OK, so I messed up the record two weeks ago, Al actually had 5 right, not 4. Not that it matters, though, because last week I stunk it up and went 4-9 and dropped below .500 for the season, while Al went a respectable 7-8. Al’s lead is huge and growing, 68-47-1 to 57-58-1. Ugh.
I’ll just get on with the picks then, shall I?
Sunday 1pm
Redskins at Falcons(-10)
Washington continues to be a train wreck. While the Falcons showed last week they still can’t quite hang with the big boys, they should have no trouble with the Redskins; give the points.
Cardinals at Bears(-3)
Two inconsistent teams and Vegas has no idea what to do… home team by three. I hate the way the Cardinals play on the road, so I’ll give the three.
Ravens at Bengals(+3)
Rematch games are always tricky. You know Baltimore wants a pound of flesh for the last meeting and they sure looked good last week. However, I’m not sure about giving three on the road. Well, when you’re behind like I am, you gotta take chances—I’ll give the points.
Texans at Colts(-9)
Lots of people seem high on the Texans right now, and they’ve earned a bit of respect on the current streak. However, don’t think for a second the Colts don’t know this, and that they won’t be ready. The Texans have a horrible history against the Colts and I expect them to rip the heart out of all of us once again. However, getting blown out will not be a heartbreaker—the Texans will lose this one in some horrible way, just like the Sage Rosenfels game last year… but I don’t think they’ll get blown out, so I’m taking the points.
Chiefs at Jaguars(-6.5)
The Jags are reeling right now—they seem like they should be a lot better. KC sucks, too, but I’m not sure the Jags should be laying almost a TD against anybody right now.
Packers at Buccaneers(+10)
Tampa cannot, just cannot, defend the pass at all. The Packers’ offensive line is shaky, but in this game they most certainly don’t have to be solid for them to have a big day. Huge blowout here.
Dolphins at Patriots(-10.5)
Man, that’s a lot of points. On the other hand, facing the Pats when they’ve had two weeks to prepare and get people healthy is not good. Plus, after being torched the first time they faced the wildcat—don’t think the Pats have forgotten about that—the Pats have handled it pretty easily since. I don’t like giving this many, but I think I have to.
4pm
Panthers at Saints(-14)
The Panthers are just simply awful. Look, they can give the Saints’ offense the week off and still win by 14. Jake “Pick” Delhomme will probably throw enough picks returned for TDs that Brees can sit this one out, and I don’t think that Brees will sit this one out. The Saints are on a mission to lock up home field for the playoffs and they want to keep the Vikings at bay for that spot. They’ll roll huge.
Lions at Seahawks(-10)
If you can’t beat the Rams at home, you just straight-up suck, badly. Give the ten.
Chargers at Giants(-4.5)
Well, this is getting down to put up or shut up time for these two teams. When the rubber meets the road, you can always count on one thing: the Chargers are coached by Norv Turner. I’m taking the G-men.
Titans at 49ers(-4.5)
I think Tennessee caught the Jags napping last week. That won’t happen this week; the Niners gave the Colts a real game and they know they’re better than Tennessee. They’ll handle them by a TD.
SNF
Cowboys at Eagles(-3)
Yes, yes, the Cowboys have won a couple in a row and now everybody’s drooling over them. Well, let’s seem them do it on the road. Iggles.
MNF
Steelers at Broncos(+3)
In general, I like teams coming off the bye. Guys get healthy and coaches have an extra week of film to look at and plan against. Tomlin is no dummy and he’ll follow the Ravens’ blueprint from last week: get after Orton hard and go vertical. Denver is still a good team, so I expect them to respond, but I think the Steelers will pull it out… by about a field goal. Argh. I would give this without thought at 2 and I’d probably take it if it were 4. Argh. OK, I’ll take the Stillers coming off the bye.
And here are Al’s picks, copied in from last week’s thread:
—————————————————————————–
Sunday 1pm
Redskins at Falcons -10
I expect the Falcons to be a little flat this week after last week’s tough loss to the Saints. The Redskins D-line is no joke and will give Turner and the Falcons like some trouble. The Redskins offense is a joke, however. I expect it to be a little bit closer than 10 points. So I’ll take them.
Cardinals at Bears -3
Bears favored. Interesting. Arizona looked awful last week against the Panthers. 5 picks by Warner? That ain’t happening again. Also, I think they looked past Carolina. I’ll take the points.
Ravens at Bengals +3
The Bengals have already beaten the Ravens in Baltimore. They play better as underdogs. This is an important intra-division game. The Bengals will keep it close, or even win. I’ll take the points.
Texans at Colts -9
The Colts are still awesome but they’ve come back to earth a little bit not covering against the Niners. Also, the Texans are looking at this like their super bowl. Losing Owen Daniels will hurt, but their offense is still good enough to keep it close. I’ll take the points.
Chiefs at Jaguars -6.5
The spread seems kind of low, which makes me want to pick the Jaguars. Especially at home. I feel like I’m being pushed in that direction which makes me wary. Larry Johnson is out, and I think that actually helps KC, both in the locker room and on the field. I’ll take the points.
Packers at Buccaneers +10
This should be an ugly game. The Bucs are horrible vs. the run and LAST against the pass. Look for Rodgers to light it up. Give the points.
Dolphins at Patriots -10.5
Belichek + Bye = Bad News for the Dolphins. Plus they let the Jets roll them for almost 400 yards last week. What are you gonna do with Brady and co.? Give the points.
4pm
Panthers at Saints -14
This game gives me a lot of trouble. The Saints don’t need this game and they were in a war last week. Plus this is an intra-division game and Carolina really wants it, especially after feeling good about last week’s win. Fourteen is a lot…ok, I’ll take the points.
Lions at Seahawks -10
I think Johnson is still out for the Lions, so they’ll have no hope. Yeah, the Seahawks are terrible, but somehow they’re still in the playoff picture and they have the capability of blowing bad teams out at home. I’ll give the 10.
Chargers at Giants – 4.5
I don’t know what everyone else is looking at, but the Giants have lost three in a row and looked really bad doing it. Manning is hurt and the defense is terrible. I’m going Chargers and I’m happy to get some points.
Titans at 49ers -4.5
I like the Titans in this game. Note that the Niners are playing backups at both Tackle positions on offense. The Titans can, sometimes, rush the passer. On the other side, don’t forget that Young is still playing and makes matchups difficult. I’ll take the points.
8pm
Cowboys at Eagles -3
The Eagles are playing really well right now. The Cowboys are winning too, but this will be their first road game in a long time. The Eagles own the Cowboys these days, so at home, I’m taking them. Give the points.
Monday 8pm
Steelers at Broncos +3
I think the Broncos are done. They were exposed a bit last week. Orton is really no good and now they’re starting a rookie at right tackle against the Steelers best pass rusher. The Broncos secondary is aging and I think that showed last week. Expect Big Ben to have a big game. This could be a blowout. Give the points and take the road team.
You mean 7-6, right? Just makin’ sure! 🙂
Yeah, 7-6. Typo.
Niners (-3) over the Bears tonight.
Week 10 picks
Thursday 8pm
Bears at Niners (-3)
I liked the Niners at home. The Bears don’t travel all that well. I didn’t anticipate 5 interceptions, but I’ll take it.
Sunday 1pm
Falcons at Panthers (+1.5)
This line is too small. The Falcons are good, people! They lost to three of the better teams in the league. I’ll give the points. Spread should be 5 or 6.
Buccaneers at Dolphins (-10)
The Dolphins don’t cover spreads. Their offense isn’t explosive enough. I’ll take the points.
Lions at Vikings (-16.5)
Obviously the Vikings will win, but will they win by 17? That seems like too much. Johnson and Stafford will play, so that should help (assuming its not a pick-fest). Take the points.
Jaguars at Jets (-7)
The Jets are thinking about nothing but the Patriots. I expect the Jets to win, but they won’t win by more than a touchdown. I will take the points.
Bengals at Steelers (-7)
Wow, the Steelers are getting an awful lot of respect, especially since the Bengals already beat them once. I’ll take the points in what I expect to be a close game.
Saints at Rams (+14)
Erm…Saints.
Bills at Titans (-8)
I think Vegas and everyone else is all hyped about the resurgent Titans and the spread is inflated. Still think the Titans will win because Young is awesome, but the spread should be 3 or 4. I’ll take the points.
Broncos at Redskins (+3.5)
The Broncos have lost two in a row, but against decent teams. The Redskins are not decent. I’ll give the points.
4pm
Chiefs at Raiders (-2)
Saw this trend. The road team has won the past 6 games in this series. I will go along with that. I’ll take the points.
Seahawks at Cardinals (-9)
It’s a divisional battle and not much travel for the Cardinals. They will win by plenty. Seattle just doesn’t have a strong enough O-Line to run or pass significantly enough to keep up with the Cardinals. Assuming low turnovers, I’m going to give the points.
Cowboys at Packers (+3)
The Packers O-Line is TERRIBLE and this game is going to be ugly. Aaron Rogers is going to get killed. Oh, and if you haven’t noticed, Romo and Miles Austin are on freaking fire. Give the points.
Eagles at Chargers (-1)
I like the Eagles as an underdog. The Chargers are overrated. They’re getting it done on Rivers’ heroics alone. McNabb will bounce back and maybe running the ball will be in the gameplan against the Chargers who are pretty poor agains the run. I’ll take the point.
8pm
Patriots at Colts (-2.5)
The Colts have a better offense and a better defense and they’re at home. I have no problem giving these points.
Monday 8pm
Ravens at Browns (+11)
Who scheduled the Browns on MNF? Whatever, the Ravens absolutely NEED this game and they will show up. They will destroy the Browns. I’ll give the big number.