Tag: Sports

I’ll have to update scores later, it’s been a long day after a long week.

Sunday 1:00
Patriots vs. Buccaneers(+15) in London
Yes, Tampa is awful, but they’re not as bad as Tennessee. Of course, the Pats beat Tennessee by a lot more than 15. I expect the Pats to run it up again.

Packers @ Cleveland(+9)
Nine seems like about the right number, so that leaves me in a quandary. I think the week off for the Packers helped. (OK, technically they didn’t have the week off, but they had the Lions at home). I like the Packers to cover the big number.

Vikings @ Pittsburgh(-5.5)
Uhh, what? The Vikings are undefeated, and the Steelers, well, they’re still trying to get it to gel. Maybe the Steelers steal it by a field goal at home, but they won’t win by this much.

Colts @ St. Louis(+14)
Doesn’t Indy get Bob Sanders back this week? Yeah, they win by three, maybe four TDs.

Chargers @ Kansas City(+5)
Hmph. I was thinking the spread would be more like three. I think the Chefs have life. They probably won’t win, but they’ll stay in it, I’ll take the points.

Niners @ Houston(-3)
Wrong team favored. The Texans don’t put together back-to-back surprises.

Sunday ~4:10
Bills @ Panthers(-7)
A touchdown? A full touchdown? Look, I agree that the Bills aren’t good, but come on—the Panthers barely squeaked by the Redskins! Just too many points not to take them.

Jest @ Oakland(+6)
I was thinking Jets by 4, not by 6. I do think the Jets will get back to a win here, but I don’t like the spread, so I’m (yikes) taking the Raiders!

Falcons @ Cowboys(-4)
WTF? The Cowboys aren’t good, the Falcons are good. Wrong team favored, I’m going Atlanta all the way here.

Saints @ Miami(+6.5)
My thought was Saints by a TD. The spread is only 6.5, so on the notion that they’ll cover by a half a point, I’ll take New Orleans.

Bears @ Cincinnati, pick
I don’t have any idea, either. Two teams who need to decide if they’re good or mediocre; I think we’ll learn something in the game. As for picking it, I have no idea. Since Al went with Chicago, I’ll riverside and go with the Bengals on the “Cedric Benson revenge theory.” <shrug>

SNF
Cardinals @ New Jersey(-7)
Arizona’s only getting a touchdown because they blew up the Seabags last week, but Seattle really isn’t good. I’ll give these points.

MNF
Eagles @ Washington(+7)
Philly will be hungry to redeem themselves after last week’s horrible performance, and the Redskins will soon be part of the dictionary definition of “dysfunctional.” Iggles big.

Ah, I see Al’s picks are up under last week’s game. I’ll copy those over here soon as well.

Ugh, last week I had my first under-.500 week, and I went 6–8. Al, of course, continued to light it up and went 10–4. That makes me 33–29 for the season and Al a blistering 44–18 for the season. I have nothing to add to this complete beating, except that all two or three of you out there who read this should bet whatever Al says and you’ll clean up. Al is the NFL Pick God this season, that’s 71% against the spread. That’s insane.

Anyway, on to the picks…

Sunday 1:00
Bengals @ Baltimore(-8.5)
Wow, that’s a lot of points. The Bengals aren’t the Bungles this year! I like Baltimore to win this game, but not by that much, so I’ll take Cinci.

Browns @ Buffalo(-6)
Both of these teams are simply awful. I’m not sure the Bills are six points better than anyone, including the hapless Browns. Too many points for me.

Redskins @ Carolina(-4)
I think the Redskins are simply worse than the Panthers, records notwithstanding. Are they five points worse? On the road, I say yes. Carolina.

Steelers @ Lions(+10.5)
Stafford is hurt so Culpepper is probably going. The spread should be like 20; Pittsburgh should have no problem covering 10.5 with Daunte starting.

Cowboys @ Kansas City(+8)
I love when the Cowboys struggle. And, given how bad they’ve been late in the season for the last few years, well, I can hardly wait to see how this train wreck finishes up. On the other hand, they’re playing a team that fired its offensive coordinator in the preseason. Give the points.

Raiders @ New Jersey Giants(+15.5)
It appears Eli will play. We know the Giants can stop the run, so for Oakland to stay in this game, they’ll have to throw a lot. Hahahahaha… yeah. Giants by two TDs… at halftime. This could easily be 42-0 with only 21 scored by the Giants’ offense. This will be ugly, ugly, ugly…

Buccaneers @ Eagles(-15.5)
Another huge spread, and another team that fired it’s offensive coordinator in the preseason that still hasn’t won a game. Eagles win this easily, but I’m actually going to take the points because I think the Eagles will only win by two TDs. Yikes.

Vikings @ St. Louis(+10.5)
Another huge spread, and another well-deserved huge spread. Vikings cover this easily, as the Rams, bad enough with their starter in, will probably be playing Kyle Boller again. Ewww.

Sunday ~4:10
Falcons @ San Francisco(-2.5)
Toughest call of the week, I’ll probably be switching between three games in the later block and may just skip the 1:00 games completely, though if I need a laugh I might dial up the Raiders-Giants. Anyway, I’m not really sure here. Go with the home team since they don’t have to lay the full three.

Texans @ Cardinals(-5.5)
Well, OK, that was a nice win last week for Houston, but come on, it was the Raiders. I don’t think the Cardinals are really all that good, but at home against the Texans does not require a team to be. Arizona.

Patriots @ Denver(+3)
Intriguing because the Pats don’t have Fred Taylor and it’s not clear how they’ll be able to run the ball against a good run D without him. Can they win being one-dimensional? With Champ Bailey back there, I’m not sure. However, it’s the mentor vs. mentee thing that makes me think the Pats will pull it out, since Big Bad Bill tends to beat up on his proteges. New England.

Jaguars @ Seattle(-1)
Ahh, the Seabags and their 12th man. Can #12 stop the run? No? Even if they can, Garrard has looked really good lately. Hasselbeck is still iffy, and we know that Seattle can’t run. Yeah, I’ll take the point.

SNF
Colts @ Tennessee(+3.5)
Err, what? How is this spread so small? Someone clearly believes that the Titans have a recovery of some kind coming. Look, let’s lay it out: Tennessee cannot, simply cannot, defend the pass. Not even a little. Manning will throw for 400+ and many TDs here. Colts by two TDs or something like it.

MNF
Jets @ Dolphins(+2)
Rex Ryan’s team can stop the run. Miami can’t pass. Lay the measly two here; I thought the spread would be more like six. No brainer.

I’m having a good season, last week I went 9–7 again and for the season I’m now 27–21, six games above .500. Not shabby. However, it’s meaningless, because Al is simply lighting it up. 13–3 last week, and now 34–14 for the season. That’s freakin’ 20 games over .500, after only three weeks. Al, this is your season to go to Vegas. Holy crap, Al, give a guy a chance. I’m doing well and I’m down 14 games. We’re going to be talking about your magic number by Halloween. However, Al did turn in a 4–10 week last year, and so I have to hope that I can keep the 9–7 going and Al will cough up a few of those… Oh, and I want a pony.

Sunday 1:00
Lions @ Chicago(-10)
Detroit had their moment in the sun last week, and the Bears seem to be figuring things out. I’m going with the home team here, but again, I’d love to see the Lions pull one out, I can’t imagine how it could happen, particularly in Chicago.

Bengals @ Cleveland(+6)
How is the spread only six? The Browns are completely horrific, and the Bengals are actually OK this year.

Raiders @ Houston(-8.5)
I know Oakland is awful, but so are the Texans. I think the home team will prevail, but not by that much—that’s just too many points. The Texans are starting some guy they signed off the street at safety. Even if Jamarcus throws directly at the Texans’ secondary, they still won’t catch it. Oakland ought to just hand off to McFadden on every play, since Houston can’t stop the run, either. Texans win, but not by nine.

Seahawks @ Indianapolis(-10)
Hasselbeck is most likely still out… Seattle has no chance whatsoever. Give the big number.

Titans @ Jacksonville(+3)
I was pretty unimpressed with both of these teams last week, but you have to figure Tennessee will get off the schnide sooner or later. I say it’s this week, but will it be by more than a FG? I say this is a push.

Giants @ Kansas City(+9)
The Chefs might not get the ball past midfield. Nine is not nearly enough.

Ravens @ New England(-1.5)
Someone in the Pats coaching staff remembered last week that it’s possible to run the football, and that worked out pretty well. However, I really think the Ravens are one of the best teams in the league. I’ll go with Baltimore, especially since Moss is dinged up.

Buccaneers @ Washington(-7.5)
Wow! I really don’t think the Redskins are more than a touchdown better than anybody, even the hapless Bucs starting a rookie QB. Again, I think they’ll win, but they won’t cover this, especially since Portis might not play.

Sunday ~4:10
Bills @ Miami, even
Were this for real money, I wouldn’t get anywhere near this game… I have absolutely no idea. I was planning on just taking whoever was the underdog figuring I could use the points—but there are no points. D’oh. Coin says… heads, and buffaloes have more impressive heads, so I’m taking the Bills. <shrug>

Jets @ New Orleans(-7)
I’m really looking forward to this game. I think the big stage and an improved Saints defense will give New Orleans the win here, but the Jets might be able to keep it close. I’m taking the team from New Jersey because it’s a full TD.

Cowboys @ Denver(+3)
Yeah, sure, Denver is 3–0 but against some of the worst competition possible the last couple of weeks. The Cowboys haven’t looked all that impressive, either, so this might actually be a game. I’ll take Dallas, though.

Rams @ San Francisco(-9.5)
Speaking of teams that might not get across midfield, we have the Lambs. I’ll give this big number as well.

SNF
Chargers @ Pittsburgh(-6.5)
Neither of these teams is right. However, the Chargers have at least shown some signs of life. I’m really not sure who will win the game, but I don’t see it as a blowout either way, so I’ll be taking these points.

MNF
Packers @ Minnesota(-3.5)
Ahh, yes, the Favre-bowl. If I watch, I’ll have to have it on mute, or the sound of the constant ESPN sucking up to Favre might cause me to start throwing up. It’s a football game between two teams, neither of which is great. The Vikings should be dominant, but they’re just not. The Packers should be good, and they’re… OK. The O-line needs work and the defense isn’t anything special. I have to say that the Vikings are just the better team and give the points, but I’m not happy about it… I almost think the Packers will pull the upset, but I just can’t pick it.

First weekend in the books, and all kinds of exciting stuff. Al and I are off to a decent start, 9–7 for me and 10–6 for Al. I still think the Giants should have covered that spread… stupid half-point.

Some storylines from week 1 that impressed me… Steelers defense looked great, we’ll see what the absence of Polamalu does. Lions still have no defense, or maybe the Saints offense really is that amazing? The Texans looked just plain horrific in pretty much every phase of the game, I take back everything good I said in the preseason. If they play like that the rest of the season they’ll be lucky to be 3–13. I think the Jets are getting overhyped, because I thought that was more the Texans being horrible than the Jets looking particularly good.

The Pats defense looked very, very shaky, and Brady didn’t look like Brady until the end. The Raiders look much improved, especially on defense. I’m not sold on the Chargers, either. Such a shame to see Cutler stink it up… I hope all his games go like that this season. Broncos looked horrible, but won anyway… good karma for getting rid of Cutler? Is Delhomme done? Is the Niners defense actually good, or is the Cardinals offense out of sync? How did the Ravens allow KC to score 24? I missed that one. AP’s run against Cleveland was sick. The Dolphins have to hold on to the ball to win; they would have at least beat the spread if they hadn’t handed Atlanta the ball so many times. The Rams appear to want to give Detroit a run for worst team; how awful did they look?

Wow, lots of stuff. I love Sunday Ticket…

Anyway, on to the Week 2 games.

Sunday 1:00
Panthers @ Atlanta(-6)
Something is horribly, horribly wrong with the Panthers. I’m staying away from them until they win one.

Vikings @ Lions(+10)
OK, look, the Vikings beat the Browns by more than this on the road… are the Lions better than the Browns? I think not. Give the points.

Saints @ Philadelphia(+1)
With McNabb either out or very, very gimpy, I’m taking the arena football team here to win.

Bengals @ Green Bay(-9)
Only nine? Really? I thought the spread would be more like 12 or 13. I’ll happily give the points.

Cardinals @ Jacksonville(-3)
Ahh, I see Vegas has no idea here, it’s that default “home team by 3” spread. The problem is that I have no idea either. I was pretty underwhelmed with the Arizona defense last week, but I had about the same reaction to the Jags’ offense.

Raiders @ Kansas City(-3)
I dunno, this feels weird… I’m picking the Raiders! I like getting points, the silver and black showed signs of life last week.

Patriots @ New Jersey Jets(+3.5)
New England has owned the Meadowlands, and I really think the Jets are not as good as everyone seems to think after last week. Now, the Patriots aren’t quite all the way back, either, especially on defense, but I expect them to do more to confuse Sanchez than the zilch the Texans threw at him, so I’ll give the points. (I can easily see losing on the half-point as the Pats kick a last-second field goal for the win…)

Texans @ Tennessee(-7)
OK, so, the Texans can’t tackle, and if the opposing defense can double-cover Johnson and still stop the run, the Texans have no answers. Titans cover handily. Should be a big day for Chris Johnson.

Rams @ Washington(-10)
St. Louis is officially on the “do not pick until something changes” list. Even against the Redskins, who showed a bit more life than I thought last week.

Sunday ~4:10
Buccaneers @ Buffalo(-4.5)
Oh, look, T.O. is already criticizing his quarterback… I thought it would take at least until October. I actually think this game will go worse for the Bills because the Bucs will try to run and hold the ball, and will keep the Bills’ defense on the field for the nearly the whole game, and will keep it within a field goal.

Seahawks @ San Francisco(-1)
There’s something about the Niners that appeals to me… they seem to really be inspired on defense. That’ll keep them in a lot of games in a weak division, despite their suspect offense. At home, I’ll give the single point.

Steelers @ Chicago(+3)
Only six? Really? The Bears are down their defensive leader… well, I guess the Steelers are too, but even without Polamalu, the Pittsburgh defense is better than Green Bay’s. Cutler isn’t what you’d call a master at reading coverage or blitzes and so I expect Pittsburgh to throw the kitchen sink at him, and while he probably won’t throw 4 picks again, I don’t see him looking good. I would have said Pittsburgh by about six here, so I’ll gladly give the points.

Browns @ Broncos(-3)
Damn, once again, neither I nor Vegas has any idea. These teams were both expected to be bad, and they both delivered on that in week 1. Denver tends to be a little better at home… I guess I’ll take the Broncos, though I don’t really have any reason to go one way or another. If this were money, I’d stay far away from this game.

Ravens @ Chargers(-3)
No LT? Against that defense? I’m not sure the right team is favored in this matchup. I’m going with Baltimore.

SNF
Giants @ Cowboys(-3)
Wrong team favored… well, maybe. It is September. Were this December, it’d clearly be the wrong team favored. I like the Giants to keep it close and maybe even pull off the upset, so I’ll take the points.

MNF
Colts @ Miami(+3)
The Dolphins are going to need more than a field goal’s worth of help against the Colts, even if Indy is missing their #2 receiver. (This was inevitable, since Gonzalez is on my fantasy team. This is what I get for picking a Buckeye.) Anyway, I’ll take Indy here.

Should be a fun week…

Off to a rip-roaring start, having predicted that the Steelers would win by three. Hopefully that’s a harbinger of the year to come…

Anyway, lines come from this page at USA Today. There are now eight lines listed; I use the mode. If there are two modes, I use the one that has a half-point in it, so that there are fewer ties.

Sunday 1:00
Dolphins @ Atlanta(-4)
I predict regression to the mean for both of these teams this season. However, I think this is particularly likely for the Falcons, who played essentially nobody good last season and were very lucky on the injury front. I like Miami to cover this.

Chefs @ Baltimore(-12.5)
Look for the hapless Chefs to finish last in the division, that is, even behind the Raiders. Yes, I think they could easily be that bad this year. The Ravens, on the other hand, should be just fine. My problem here is the number of points involved. “Run the ball and play great defense” is a formula for wins, yes, but not for a lot of NFL blowouts; this is the 2009 NFL, not Nebraska in the 1990s. That’s a lot of points, but is it too many? The Chefs might not get the ball past midfield and still only lose 12–0. Dang I hate spreads like this early in the season. They’re just daring you to pick KC, but I can’t do it. Maybe they beat the spread on an Ed Reed return or something… I hope.

Eagles @ Carolina(+2.5)
Everybody’s all excited about the Philly offense, but what about the defense? They lost their long-time coordinator and didn’t add much in the offseason, did they? How do they stop Williams and Stewart here? How healthy is Westbrook, really? This must be why the spread is less than a field goal. I just don’t know… Eagles, I guess.

Broncos @ Cincinnati(-5)
I see no compelling reason to think that the Bengals are five points better than any other NFL team, even at home. I know it’s supposed to be a down year for the Broncos, but this is the Bengals we’re talking about here. I’ll take the points.

Vikings @ Cleveland(+3.5)
I do not understand this spread at all. The Browns were a train wreck last season, and what exactly happened to suggest that they’ll be any better this year? The Vikings, on the other hand, are stacked. Their defense should be excellent. They have Adrian Peterson. As long as Favre doesn’t go pass-wacky with the deep ball into coverage, he’ll be a significant upgrade. And did I mention that they have Adrian Peterson? Minnesota by at least ten here.

Jest @ Houston(-4)
If Schaub can stay healthy—which I have doubts about—the Texans should be solid this year. Andre Johnson is an animal, Slaton looks good, etc. The only problem is the division they play in, which I think is the best top-to-bottom in football (though the NFC East has an argument here). There are no bad teams in the division, and both the Colts and Titans are just plain good teams. In most divisions, I’d say the Texans would be a playoff team this year. In the AFC South, I’m not so sure. And the Jets, well, they’ve got a new coach and a rookie QB. I say Houston covers this.

Jaguars @ Indy(-7)
Too many points. Don’t get me wrong, I think Indy is a better team overall and will win, but Bob Sanders is out, and that means the Colts are likely to be very soft against the run. Lots of MJD in this game keeps it close, so I’ll take the seven.

Lions @ New Orleans(-13.5)
This is a joke, right? The Lions were one of the worst defenses in the league last year against the pass, and the Saints were the best passing offense. I’d give 18 here, easy.

Dallas @ Tampa(+5.5)
The Cowboys have started well lately, it’s just the end-of-season tanking which has done them in. Tampa has the possibility of being really, really awful this year and even if they’re OK, I expect a slow start. Dallas covers.

Sunday 4:15
Niners @ Arizona(-6)
Perhaps the bookies missed this, but the Cards were in the Super Bowl last year, and they still have most of that offense intact. The big move for the Niners was drafting a guy who is already a hopeless prima donna (and apparently has a room-temperature IQ; how can he possibly think he’ll be drafted higher next year after holding out?) and hasn’t signed yet. Frank Gore is OK but that is, I think, the entire SF offense. The Cards cover this; I’d still give six if the game were in Candlestick (err, whatever it’s called now), but it’s in Phoenix so this is a no-brainer.

Redskins @ New Jersey(-6.5)
The Giants still have no credible deep threat, and with Ward gone to Tampa, it’s not clear who will spell Jacobs, who is in for a beating this year (though he may well be up to it). On the other hand, the G-men should be stout on defense. I kind of missed what the Redskins did this off-season, which probably means they didn’t do much; their pattern is to pay way too much for veterans who are past their prime and to have crappy drafts because they trade away most of their picks to acquire such players. Anyway, the upshot of all this is that I think the Giants will win, though I’m not sure if a full TD is too much. Since I can’t see how Ports won’t face eight or nine in the box on every play and I have no idea how the Redskins can pass their way out of that, I will give the points.

Rams @ Seattle(-8)
The Seabags are the popular pick for team most likely to be a lot better this year. New WR, healthy QB, etc. They might be better on that basis, but unless they do something about their defense, their O-line, and their running game, they still won’t be good. On the other hand, the Rams were awful and I don’t see why to expect them to be anything but awful again this year. I’ll give the points, though I’m worried this is a 1-TD game.

SNF
Bears @ Green Bay(-4.5)
The Bears are the media darlings this year, but I have an aversion to me-first whiners like Cutler and other than Forte, I’m not sure I can name any other Chicago offensive player (Devin Hester doesn’t count, he’s really a special teamer, or should be). They’re still the Bears on the other side of the ball, sure, but this is a defense that’s starting to get old and it seems like they always have somebody hurt. On the other hand, I’m not sure I can name anybody who plays for the Packer defense at all, so there is that. But I sure can name the guys on the Packer offense: Rodgers, Jennings, Driver, Grant… not shabby. And it’s in Lambeau, though it’s too early for any meaningful “frozen tundra” effects. Still, I think defenses have the advantage early in the season, and that says Bears to me, so I’ll take the points.

MNF
Bills @ New England(-10.5)
In the last ten games between these two teams, the Bills are 0-10 with a lot of bad showings. I expect Brady and the Pats to come out guns blazing to make a statement, so I will give the points.

Chargers @ Oakland(+9.5)
The Chargers are a popular Super Bowl pick for the AFC (along with the Pats), but I may never be sold on any team headed by Norv Turner, who has a career regular-season winning percentage of 44.8%. Oh, wait, they’re playing the Raiders on the West Coast. One could make the argument that the Raiders are the worst-run franchise in sports, though of course the Nationals, Lions, Bengals, and Timberwolves have compelling arguments here. Yeah, OK, Bolts cover.

Good luck, Al!

OMFG, football is back. <cue Hallelujah chorus>

I don’t know what it was this year, but the break seemed especially long. I guess at some point I need a post on my Fantasy team, but that’ll have to wait. For now, just be glad football is back, baby.

A fresh year. I’m 0-0, as is Al. Based on previous experience, it’s all downhill from here…

Titans @ Pittsburgh(-6)
That’s a tidy sum of points for the opening week. I think the defending champs are overall the better team, but I’m not so sure that translates immediately into huge margins of victory. In fact, when I looked at this matchup before seeing the spread I said “Steelers by a field goal.” So, in the spirit of the first night being exciting and close, I’m going to take the points.

Can’t wait for Sunday…

In case anyone out there has been living under a rock lately, the NFL is about to finish the season (sniff) and play that Super Bowl thing that they do. The end of the season—nooooooooo!!! Man, the prospect of seven months with no football is always daunting.

For the teams, there’s a lot on the line. The Cards can end their 61-year drought. The Steelers can become the only franchise to win 6 Super Bowls. But what’s on the line for me and Al? Well, not a lot.

Now, I was a little under .500 for the season before the last round of bowls and the playoffs. But I went 9-3 in the last round of bowl games and so far I’m 8-2 in the playoffs—that’s a serious roll for me. Al went 7-5 in the last round of bowls and is 5-5 in the playoffs. Now, if we drop both of our best and worst week of the NFL regular season, I am now a combined 138-125-7 and Al is 126-136-7. If we include all picks, I’m 153-139-7, or +14 for the season and Al is 136-142-7, or -8 for the season. So, no matter how you slice it, the Super Bowl won’t be the deciding factor, I’ve got the season locked up.

Nonetheless, we should still pick the big game.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers(-6.5)
Obviously, the big story is the Cardinals’ big-play offense vs. the Steelers’ top-ranked defense. Frankly, my take on this is that those two factors will mostly cancel each other out; I don’t think the Steelers will stop ‘em, but nor will the Cards roll it up big, I see the Cardinals scoring a pretty normal total, somewhere in the high teens to low 20s. So, how much will the Steelers score? Well, frankly, I’m not that impressed with the Cardinals defense. It’s certainly not better than the Ravens’ defense or the Chargers’ defense, and the Steelers did OK against both of them. Yes, they got a special teams TD against the Bolts and an interception return against Baltimore, but overall I just like the Steelers’ offense better than the Cards’ defense.

Plus, there’s the Willie Parker rule. I mean, really, why stop now?

Once again, last week I went 3-1. This is major news, as my track record in the playoffs is, let’s face it, horrific. However, last week the only game I missed was the Carolina-Arizona game, and seriously, who got that right? Well, OK, ten points is a lot, so probably a lot of people took them, but I don’t think anybody had the Cards winning by 20.

Al went 2-2, so the outcome is determined for this year, but I’m not going to let that stop me since I’m on such a roll. Of course, looking at these picks, I have no idea, so the roll may end here, but whatever… However, I am now thinking jerseys. Eagles = Westbrook, Cards = Fitzgerald, Ravens = Reed, Steelers = Woodley. Yeah. And I’ll have my Big Ben jersey from a couple years ago on display on Sunday, too.

Sunday 3:00
Eagles @ Arizona(+3.5)
Westbrook is questionable, Runyan is beat up, Dawkins is nicked up, but then Boldin might not be back, either—not that it stopped them last week. The Cardinals have been underdogs but won both of their last two playoff games. They’re great at home, and somehow have managed to get a home playoff game after the first round. And they’ve been running the ball. Of course, the Eagles have looked pretty good as well, but frankly, the Vikings have no QB and the Giants still seem discombobulated without Plax. Back on the other hand, I can’t quite get that Thanksgiving beating out of my head, though I still think the Cards were sandbagging since they had the division in hand. Ah, screw it, I’m taking the favorite in the next game—give me the points, maybe the Cards can keep it within a field goal and I’ll squeak by with a half-point win here.

Sunday 6:30
Ravens @ Pittsburgh(-5.5)
Neither team has a clear advantage in terms of defense, as they’re both terrific defenses, though I’d say the Ravens have been playing a little better D of late. On the other hand, the Steelers have a lot more on the other side of the ball. The Ravens really got bailed out by all the turnovers the Titans made last week. While the turnovers didn’t result in points for the Ravens, they sure took the pressure off Flacco and the Baltimore running game, while the Steelers were on cruise control in their contest. Of course, the Steelers were at home against a much worse team than the Titans, but nonetheless, Parker looked like he’s really 100%, and that’s huge for the Steelers. So, since I’ve been riding the Willie Parker Rule all season, and he looks back to form, I feel obligated to give the points. Frankly, I see this as a field goal game and I should be taking the points, but rules are rules and I’m sticking to mine. Plus I’ll be rooting for the Steelers anyway…

So, for a change, I went 3-1 last week, which is amazing, because I’m usually horrific in the playoffs. Al, on the other hand, went 1-3. Oops. I watched the Vikings-Eagles game with a hard-core Vikings fan, and I was rooting for the Vikings, too, and I have to say, we both just wanted to cover our eyes every time Jackson dropped back. Look, the Vikes have a very solid D and a great running game. All they need is an average quarterback and they’d be fine. TJ isn’t even that. Ugh, but I did get the pick right…

Saturday 4:30
Ravens @ Tennessee(-3)
The pundits are all loving Baltimore here, but the Titans didn’t exactly suck this year, either. I had no idea what to do with this game until I saw this stat: “Underdog is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 meetings.” Yowza. OK, I’ll get on the bandwagon and take the points.

Saturday ~8:15
Cardinals @ Carolina(-10)
I’m watching EPSN right now, and John Clayton said that Boldin will be a game-time decision, but even if he plays, he’ll be limited. That’s doom for a crappy road team against an amazing and well-rested home team.

Sunday 1:00
Eagles @ New Jersey Giants(-4)
They split for the season, the Iggles are hot, the Giants still don’t have Plax… I dunno, I think the Giants will probably win, but this feels like a field goal game to me. I’ll take the points and hope for a nail-biter.

Sunday ~4:15
Chargers @ Pittsburgh(-6)
OK, so I think I’ve picked the Steelers right almost all season long with the Willie Parker rule. I’m sticking with that, though this is just as much about LT being out. I know Sproles was great last week, but Pittsburgh defends the run more than a little bit better than the Colts, methinks. Stillers.

So, through Week 17 and Part 2 of the bowls, I’m 127-129-7 and Al is 124-132-7, though I still have a +4 week in the bank—we’ll have to work that out at some point. Al suggested throwing out the high and low weeks, which might be a good idea. We’ll see.

Anyway, last week was quite something. The Bucs threw away a playoff berth by blowing a game to the Raiders (sound familiar, Jets, Broncos?), the Jets blew it to the Dolphins, and in one of my favorites, the Cowboys ended their season getting their asses handed to them by a division foe, who snuck into the playoffs as a result. Frankly, I would have preferred the Bucs to win so that the stupid tie would have cost the Eagles the playoffs, but oh well.

Anyway, we have a weird thing this weekend: all the road teams are favored! I guess that seems not entirely unreasonable, as we have all the sucky division winners going up against teams which actually earned their way in on the strength of their overall record. Or something. The Falcons and the Colts do have somewhat better records than their opponents, anyway.

Saturday 4:30
Falcons @ Arizona(+1)
Atlanta is a little dinged up, I guess, and the Cardinals aren’t. What makes this a tough game to pick, though, is that Warner’s crew is 7-1 at home and the Falcons are 4-4 on the road. This would be a no-brainer if the game were in Atlanta… but since it isn’t, I’m not so sure. I’ll be rooting for the Falcons but the rookie QB on the road thing has me concerned, so I’m going to take Arizona here, presumably also to riverside you.

Saturday 8:00
Colts @ San Diego(+1)
This, on the other hand, seems like a more straightforward pick. Norv Turner in the playoffs vs. Tony Dungy in the playoffs. I know the Chargers have been hot lately, but the Colts are blazing. Especially with LT and Gates both dinged up, I’ll give the point.

Sunday 1:00
Ravens @ Miami(+3)
Also interesting, because a lot of the Ravens are banged up while the Dolphins are healthy. Also, I’m not so sure about Flacco in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Ravens have been money against the spread this year and the Dolphins not so much. I guess I’ll go with that.

Sunday 4:30
Eagles @ Minnesota(+3)
If Pat Williams were healthy, this would make the Iggles one-dimensional, and thus I might have to think harder about going with the Vikings. But the Vikings still have Tarvaris Jackson at the helm, and despite the recent success, here is where it will matter. He’ll throw an inopportune pick and Philly will cover.