This game gives me a lot of trouble. The Saints don’t need this game and they were in a war last week. Plus this is an intra-division game and Carolina really wants it, especially after feeling good about last week’s win. Fourteen is a lot…ok, I’ll take the points.
Lions at Seahawks -10
I think Johnson is still out for the Lions, so they’ll have no hope. Yeah, the Seahawks are terrible, but somehow they’re still in the playoff picture and they have the capability of blowing bad teams out at home. I’ll give the 10.
Chargers at Giants – 4.5
I don’t know what everyone else is looking at, but the Giants have lost three in a row and looked really bad doing it. Manning is hurt and the defense is terrible. I’m going Chargers and I’m happy to get some points.
Titans at 49ers -4.5
I like the Titans in this game. Note that the Niners are playing backups at both Tackle positions on offense. The Titans can, sometimes, rush the passer. On the other side, don’t forget that Young is still playing and makes matchups difficult. I’ll take the points.
8pm
Cowboys at Eagles -3
The Eagles are playing really well right now. The Cowboys are winning too, but this will be their first road game in a long time. The Eagles own the Cowboys these days, so at home, I’m taking them. Give the points.
Monday 8pm
Steelers at Broncos +3
I think the Broncos are done. They were exposed a bit last week. Orton is really no good and now they’re starting a rookie at right tackle against the Steelers best pass rusher. The Broncos secondary is aging and I think that showed last week. Expect Big Ben to have a big game. This could be a blowout. Give the points and take the road team.