I have to atone for the utter beating I took last year. Thursday was not a good start; stupid half-point.
Sunday 1:00
Broncos @ Jacksonville(-2.5)
Two teams that were very average last year, neither of whom I have any reason to think will be any different this year. I think Denver maybe has the better defense, and generally the defenses have the advantage early in the season, so I’ll go with the Broncos and the points.
Raiders @ Tennessee(-6)
I have the sense that Oakland will be better than they were last year, and I don’t see any reason to think that the Titans will be any better. On the other hand, they have Chris Johnson and the Raiders have… uhh… well, they have Raiders players. Oh, wait, no they have a merely average new quarterback, which is several levels better than what they had last year. Sure, again, I’ll take the points
Bengals @ New England(-4.5)
Something just seemed utterly wrong with the Bengals’ doing so well last season. I just can’t believe in them to look so good this year, and the T.O. thing never seems good to me. I’ll take the Pats at home.
Browns @ Tampa Bay(-3)
This has to be the worst game on the schedule for opening weekend. Ugh. For no particular reason, I’ll give the points.
Colts @ Houston((+2)
Looking forward to this one since I’ll be in the stands for it. I think the Texans will be about as good as they were last year, and because they play in a really tough division, it won’t be enough… again. All-time the Texans are 1-7 against the Colts—they just cannot seem to win these games, so I’m giving the two points.
Lions @ Chicago(-6.5)
I think the Bears will be awful again this season. Cutler is a head case, the defense is yet another year older, and I think the Lions will actually be better. Not good or anything, but maybe just kind of below average, like 6-10 or 7-9. I don’t see the Bears as being any better than that, so I like getting almost a full TD here.
Falcons @ Pittsburgh(+1.5)
Not taking a team starting Dixon for the first time ever. I think it’s going to be a long year for the Steelers.
Dolphins @ Buffalo(+3)
Nice of the league to make the “at Buffalo” game for Miami now rather than in, say, November or December. Anyway, it is my belief that C.J. Spiller is the real deal. However, Lee Evans isn’t getting any younger and Trent Edwards is still… Trent Edwards. The Dolphins might actually be pretty good this year with Henne having a year under his belt and with someone decent to throw to. Also, they’ll start the season with both Brown and Williams healthy, right? I’ll happily give these points.
Panthers @ New Jersey Giants(-6.5)
The battle of the Steve Smiths? Actually, I expect this to be an ugly slugfest. The ball might not cross midfield more than a handful of times. However, the Giants have a QB, and the Panthers don’t really. I’ll give the TD, I guess, but I don’t feel good about it.
Sunday 4:15
Packers @ Philadelphia(+3)
Pfffft. The Packers might be the class of the NFC this year, and Kolb has like what, three starts, none of which were particularly impressive. Packers cover by a ton. I’m surprised the spread is this small.
Cardinals @ St. Louis(+3.5)
A terrible game, competing with the Browns-Bucs for worst game of the day. This one at least has the intrigue of two questionable starting QB decisions both taking the field. With Wells hurt for Arizona, I don’t like them as a road favorite, even against the lowly Rams. I’ll take the points.
Niners @ Seattle(+3)
Ahh, the Pete Carroll era begins in the Emerald City. He was a train wreck his last time through the NFL, and now we see the reason he did so well at USC: he was cheating the whole time. (Given the consistently ridiculous level of talent that USC had, I can’t say I’m surprised—I never got the sense that Carroll was actually outcoaching anyone.) The Seabags, however, do not have any kind of edge in talent; they still have Hasselbeck at QB and nobody worth throwing to, so I’ll give the points.
SNF
Cowboys @ Washington(+3.5)
Uhh, anybody watch this matchup the last couple years? The Cowboys own the Redskins right now. Plus, it’s early in the season which is when Dallas has been at their best lately. Give the points.
MNF
Ravens @ New Jersey Jets(-2.5)
Well, with Revis in, the Jets just seem a lot better than they would have otherwise. On the other hand, the Ravens seem like a team on the rise, particularly with Flacco coming along and now finally actually having someone to throw to—though that might not matter much if none of those guys are ever open. I like the Jets in this game, but just to riverside Al, I’m taking the points and hoping it’s really close.
Chargers @ Kansas City(+4.5)
San Diego just wins this division by default, don’t they? It’s not like the Chefs have the goods to put up much of a fight. Give the points.