So, I finally sat down and did results since… uhh, Week 2 was the last update. Oops. Anyway, I’ve been horrible and am now 50-62-4 while Al has been much better at 51-49-4. However, Al didn’t generate picks for Week 4 that I could find anywhere, either on the web site or in email, so I either get to miss a week or punt a week… that 3-12 week seems like a good candidate. So I’m still behind, but not by THAT much…
Sunday 1:00
Jets @ Detroit(+5)
I don’t see the Jets looking like that again against the Lions’ defense. Give the points.
Buccaneers @ Atlanta(-9)
I think the Falcons are better, but not a lot better. Seems like too many, so I’ll take Tampa.
Dolphins @ Baltimore(-5)
For some odd reason, the Dolphins play better on the road. I will take the points.
Patriots @ Cleveland(+4)
The Browns are playing pretty well right now, but New England is on fire right now. Gotta go with Brady’s bunch.
Cardinals @ Minnesota(-7.5)
Is Arizona awful? Yes. But the Vikings are looking at becoming the poster child for “implosion.” Not sure they’re a TD better than anyone right now, so I’ll take the points.
Bears @ Buffalo(+3)
Even though the Bills are 0-7, I think the spread is only 3 because they’ve been keeping it close a lot lately and Chicago has played like total crap. Seems good enough for me, take the points.
Chargers @ Houston(+3)
A brief look at the calendar reveals that it’s the second half of the season, meaning the Chargers are dangerous now. The Texans still can’t stop the pass and just kind of looked a little off against the Colts, plus they have the short week… I don’t like it. I’ll go with San Diego, though I hope I’m wrong.
Saints @ Carolina(+6.5)
Panthers still suck.
Sunday ~4:10
Giants @ Seattle(+7)
Just how well are the G-Men playing these days? Surely a hell of a lot better than the Seabags, right? Give the points.
Colts @ Philadelphia(-3)
Yes, yes, the Indy injury list is long. But (1) the AFC is much better than the NFC, and (2) Manning is the best small-game quarterback maybe ever. This is not a big game, really, so Colts.
Chiefs @ Oakland, pick
Methinks the spread is deflated because KC only barely escaped last week—but the Bills are the gamest winless team in recent memory. I think the Chiefs are OK, and will win this one, even on the road.
SNF
Cowboys @ Packers(-7)
Jon Kitna still at QB? Check. Packers have a LB playing out of his mind now? Check. Give the points.
MNF
Steelers @ Cincinnati(+5)
The Bengals were supposed to be better, but they can’t run, and the worst thing you can be vs. the Steelers is a one-dimensional passing team. Palmer throws what, three picks? Pittsburgh.
That’s strange. I don’t remember missing a week. Here’s the record from another pool I’m doing. The spreads may be a little different, but should be pretty close. I’ve also emailed this to you. Should be easier to read.
Player >> DEN 26 CIN 20 SF 14 BAL 17 NYJ 38 DET 26 CAR 14 SEA 3 IND 28 HOU 31 WAS 17 ARI 10 CHI 3 NE 41 Pts
TEN 20 CLE 23 ATL 16 PIT 14 BUF 14 GB 28 NO 16 STL 20 JAC 31 OAK 24 PHI 12 SD 41 NYG 17 MIA 14
TEN CLE ATL PIT BUF GB NO STL JAC OAK PHI SD NYG MIA
(-6.5) -3.5 (-6.5) (-1.5) -5.5 (-14.5) (-13.5) -0.5 -7.5 -3.5 (-6.5) (-8.5) (-3.5) -0.5
Final Final Final Final Final Final Final Final Final Final Final Final Final Final
Alex Kell TEN CIN SF PIT BUF DET CAR STL JAC OAK WAS SD CHI MIA 7
Sunday 1:00
Jets @ Detroit(+5)
I’m surprised the Lions played so well last week…or was it the Redskins playing so poorly? Obviously that team has some locker room issues. Detroit ranks really low against the run and the pass and I don’t think Stafford has seen a defense like this before. I’ll give the points and take the JETS.
Buccaneers @ Atlanta(-9)
That’s a huge spread. But the Bucs are last against the run and 24th against the pass. And the Falcons are at home where they have only lost once under Ryan. Ugh. Ok, I’ll give the points.
Dolphins @ Baltimore(-5)
I like the Dolphins getting points. They’ve hung with the Jets, the Pats, and the Steelers – and arguably should have won that Steelers game. They will hang with the Ravens too – the same Ravens with the suspect pass defense. I’ll take the points and Miami.
Patriots @ Cleveland(+4)
The Browns keep it close because New England doesn’t care about this game. They’re thinking about the Steelers next week. I’ll take the points and the Browns.
Cardinals @ Minnesota(-7.5)
The Cardinals are terrible – maybe the worst team in the league. They can’t stop the run and have no pass rush. It would be inexcusable for the Vikings to lose this game. But they have so many off-field things going on, plus the fact they have huge divisional games coming up in the next two weeks (CHI, GB), and an emotional loss last week. I really want to pick the Cardinals in this spot….but I can’t. They’re terrible. I’ll give the points and take the Vikings at home.
Bears @ Buffalo(+3)
I think the Bills might actually win one here! Take the points and Buffalo.
Chargers @ Houston(+3)
Houston has some major questions. Johnson doesn’t look healthy, and what are they if they can’t beat the Colts? That’s their entire focus and they have to be scratching their heads right now (here’s a hint – don’t abandon the run, jackasses). Anyway, the Chargers are hitting their stride. They will win and cover the 3 points.
Saints @ Carolina(+6.5)
The last time they played, there were some pretty crazy turnovers in Carolina’s favor. I’m guessing that doesn’t happen this time. Saints cover.
Sunday ~4:10
Giants @ Seattle(+7)
I actually like Seattle at home. Whitehurst is playing, not Hasselbeck, which I think actually will make the Seahawks play harder. And the Giants probably don’t care too much. They own their division right now. Take the points and the Seahawks.
Colts @ Philadelphia(-3)
I love the Colts here. The Eagles had a bye and Vick will start. When that doesn’t work, they’ll be lost. They have a crappy pass defense and Peyton should light it up, no matter who is suiting up outside. Getting points?!? Gift city. Take them and the Colts.
Chiefs @ Oakland, pick
The raiders have been so great, but I don’t trust them, especially as a favorite. I’ll take what I believe to be the better defense and that’s KC.
SNF
Cowboys @ Packers(-7)
I have a weird notion here that the Cowboys will win this game. But it makes no sense to pick that, so I’ll give the points and take the Packers.
MNF
Steelers @ Cincinnati(+5)
Pittsburgh is really good and the Bengals are not. I will give the points and take the Steelers.
I’ve got the Falcons (-1) tonight. Atlanta is awesome at home – 17-1 in Ryan starts. The Ravens D is good, but they can be run on and they can be passed on. Turner should be able to do some damage. On the other side, the Falcons have one of the worst pass defenses, but they stop the run very well. That means it will be up to Flacco which is no problem until the red zone. Without a running game, the ravens will struggle scoring touchdowns. The Falcons should win a close one.
Or I hope so, since I’ll be there. Whee!