NFL Week 12 Picks

Bleah, sick as a dog…

Sunday 1:00
Vikings @ Washington(+1.5)
Wrong team favored, take the Redskins all the way. Just because Chili is gone doesn’t mean the Vikings will have a resurgence like the Cowboys.

Steelers @ Buffalo(+6.5)
I like the Bills to keep it close, which they’ve done a lot of this season. Lose, but keep it close.

Panthers @ Cleveland(-9.5)
Wow, Carolina is bad, but are they really 10 points worse than Cleveland? On the road, I think so.

Titans @ Houston(-6)
Please, the Texans shouldn’t be giving six to anybody right now.

Jaguars @ New Jersey Giants(-7)
Seems like too many points to me, as the Jags have been game of late.

Packers @ Atlanta(-2)
The spread seems about right. I won’t bet against the Falcons at home, but the Packers will probably keep it close. I like the Falcons here because they can actually run the ball–that’ll be the difference.

Sunday ~4:10
Chiefs @ Seattle(+2.5)
KC is not a very good road team. Seattle is traditionally a good home team. I think the Chiefs are a better team overall, but they can’t play all their games at Arrowhead, so I’m taking the points.

Dolphins @ Oakland(-2.5)
Thigpen still, right? Raiders.

Buccaneers @ Baltimore(-7.5)
Hey now, Tampa’s actually been good! Not sure how, but they have, and I think that’s too many points.

Eagles @ Chicago(+3.5)
The Bears, on the other hand, are not as good as their record. Philly will set that right; give the points.

Rams @ Denver(-3.5)
The Broncos seem to be crashing, despite the big number they put up on KC. i like the Rams defense to keep this one manageable and maybe even pull off the win.

SNF
Chargers @ Indianapolis(-3)
This is the game of the week, I think, Bolts vs. Colts. I hate picking against the Colts at home, and I hate picking against the Chargers in the second half of the season. And have you looked at the injury reports for these two teams? Yikes! While I’ll be rooting for the Chargers, I have to think the Colts at home just have a little bit too much vs. a very depleted Chargers squad.

MNF
Niners @ Arizona(+1)
I cannot pick a team with no quarterback, so that means… oh, yeah, that’s a problem here, isn’t it? Hmm. Well, the Cardinals are completely horrible, and the Niners only kind of suck, so I’ll take SF here, I guess.

Turkey Day Picks

Patriots @ Detroit(+7)
The Lions have been pretty good against the spread this year and the Pats are only really awesome on the road. On the other hand, the Lions have a history of getting just killed on Thanksgiving, and no Stafford, and the Pats are in a tight divisional race. No chance the Pats lose, but will they cover? I think the spread is just right because I feel a push is likely here. If there’s a stronger force at work here than the Lions being awful on Turkey Day, I don’t know what that is. Pats.

Saints @ Dallas(+4)
Tough game to pick. The Cowboys seem rejuvenated but the Saints are playing well, too. I do think Dallas will keep it close but not quite close enough to cover. I think the Saints want a little payback for last year, so I’ll take them to cover.

Bengals @ New Jersey Jets(-9)
The Jets are a lot better, no doubt about it. However, that’s a lot of points and the Jets really have been keeping it exciting lately. Just to riverside Al, I’ll take the Bungles and the truckload of points. Hopefully the Jets will be looking past this game.

NFL Week 11

I have to admit to a certain lack of enthusiasm about the season at this point…

Sunday 1:00
Bills @ Cincinnati(-5)
Buffalo may have only one win, but they’re great against the spread. They’ll keep it close, so I’ll take the points.

Lions @ Dallas(-6.5)
Look, if the Lions can’t beat the Bills, I don’t see them beating the Cowboys… that is, if the Cowboys actually show up.

Cardinals @ Kansas City(-8)
I don’t know what happened last week in Denver, but you can be sure the Chiefs got read the riot act after that one. Plus, it’s the Cardinals on the road. Give the points.

Texans @ New Jersey Jets(-7)
Unbelievably ugly loss for the Texans last week. I think that broke their will, I don’t think they show up this week.

Browns @ Jacksonville(-2)
Strangely, the Jags have it going on. Nobody will be there to see it, but I think they cover.

Raiders @ Pittsburgh(-7.5)
I don’t think the Raiders will win, but for some reason I’m thinking they keep it to a TD or less.

Ravens @ Carolina(+11.5)
This could get ugly very early on. The Ravens’ defense could probably win by a couple TDs. I’d give 13.5 without batting an eyelash, and I might give as much as 17. Baltimore all the way.

Packers @ Minnesota(+3)
The Vikings are in a tailspin and the Packers will want to stick it to them… and I don’t think the Vikings can stop them.

Redskins @ Tennessee(-7)
They paid how much money to re-sign McNabb? Because he’s putting up such great numbers? I don’t know, though, if a Titans team with no healthy QB should by laying a TD to anyone. I think I’ll take the points.

Sunday ~4:10
Falcons @ St. Louis(+3)
This is an important game for Atlanta, because they need to show they can beat a decent team on the road, and the Rams are a decent team, at least at home. I have absolutely no idea… Rams?

Seahawks @ New Orleans(-12)
Seems like too many points for two horribly inconsistent teams. I’ll take those points.

Colts @ New England(-4)
I don’t like this game one bit. The Colts can’t run the ball at all, and being one-dimensional against the Pats is never good. But what Pats are these? Certainly not the dominating defense of old. However, this is the Colts on the road on grass. I like Brady’s bunch to cover.

SNF
Giants @ Philly(-3)
WTF was that last week? The Giants, I mean. Completely didn’t show up at all. I think they’ll show up this week, but I’m not sure that’ll matter. I don’t think Vick will go nuts like last week, and the Eagles’ defense isn’t going to be great against the Giants, but I still like the Eagles to win.

MNF
Broncos @ San Diego(-9.5)
It appears to be the second half of the season, meaning the Chargers will almost certainly win, especially at home. But will they win by a lot? Not sure with Gates still being a question mark. Denver has to be pretty confident going in after last week. I say they keep it closer than 10.

FNM Report, 11/19/2010

I had missed FNM the previous week for a “date night” with my wife, and the week before that I had one of the worst MTG nights ever—lost games to getting stuck on 2 land when running 28 land Valakut. Just not my night.

So this week I wanted to take a deck I knew was solid, and so I went with RUG, which has certainly been doing well lately. Here was my build:

[deck title=UGr Ramp Control]
[Creatures]
3 Oracle of Mul Daya
2 Avenger of Zendikar
2 Frost Titan
4 Lotus Cobra
[/Creatures]
[Planeswalkers]
1 Garruk Wildspeaker
4 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
[/Planeswalkers]
[Spells]
4 Preordain
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Explore
4 Mana Leak
1 Volition Reins
[/Spells]
[Land]
4 Forest
4 Island
2 Mountain
3 Copperline Gorge
2 Halimar Depths
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Raging Ravine
4 Scalding Tarn
[/Land]
[Sideboard]
3 Pyroclasm
2 Obstinate Baloth
2 Spell Pierce
2 Flashfreeze
1 Volition Reins
3 Goblin Ruinblaster
2 Lavaball Trap
[/Sideboard]
[/deck]

It seems trendy right now to run Ruinblasters in the main but I wasn’t so sure and wanted to run the Volition Reins and the Garruk instead. Garruk was awesome—there is no way I would cut him—but the Reins was almost never what I wanted to see. I would cut that and the one in the board if I were to play this again.

Turnout at Montag’s wasn’t very good, so only four rounds cutting to top 4.

Round 1: Mike, playing UB Control
I’d not seen Mike at the shop before so I had no idea what to expect. Game 1 he had only one Island and three Swamps, and I had ramped a little and used Reins on his lone Island, and that quickly ended that game. Game 2 was equally dumb the other way. I had a lot of UU spells in my hand but could not find a second Island for the life of me. He got an early Creeping Tar Pit that went all the way. This is partly my fault as I had sided out most of my Bolts and failed to side in the Ruinblasters. I fixed that and we went to game 3. Game 3 I drew out counters with a Ruinblaster and something else, then stuck Garruk, made a token, and the next turn stuck a Frost Titan. We played counter war after that, but he never stopped my pair of dudes.
1-0 matches, 2-1 games

Round 2: Jason, playing BG Infect
I had been rounded down, so I really had to win this one. Game 1 was pretty bad. He got T1 BoP, turn 2 Plague Stinger, turn 3 Vines of Vastwood (kicked) and I had five poison counters. I never managed to fully stabilize after that because I never drew an answer to the Stinger. Game 2 I had early removal, then ramped into a Frost Titan, then the second Frost Titan, which locked him down completely. Game 3 I got the Oracle/Jace/Cobra engine going and kicked out an Avenger that made 10 plant tokens, then pumped them to 4/5. I attacked for something like 58 total.
2-0 matches, 4-2 games

Round 3: Marvin, playing UB Control
Game 1 we went back and forth a little, countered a few of each other’s things, killed a couple things on each side, but I managed to stick an Avenger and that sealed it. Game 2 I mulliganed down to 5 (two one-land openers) and had trouble getting double green. He hit me with Memoricide for Avenger (I had one in my hand at the time) and I just could not get there when he dropped a Jwar Isle Sphinx. Game 3 he got stuck on two land, but leaked my turn 3 Ruinblaster and then my turn 4 Jace and my turn 5 play, whatever that was. Turn 6 I did stick a Jace, then an Oracle, and that was it.
3-0 matches, 6-3 games

Round 4: Paul, playing RDW
We ID’d since we were guaranteed to be in.
3-0-1 matches, 6-3 games

Semifinals: Carlos, playing UG
Carlos and I have a tendency to alternate who wins, and he won last time, so I felt like I had the upper hand. Game 1 I managed both Garruk and Jace and got an Avenger first, but had to tap out for it, and then he cast… a kicked Rite of Replication. OK, well, then. Game 2 I again got Garruk and Jace, and then I got an Avenger. He came back with a Ratchet Bomb and killed my Beast token and all my plants. I bounced my Avenger with Jace, then re-played it for a new suite of plant tokens, and used Garruk to untap for a counter. He tried something, I countered, he played Jace to kill mine, but I had many plants and Garruk’s ultimate, so that was mine. Game 3 was all about Spell Pierce. On my turn 3 i played a fetch, but didn’t crack it. He went for a Cultivate and I Spell Pierced it. I kept drawing counters, he kept drawing and playing land. Eventually I went up to seven land with a Frost Titan and a Pierce in hand. Carlos played something (I don’t remember what) that I countered, then on my turn I tapped six for the Titan, he countered, and I Pierced his counter. I just held counters in my hand and let the Titan go all the way.
4-0-1 matches, 8-4 games

Finals: Travis, playing Elves
Travis is a Montag’s regular and a cool guy. We decided to split prizes and play for points. He won the roll and got the god draw and just threw a zillion little dudes onto the table. He had turn 1 Llanowar Elf, turn 2 Treespeaker, level, turn 3 Garruk, untap 2, play more Elves, turn 4 Genesis Wave for like three more guys including an archdruid. Yeah. I got what would normally have been considered a good draw: turn 2 Cobra, turn 3 Jace, turn 4 Frost Titan—and I wasn’t even in this game. Yikes. Game 2 I got a turn 2 Explore and then was able to Pyroclasm away two guys on his side, then dropped a Cobra, then Jace, then an Oracle, and that was too much as my deck just spewed a pile of land onto the table and then an Avenger. Game 3 he kept a 1-lander—not usually all that dangerous for Elves—that also had the green Leyline in it. But he had no 1-drop. I ramped into a turn 3 Jace off a Cobra and fatesealed him. My next two turns were Garruk and an Oracle, fatesealing him both times, successfully keeping him off either a second land or a 1-drop, and he scooped.
5-0-1 matches, 10-5 games

The prize pool wasn’t very big because of the low turnout, but I got a Venser and a couple other cards for my trouble, so all in all, a good night. Also nice to not drop a match, of course. After it was over, a few of us stayed and played a couple games of Ascension, which was the first time I had played it. Fun game!

Odd night in that I never lost a match, but all my matches were 2-1. I think this is because the deck has such sensitive mana requirements—you really want both double Blue and double Green available early. It’s not that hard to get with this deck, but when you don’t it’s crippling. Seems like I had trouble with this about once every three games, hence all the 2-1 outcomes. RUG is obviously a strong deck. The Jace/Oracle synergy is, of course, crazy good and if there’s a Cobra in play it’s silly. The Red is almost incidental and I can see why people have been successful using Black in its place. The best part of the Red is Pyroclasm from the sideboard, which is really good against things like Elves and WW. (I have an Ice Age Pyroclasm and I got a lot of comments from bystanders about how cool that is.) The deck is also a little soft to fliers overall since you can never block them, not even chump blocking, so that puts a lot of pressure on to bounce them with Jace or make them the lockdown target for Frost Titan.

Not sure what to play next time. Right now I’m leaning toward Shearer’s WGU Shaman deck, because that looks like fun. That’s actually why I picked up a Venser. I love the idea of Gideon-Sunblast Angel-Venser, even if that combo comes from the sideboard and even if it’s not really all that great, it just seems fun.

So I Caved and Got an iPad

About six months ago in this space, I noted my possibly surprising lack of intention to get an iPad. I own pretty much every other Apple gizmo possible (now including both generations of Apple TV—at least they’re hooked up to different TVs), so why not an iPad? My reasoning was that the 2nd generation is likely to have better screen resolution, which is particularly important for reading.

No, Apple didn’t release a high-res iPad, but I went in anyway. So, what happened? Well, some discretionary money at work had to be spent by the end of the calendar year (which, frankly, I’d rather carry over for next year and spend on travel; technically, my employer actually owns the iPad) and I have some travel coming up for which I’d really like to have a computer, but I don’t want to lug my full laptop package. The last trip I tried that on I just brought my hackintoshed netbook with me, but I have to say, I actively dislike that machine for a variety of reasons, including (but not limited to) the crappy small screen, the vile trackpad, the crummy keyboard, and the weak battery life. Also, my wife really wants an iPad for Christmas and, being the good Apple zealot that I am, I didn’t want to go into supporting that experiment without some experience first.

So I’ve had an iPad for about a week now—what do I think?

First, yes, in a lot of ways it’s really a big iPod Touch. But while a lot of people mean that as a criticism, I don’t see it that way at all. I’ve been using an iPhone for a couple years now and so everything feels familiar. Plus, there is something highly significant about the “big” part. Having a larger screen than a phone makes a qualitative difference—it’s not just more, it’s something different. The iPhone is a fantastic mobile computer, but it’s still a phone. The iPad feels like a “real” computer. It’s not quite a replacement for my 15″ MacBook, but then neither is a crappy netbook. But it’s definitely better than the netbook for the tasks that I actually did on that machine, things like email and web browsing. And it’s definitely better for leisurely movie watching. I strongly suspect that Jobs is right and 7” isn’t really big enough for a really good tablet. If anything I think the iPad could be a smidge bigger, actually, without trouble, maybe 10.5” on the diagonal rather than 9.7”. The soft keyboard, which I actually don’t mind, wouldn’t be hurt by being a smidge bigger, but it would really suck for it to be any smaller.

That said, I’m eagerly awaiting the release of iOS 4.2. Not so much for the multitasking (which I appreciate, but is WAY overblown as a concern for end users; mostly I care in order to have an IM client running while I do other things, and that’s pretty frivolous), but because one of the apps I need to have for the iPad is waiting for 4.2. That’d be OmniOutliner. I feel like I think in hierarchies and I certainly organize by them, and I have probably thousands of OO documents on my hard disk. OmniGroup has said that the iPad version won’t be released until after 4.2 comes out, and so I wait with bated breath. This is my primary note-taking and organization app, so I feel slightly crippled in meetings without it.

So far, I’ve been pretty impressed with the software available for the iPad. I cannot for the life of me figure out why Apple didn’t include the iPhone “Clock” application with the iPad, but otherwise so far, so good. The iWork suite seems pretty good on the iPad though there are still some things I cannot quite grok in places (e.g., how do you edit master slides in Keynote?) and it’s great that lots of my favorite iPhone apps already have iPad versions, often the same version for no extra cost. It’s also nice to see other desktop Mac favorites showing up on the iPad, though usually for extra money. Special shout out to BareBones for the iPad version of Yojimbo, which is excellent, though it’d be even better if it supported iDisk sync. (Note to BBSW: I would pay good money for an iPad version of TextWrangler or BBEdit, too. I’d be willing to beta test!) And there are some other little bits of cool that are just too good to resist, like DisplayPad.

There are some weaknesses, too, of course. One of my current peeves on the software end is that you cannot install fonts on the iPad, which hoses many of my Keynote presentations. It’d also be nice if there was somewhat better feature parity between desktop and iPad versions of the iWork suite, again, particularly Keynote. That Facebook doesn’t have an iPad-native client is shocking, though if it sucks as much as the iPhone client, maybe that’s not such a bad thing. (Unfortunately, Mobile Safari doesn’t do chat in Facebook. I don’t care, but my wife does.) I actually expected there to be more difficulty in getting documents off and on the iPad, but most (though not all; I’m especially looking at you, MacJournal) apps support either Dropbox or iDisk and going through “the cloud” (I hate that term) isn’t too bad, really. Sidebar: Apple, get your freakin’ act together and either buy Dropbox or make iDisk as good. iDisk is an embarrassment compared to Dropbox. End sidebar, though actually that’d be a good tweet.

On the hardware end, the form factor is fantastic. The first time I held one I initially thought it might be a bit too heavy to hold while reading, but that hasn’t been a problem so far. The Apple case that props up one side of it is also terrific, though it’d be nice if it came in colors other than black. The battery life is truly excellent, as advertised. The biggest thing I’d like to see still is, of course, a higher screen resolution. I’ve gotten very used to the iPhone’s kick-ass display, and while I don’t expect 300+ ppi, I’d still really rather have 200+. I can see why people would want a camera, but I don’t see the lack of one as a big weakness.

Overall, I’m quite impressed, particularly for a 1.0 Apple product. For $500 it’s amazing. Maybe not so amazing at $830 for max storage and 3G, but if you don’t really need the 3G and aren’t a spacehog, I think it’s pretty remarkable for a company well-known for being expensive.

Anybody got a recommendation for a small travel Bluetooth keyboard? I’m not sure I really need it but if there’s a good cheap one, it might be worth a look…

NFL Week 10

Sunday 1:00
Lions @ Buffalo(-2)
Hey, how about that, the Bills are favored. I mean, it’s at home against the Lions, but still. Unfortunately, this is a bad matchup for the Bills, who are good against the run but last in the league in giving up… TD passes. I have the Lions here.

Jets @ Cleveland(+3)
Gang Green is living on borrowed time right now, and the Browns are hot. I’ll take the three and hope they can keep it close.

Panthers @ Tampa Bay(-7)
Carolina is in a dead heat with Arizona for that “worst QB situation in the league” award. Bucs cover this.

Bengals @ Indianapolis(-7)
Awesome when the Colts lose. First, it’s just generally great when they lose. Second, it depresses the spread for the next week. Indy at home is a lock here.

Titans @ Miami, pick
Yeah, I don’t think Chad Pennington off the bench is the answer. I like not having to give the points when I pick Tennessee here.

Vikings @ Bears(+1)
Minnesota is imploding badly. Now, the Bears are awful and simply cannot protect Cutler, and the Vikings have a pass rush, but the Vikings are horrific on the road and will find a way to lose this.

Texans @ Jacksonville(-1)
The real culprit in last weeks’ loss to the Chargers was the Texans’ secondary, or lack thereof. However, they sure got a lot of help from the refs; that was the single worst intentional grounding call I’ve ever seen. The tight end was right there! Totally ludicrous, and of course that’s not a reviewable call. Ugly. Anyway, the Texans’ other problem is that Andre is hurt and has been for most of the season. Owen Daniels is still out, Schaub is banged up (though playing)… I just don’t see it. And that’s why I’m picking the Texans, because they seem to go against what I expect.

Sunday ~4:10
Chiefs @ Denver(+1)
The Broncos are awful, but the Chiefs have been pretty bad on the road and are struggling. Look KC to rebound here.

Rams @ San Francisco(-5.5)
I know that the Rams are much better at home and the Niners are playing better, but I still like the Rams here getting almost a TD. I’ll take the points.

Seahawks @ Arizona(-3)
The sad part of this is that some team from this horrible division will get to go to the playoffs. Both of these teams are awful, but I think the Cards are worse, unable to hold a lead against the lowly Vikings. I’ll take the Seabags on the road, but only because they’re getting points.

Cowboys @ New Jersey Giants(-14)
Wow, that’s a truckload of points. Of course, the Giants have been lighting it up lately, and Dallas is a train wreck, which is fantastic—couldn’t happen to a nicer team & owner. This feels like too many points to give in an NFL game, but then this is Jon Kitna on the road. Yeah, OK, give the two TDs. Yikes.

SNF
Patriots @ Pittsburgh(-4.5)
The Pats have been doing it this year with smoke and mirrors, whereas I think the Stillers are the real deal, at least on grass. I think they’ll cover this at home.

MNF
Eagles @ Washington(+3)
WTF was all that nonsense from Shanahan? I think he’s actually an average coach without Elway, and the Skins have no answer for Vick. Iggles.

Week 10 Thursday NFLN

Ravens @ Atlanta(-1)
Both teams are 6-2 overall; Falcons are 4-4 vs. the spread, Ravens are 4-3-1 vs. the spread. Tossup, right? I’d say there are two factors here: (1) AFC is better this year, giving an edge to the Ravens, and (2) Both teams are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. The game is in Atlanta, so that gives an edge to the Falcons—and the spread is 1, which seems about right. No major injuries on either side—Roddy White is dinged up but expected to play—so this really is a tossup indeed.

So, what to do? I think Ryan has gotten over his early-season issues, and I think the “at home” effect is somewhat more powerful than the AFC-NFC difference, so I’m going with Atlanta.

NFL Week 9

So, I finally sat down and did results since… uhh, Week 2 was the last update. Oops. Anyway, I’ve been horrible and am now 50-62-4 while Al has been much better at 51-49-4. However, Al didn’t generate picks for Week 4 that I could find anywhere, either on the web site or in email, so I either get to miss a week or punt a week… that 3-12 week seems like a good candidate. So I’m still behind, but not by THAT much…

Sunday 1:00
Jets @ Detroit(+5)
I don’t see the Jets looking like that again against the Lions’ defense. Give the points.

Buccaneers @ Atlanta(-9)
I think the Falcons are better, but not a lot better. Seems like too many, so I’ll take Tampa.

Dolphins @ Baltimore(-5)
For some odd reason, the Dolphins play better on the road. I will take the points.

Patriots @ Cleveland(+4)
The Browns are playing pretty well right now, but New England is on fire right now. Gotta go with Brady’s bunch.

Cardinals @ Minnesota(-7.5)
Is Arizona awful? Yes. But the Vikings are looking at becoming the poster child for “implosion.” Not sure they’re a TD better than anyone right now, so I’ll take the points.

Bears @ Buffalo(+3)
Even though the Bills are 0-7, I think the spread is only 3 because they’ve been keeping it close a lot lately and Chicago has played like total crap. Seems good enough for me, take the points.

Chargers @ Houston(+3)
A brief look at the calendar reveals that it’s the second half of the season, meaning the Chargers are dangerous now. The Texans still can’t stop the pass and just kind of looked a little off against the Colts, plus they have the short week… I don’t like it. I’ll go with San Diego, though I hope I’m wrong.

Saints @ Carolina(+6.5)
Panthers still suck.

Sunday ~4:10
Giants @ Seattle(+7)
Just how well are the G-Men playing these days? Surely a hell of a lot better than the Seabags, right? Give the points.

Colts @ Philadelphia(-3)
Yes, yes, the Indy injury list is long. But (1) the AFC is much better than the NFC, and (2) Manning is the best small-game quarterback maybe ever. This is not a big game, really, so Colts.

Chiefs @ Oakland, pick
Methinks the spread is deflated because KC only barely escaped last week—but the Bills are the gamest winless team in recent memory. I think the Chiefs are OK, and will win this one, even on the road.

SNF
Cowboys @ Packers(-7)
Jon Kitna still at QB? Check. Packers have a LB playing out of his mind now? Check. Give the points.

MNF
Steelers @ Cincinnati(+5)
The Bengals were supposed to be better, but they can’t run, and the worst thing you can be vs. the Steelers is a one-dimensional passing team. Palmer throws what, three picks? Pittsburgh.