I have to atone for the utter beating I took last year. Thursday was not a good start; stupid half-point.
Sunday 1:00
Broncos @ Jacksonville(-2.5)
Two teams that were very average last year, neither of whom I have any reason to think will be any different this year. I think Denver maybe has the better defense, and generally the defenses have the advantage early in the season, so I’ll go with the Broncos and the points.
Raiders @ Tennessee(-6)
I have the sense that Oakland will be better than they were last year, and I don’t see any reason to think that the Titans will be any better. On the other hand, they have Chris Johnson and the Raiders have… uhh… well, they have Raiders players. Oh, wait, no they have a merely average new quarterback, which is several levels better than what they had last year. Sure, again, I’ll take the points
Bengals @ New England(-4.5)
Something just seemed utterly wrong with the Bengals’ doing so well last season. I just can’t believe in them to look so good this year, and the T.O. thing never seems good to me. I’ll take the Pats at home.
Browns @ Tampa Bay(-3)
This has to be the worst game on the schedule for opening weekend. Ugh. For no particular reason, I’ll give the points.
Colts @ Houston((+2)
Looking forward to this one since I’ll be in the stands for it. I think the Texans will be about as good as they were last year, and because they play in a really tough division, it won’t be enough… again. All-time the Texans are 1-7 against the Colts—they just cannot seem to win these games, so I’m giving the two points.
Lions @ Chicago(-6.5)
I think the Bears will be awful again this season. Cutler is a head case, the defense is yet another year older, and I think the Lions will actually be better. Not good or anything, but maybe just kind of below average, like 6-10 or 7-9. I don’t see the Bears as being any better than that, so I like getting almost a full TD here.
Falcons @ Pittsburgh(+1.5)
Not taking a team starting Dixon for the first time ever. I think it’s going to be a long year for the Steelers.
Dolphins @ Buffalo(+3)
Nice of the league to make the “at Buffalo” game for Miami now rather than in, say, November or December. Anyway, it is my belief that C.J. Spiller is the real deal. However, Lee Evans isn’t getting any younger and Trent Edwards is still… Trent Edwards. The Dolphins might actually be pretty good this year with Henne having a year under his belt and with someone decent to throw to. Also, they’ll start the season with both Brown and Williams healthy, right? I’ll happily give these points.
Panthers @ New Jersey Giants(-6.5)
The battle of the Steve Smiths? Actually, I expect this to be an ugly slugfest. The ball might not cross midfield more than a handful of times. However, the Giants have a QB, and the Panthers don’t really. I’ll give the TD, I guess, but I don’t feel good about it.
Sunday 4:15
Packers @ Philadelphia(+3)
Pfffft. The Packers might be the class of the NFC this year, and Kolb has like what, three starts, none of which were particularly impressive. Packers cover by a ton. I’m surprised the spread is this small.
Cardinals @ St. Louis(+3.5)
A terrible game, competing with the Browns-Bucs for worst game of the day. This one at least has the intrigue of two questionable starting QB decisions both taking the field. With Wells hurt for Arizona, I don’t like them as a road favorite, even against the lowly Rams. I’ll take the points.
Niners @ Seattle(+3)
Ahh, the Pete Carroll era begins in the Emerald City. He was a train wreck his last time through the NFL, and now we see the reason he did so well at USC: he was cheating the whole time. (Given the consistently ridiculous level of talent that USC had, I can’t say I’m surprised—I never got the sense that Carroll was actually outcoaching anyone.) The Seabags, however, do not have any kind of edge in talent; they still have Hasselbeck at QB and nobody worth throwing to, so I’ll give the points.
SNF
Cowboys @ Washington(+3.5)
Uhh, anybody watch this matchup the last couple years? The Cowboys own the Redskins right now. Plus, it’s early in the season which is when Dallas has been at their best lately. Give the points.
MNF
Ravens @ New Jersey Jets(-2.5)
Well, with Revis in, the Jets just seem a lot better than they would have otherwise. On the other hand, the Ravens seem like a team on the rise, particularly with Flacco coming along and now finally actually having someone to throw to—though that might not matter much if none of those guys are ever open. I like the Jets in this game, but just to riverside Al, I’m taking the points and hoping it’s really close.
Chargers @ Kansas City(+4.5)
San Diego just wins this division by default, don’t they? It’s not like the Chefs have the goods to put up much of a fight. Give the points.
Sunday 1:00
Broncos @ Jacksonville(-2.5)
The Broncos have better talent and a better organization. The Jaguars team and front office seem to have no faith in Del Rio – he’s only there because the owner is too cheap to pay him off. Oh, and they have the worse pass rush in football. Broncos.
Raiders @ Tennessee(-6)
I like the Titans to win on the strength of Johnson, but 6 points is too much. The Raiders should be improved on defense, especially against the run. Raiders.
Bengals @ New England(-4.5)
The Pats are dangerous. They didn’t make the playoffs and the Jets are favored to win the division. They have a chip the size of Belichik’s ego on their shoulders and don’t forget that Brady is healthy now (don’t think he ever was last year). This could be a rout. Pats.
Browns @ Tampa Bay(-3)
In a battle of two bad teams, I think the Browns are bit ahead in terms of talent and experience. That may change by the end of the year as I expect Tampa to improve. I’ll take the points and the Browns.
Colts @ Houston((+2)
Hard to pick against Peyton in the regular season against a middling to bad opponent…hell any opponent. I have no problem giving the 2 points. Colts.
Lions @ Chicago(-6.5)
The Lions did a lot this offseason. The Bears did not. The wrong team is favored. Cutler is the most sacked qb in the NFL and the Bears have what could be the worst secondary in the league. I like the Lions.
Falcons @ Pittsburgh(+1.5)
I think everyone is all over the Falcons on this one. Will Pittsburgh roll over because Ben isn’t playing? Will the Falcons be overconfident for the same reason? I think the Falcons will be running into a buzz saw here. Wish there were more points, but I’ll take them. Steelers.
Dolphins @ Buffalo(+3)
The Bills suck, but I totally expect the Dolphins to look right past them judging by the schedule. They’ll play badly and I expect the Bills to get an early win. Bills.
Panthers @ New Jersey Giants(-6.5)
Can the Giants stop the run? If they can, they should win. If they can’t (I don’t think they can) it will be a long day for them. I like getting the points. Panthers.
Sunday 4:15
Packers @ Philadelphia(+3)
I think the Pack is going to be really good this year. Philly is a speed bump. Packers.
Cardinals @ St. Louis(+3.5)
The Cards are still very good. The Rams are still very bad. I’m fine with dropping the points. Arizona.
Niners @ Seattle(+3)
The Niners are the sexy pick in the West this year. Who knows if Alex Smith will perform well, but Frank Gore is really good and they should be able to block for him. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have no offensive line. In fact, someone should look into bringing charges against Carroll for putting that team out there because Hasselbeck is gonna get hurt. Bad. Niners.
SNF
Cowboys @ Washington(+3.5)
Looking back, the Redskins have played the Cowboys very close. At home, with a good pass rush, I think they have a shot. I’ll take the points.
MNF
Ravens @ New Jersey Jets(-2.5)
I actually like the Ravens in this game. There’s no way the Jets can live up to this hype and, well…Sanchez ain’t Broadway Joe. I’ve seen nothing in the preseason that makes me comfortable with this offense (highest paid center in the league notwithstanding). But fine. I won’t let your Riverside go to waste. Jets.
Chargers @ Kansas City(+4.5)
There is no reason for this game to be close. Chargers.