Tag: Sports

OMFG, the NFL is back. Hallelujah!

Vikings @ New Orleans(-5.5)
I don’t think either one of these teams will be as good this year as they were last year. For the Vikings, the receiver situation is still shaky at best. Rice was huge for them last year and now Harvin is questionable, too, and it seems unlikely that Favre can keep it down to 7 picks again. Unless Childress is smart enough to call AP’s name more often (and Favre is humble enough not to audible out of it all the time), I don’t think the Vikings will be the offensive force. Similarly, I can’t see the Saints defense holding up as well as they did last year. Felt like smoke and mirrors some of the time, and while they got it done when it really mattered, I foresee some regression to the mean this time around. I expect the Vikings’ decrement to be slightly larger than the Saints, so I will give the points.

Damn it’ll be good to have the NFL back again…

We both took the Colts on Thursday and the Saints on Saturday… oops.

Sunday 1:00
Patriots at Buffalo(+7)
I don’t like the Pats on the road this season. I think they’ll probably win because they really need to, but that’s too many points.

Cardinals @ Detroit(+14)
I think that Arizona does have something to play for: erasing the memory of last week to build momentum for the playoffs. The Lions’ defense can’t stop anything, I like the Cards to light it up.

Browns @ Kansas City(-2)
Cleveland has shown signs of life lately, and I don’t like the idea of the Chefs giving points.

Falcons @ New Jersey Jets(-7)
Atlanta on the road in a game that means nothing to them and everything to the Jets? Give the points.

Texans @ St. Louis(-14)
How bad is the NFC West? I saw the Texans absolutely light up the Seahawks last week; that game was actually way worse than the score. However, the Texans still can’t stop the run, and the Rams will run, and… err, I have to try to catch up somewhere, so I’ll take the points and hope my boys only win by 10.

Dolphins @Tennessee(-5)
Miami needs this game, I’ll take the points.

Sunday ~4:10
Forty-Niners @ Philadelphia(-7.5)
If all you can do is pass, the Niners can defend that. Oh, look, it’s the Eagles. Yeah, take the points.

Raiders @ Denver(-14)
The Raiders lost Gradkowski, who was the source of their looking decent again. Broncos will stomp all over them.

Bengals @ San Diego(-7)
Tough week for Cinci. They don’t really need the game and I’m taking the Bolts all December until they give me reason to go otherwise.

Bears @ Baltimore(-11)
Is Ed Reed back yet? I’m not sure the Ravens are really that good (beating up on the Lions shows nothing) until Reed gets back. On the other hand, Chicago is plain awful. OK, give the points.

Packers @ Pittsburgh(-2)
Wrong team favored! The Packers are much better than Pittsburgh. Gotta love getting points here.

Buccaneers @ Seattle(-6.5)
The Seabags are really, really bad. I can only begin to tell you how awful their offense looked last week in person. But you know what? The Bucs are even worse, and are on the road. I’ll take Seattle.

SNF
Vikings @ Carolina(+9)
Now that the Saints have lost, the Vikings need to keep on the pressure to hope for home field. Give the points.

MNF
Giants @ Washington(+3)
The Giants have no defense, even the Redskins will be able to move the ball on them. Plus, the Redskins have a real defense. I like getting points here.

I always forget about these games…

Steelers @ Cleveland(+9.5)
Ten? Really? Wow, well, that’s… too much, that’s what that is. I mean sure, the Stillers will probably get off the schnide and win this game, but right now they’re pointing fingers at each other and Hines Ward is out. That doesn’t have “blowout” written on it, and the Cleveland D is respectable. I’m taking the points.

OK, I’m recovering from surgery so I’ll save the record updates for next week.

Sunday 1:00
Eagles @ Atlanta(+5.5)
Is Ryan better? I don’t know for sure but I hear not. Given that, I don’t think the Falcons have enough, since they certainly don’t have the defense.

Buccaneers @ Carolina(-5)
I’m actually going to take the points here because the Panthers are banged up and the Bucs are playing a little better.

Rams @ Chicago(-9.5)
Stephen Jackson is the #2 runner in the league and the Bears are in a tailspin. I don’t think the Rams win, but I think they can at least be in this game… err, wait. Kyle Boller is still starting for St. Louis. Take Chicago.

Lions @ Cincinnati(-13)
Detroit is horrific, give two TDs no problem.

Titans @ Indianapolis(-6.5)
Toughest game on the board. The Colts have been able to pull it out every time but the Titans are playing good enough football to give the Colts s a real test, but I think the Colts will win in the end. However, will they win by a full TD? I think they’ll win by exactly the seven they need.

Texans @ Jacksonville(+2)
I’ll be astonished if Houston really still has the will after the heartbreak of the last two weeks. I think they’ll just play out the streak and won’t put up much of a fight against the Jags ground attack.

Broncos @ Kansas City(+6)
I think the Broncos have new life after winning convincingly last week and they have something to play for, so I’ll give the points.

Raiders @ Pittsburgh(-14.5)
That’s too many points. The Raiders won’t win this game but the Steelers are just not that good this season.

Saints @ Washington(+9.5)
Give the points. The Saints are on fire and need to keep pace with the Vikings and showed that they have everything they need to blow out good teams, much less bad teams like the Redskins.

Sunday ~4:10
Chargers @ Cleveland(+13.5)
Give the points, the Browns are a train wreck and the Chargers also need this game because the Broncos are back alive.

Cowboys @ New Jersey Giants(+1.5)
As much as I would love to see the Giants win this game, I can’t pick it that way.

Niners @ Seattle(+1)
San Francisco is a better team, but the Seabags are at home where they’re a tougher out. I don’t think it will be enough, though, so I’ll go with the Niners.

SNF
Vikings @ Arizona(+3.5)
So, what about Warner? Ach, it doesn’t matter, the Vikings will cover this.

MNF
Ravens @ Green Bay(-3.5)
I don’t like this game because it could go either way. The Packers have been getting slightly better outcomes of late despite their offensive line and I’m not sure what’s wrong with the Ravens. This is a big game for both teams, too, with playoff hopes on the line. I like the Ravens to step up, even if it is in Lambeau.

Yes, it’s that time of year again, time for turkey-induced slumber. Fortunately the Lions won’t be on TV around the time we’ll be eating—seeing them can really ruin your appetite.

12:30
Packers @ Detroit(+11)
I think Stafford is out. I think even if he weren’t I’d give the 11, but now there’s no doubt.

4:15
Raiders @ Dallas(-13.5)
Aww, come on, didn’t the Raiders just beat the Bengals? And didn’t the Cowboys just look like crap even though they won? Well, OK, we should be sensitive to more than one week of history… but man, that’s just too many points for me. Gulp. I guess I’m actually picking the Raiders. Yikes.

8:20
Giants @ Denver(+7)
That just feels like too many points; should the Giants really be giving seven on the road? Err, well, watch any of the last couple Broncos games and I guess it’s not that hard to see. I hate giving that many points, but I just don’t see how Denver is going to extract themselves from the current death spiral.

Time for a long-overdue standings update. Week 9 was a complete disaster: I went 5-8 and Al went 8-5, putting me further in the hole. Week 10 went better, as I went 8-7, which is still not great, but Al put up a 6-9 week, so in the last two weeks… I still lost ground. Dammit. For the season I’m still under .500 at 70-73-1 and Al is way out in front, 82-61-1. Yikes. There’s barely enough season left to do anything with that, not good at all.

Oh well, on to the picks…

Sunday 1:00
Colts @ Baltimore(+1.5)
Indy is the team of destiny… or something. They shouldn’t have won last week, but they did. The charmed life continues, and with only 1.5 to give, I’ll give it.

Redskins @ Dallas(-11)
Washington has been playing great defense lately, but their offense… yech. What will Dallas do with this? I don’t see them losing, but that’s a lot of points against a good defense. I have to take them.

Browns @ Detroit(-3.5)
Cleveland is so bad it’s comical. Brady Quinn has no idea where his receivers are. Even the Lions, who are also completely bad, should be able to handle this. The real losers here, however, are the folks who paid money to watch it live…

Niners @ Green Bay(-6.5)
Lotta points for a team that cannot protect the quarterback. On the other hand, how awful is the SF offense right now? I don’t see them going east for an early game and then somehow playing decent offense. Packers.

Bills @ Jacksonville(-8.5)
Buffalo, besides being awful and having no coach, cannot stop the run. And the Jags’ best weapon is… a running back. This could get ugly. Jags all the way.

Steelers @ Kansas City(+10)
Tomlin will be reading the Stillers the riot act all week after that awful showing against the Bengals. They’ll pound the hapless Chefs.

Seahawks @ Minnesota(-10.5)
Seattle is bad enough when they play at home, but on the road they’re craptacular. Vikings by two TDs.

Falcons @ New Jersey [Giants](-7)
Will Turner play? Even if he does, will he be 100% or even close? Ryan has looked a little worse this year, overall, and without a running game to take of the pressure, the Falcons might not be very good. However, and this is a big one… uhh, have people been watching the Giants lately? Poster child for “not very good”? Yeah, this is too many points.

Saints @ Tampa(+10.5)
New Orleans beat the Falcons by only 10 at home, then proceeded to lay a stinker against the Rams. Yeah, they still won, but we’re talking about the Rams. Two conjectures: (1) The Saints’ pass defense is better than their run defense, and running up big scores has allowed them to hide this; (2) Darren Sharper has been hurt, and he means a lot to that defense. However, Sharper is listed as “probable” which almost always means “playing,” and Tampa can’t run anyway. Saints cover.

Sunday ~4:10
Cardinals at St. Louis(+9)
The Rams have actually been a little bit better lately, but Warner is clicking with his receivers again so they will steamroll the Lambs.

Chargers @ Denver, no line
The Broncos appear to be in a death spiral right now, don’t they? Never good when you’ve let teams like the Chargers back in. Recent history also indicates that the Chargers are a good bet in divisional games in the second half of the season, so I’m going with the Bolts.

Jets @ New England(-10.5)
OK, I have to comment on last weeks’ Pats game, which was at a minimum a very exciting football game, but definitely a story of two halves. The Pats looked like they were just on cruise control the first half; the Colts appeared to have no answers. But in the second half, especially the 4th quarter, the Pats defense looked confused and, frankly, gassed. They should have won that game. Something just isn’t quite right there yet, and I’m not willing to lay the big number, even though the Jets have been the Jest again lately.

Bengals @ Oakland(+9.5)
This has “blowout” written all over it. Give the big number.

SNF
Eagles at Chicago(+3)
Denver’s management doesn’t look so stupid now, do they? They’ll look even better when they cash in the draft picks. To quote an old favorite movie, Cutler might have a million-dollar arm, but he’s got a fifty-cent head, and the Bears have no Crash Davis to fix this one up. Iggles.

MNF
Titans @ Houston(-4.5)
Remember when I picked the Texans vs. the Colts, and I took the Texans because I figured they had to keep it close enough so that they could lose it in some heartbreaking way, and they obliged by missing the game-tying field goal? Stay tuned to that channel, Texans fans. VY has given them fits in the past and they’ll be overconfident going into this game given that they won the first one and aren’t well-coached enough not to have that attitude. I really, really hope the Texans pull this out, but there is no way I am giving these points.

Dolphins @ Carolina(-3)
Carolina’s been playing a lot better lately and the centerpiece of Miami’s offense is out. That makes it about even, and of course the Panthers are giving three at home, meaning nobody else knows, either. I’m never happy with teams that have just lost their main man, so I’ll give the points.

Gotta do this fast, I’m on the road…

Thursday 8pm
Bears at Niners (-3)
We did this one by email, I thought the Bears were reeling and would look awful… and I was right.

Sunday 1pm
Falcons at Panthers (+1.5)
I don’t get this. The Falcons are good and the Panthers… aren’t. Seems like the spread should be like 5 or 6 here. Atlanta.

Buccaneers at Dolphins (-10)
How bad are the Bucs? Pretty awful. But ten sure is a big number… but the Bucs defense is awful, I’ll give the ten.

Lions at Vikings (-16.5)
Wow, that’s a lot of points. Vikings are looking good, though, and the Lions lost to the Rams at home in recent memory. I’ll go with Minny.

Jaguars at Jets (-7)
I expect the Jets to win, but that’s too many points.

Bengals at Steelers (-7)
WAAAY too many points. Cinci might even win this game. I’ll take the Bengals.

Saints at Rams (+14)
New Orleans by double this, maybe 28-0 at halftime.

Bills at Titans (-8)
Yes, the Titans are playing a lot better, but 8? Seems a little extreme, I’ll take the points.

Broncos at Redskins (+3.5)
Washington is horrific, I’m going with Denver.

Sunday ~4:10pm
Chiefs at Raiders (-2)
Raiders have been awful, Chefs have been awful, this is a wash. However, the spread is less than three for the home team, so I’ll give the points.

Seahawks at Cardinals (-9)
Arizona has been playing well lately, and Seattle is kind of all over the place. I don’t think the Seabags can really cover the Cards’ receivers, and Warner has been playing well, so I think the Cards cover this.

Cowboys at Packers (+3)
Packers are fading, Cowboys are surging, gotta take Dallas here, as much as it pains me.

Eagles at Chargers (-1)
I hate both of these teams in that they’re both wildly inconsistent. The Chargers aren’t very good against the run but the Eagles don’t run. Horrible game to pick. Chargers?

SNF
Patriots at Colts (-2.5)
The Colts have been having to eek out close games the last couple weeks and the Pats have been hitting their stride. This is the big test. I like the Pats here.

MNF
Ravens at Browns (+11)
Yes, it’s a lot of points, but this is the Browns we’re talking about. Might be the worst TV ratings for MNF all year. Easily give the points in what should be a laugher.

OK, so I messed up the record two weeks ago, Al actually had 5 right, not 4. Not that it matters, though, because last week I stunk it up and went 4-9 and dropped below .500 for the season, while Al went a respectable 7-8. Al’s lead is huge and growing, 68-47-1 to 57-58-1. Ugh.

I’ll just get on with the picks then, shall I?

Sunday 1pm
Redskins at Falcons(-10)
Washington continues to be a train wreck. While the Falcons showed last week they still can’t quite hang with the big boys, they should have no trouble with the Redskins; give the points.

Cardinals at Bears(-3)
Two inconsistent teams and Vegas has no idea what to do… home team by three. I hate the way the Cardinals play on the road, so I’ll give the three.

Ravens at Bengals(+3)
Rematch games are always tricky. You know Baltimore wants a pound of flesh for the last meeting and they sure looked good last week. However, I’m not sure about giving three on the road. Well, when you’re behind like I am, you gotta take chances—I’ll give the points.

Texans at Colts(-9)
Lots of people seem high on the Texans right now, and they’ve earned a bit of respect on the current streak. However, don’t think for a second the Colts don’t know this, and that they won’t be ready. The Texans have a horrible history against the Colts and I expect them to rip the heart out of all of us once again. However, getting blown out will not be a heartbreaker—the Texans will lose this one in some horrible way, just like the Sage Rosenfels game last year… but I don’t think they’ll get blown out, so I’m taking the points.

Chiefs at Jaguars(-6.5)
The Jags are reeling right now—they seem like they should be a lot better. KC sucks, too, but I’m not sure the Jags should be laying almost a TD against anybody right now.

Packers at Buccaneers(+10)
Tampa cannot, just cannot, defend the pass at all. The Packers’ offensive line is shaky, but in this game they most certainly don’t have to be solid for them to have a big day. Huge blowout here.

Dolphins at Patriots(-10.5)
Man, that’s a lot of points. On the other hand, facing the Pats when they’ve had two weeks to prepare and get people healthy is not good. Plus, after being torched the first time they faced the wildcat—don’t think the Pats have forgotten about that—the Pats have handled it pretty easily since. I don’t like giving this many, but I think I have to.

4pm
Panthers at Saints(-14)
The Panthers are just simply awful. Look, they can give the Saints’ offense the week off and still win by 14. Jake “Pick” Delhomme will probably throw enough picks returned for TDs that Brees can sit this one out, and I don’t think that Brees will sit this one out. The Saints are on a mission to lock up home field for the playoffs and they want to keep the Vikings at bay for that spot. They’ll roll huge.

Lions at Seahawks(-10)
If you can’t beat the Rams at home, you just straight-up suck, badly. Give the ten.

Chargers at Giants(-4.5)
Well, this is getting down to put up or shut up time for these two teams. When the rubber meets the road, you can always count on one thing: the Chargers are coached by Norv Turner. I’m taking the G-men.

Titans at 49ers(-4.5)
I think Tennessee caught the Jags napping last week. That won’t happen this week; the Niners gave the Colts a real game and they know they’re better than Tennessee. They’ll handle them by a TD.

SNF
Cowboys at Eagles(-3)
Yes, yes, the Cowboys have won a couple in a row and now everybody’s drooling over them. Well, let’s seem them do it on the road. Iggles.

MNF
Steelers at Broncos(+3)
In general, I like teams coming off the bye. Guys get healthy and coaches have an extra week of film to look at and plan against. Tomlin is no dummy and he’ll follow the Ravens’ blueprint from last week: get after Orton hard and go vertical. Denver is still a good team, so I expect them to respond, but I think the Steelers will pull it out… by about a field goal. Argh. I would give this without thought at 2 and I’d probably take it if it were 4. Argh. OK, I’ll take the Stillers coming off the bye.

Slowly, very slowly, I’m gaining ground. In week 6 I went 7–7 and Al went 5–9, and in week 7 I went 7–5–1 and Al had another down week at 4–8–1. I’m only down seven games! For the season I’m still above even at 53–49–1 and Al’s blistering start has him at 60–42–1. I like the trend! If I gain an average of 2.5 games per week, I’ll catch Al in a mere three more weeks… ha, ha.

Sunday 1:00
Broncos @ Baltimore(-3)
What exactly do the Broncos have to do to get some respect? How are they underdogs, even on the road? I’m taking Denver.

Texans @ Buffalo(+3.5)
I think I’m like 0-7 on picking the Texans this year, so Al should just go against anything I pick. The Texans might have trouble offensively because while the Bills aren’t very good against the run, the Texans don’t run. Will it be windy? If the Texans have to run to win, I’m worried, since Steve Slaton has more fumbles lost than any NFL team this year. With Andre Johnson probable but hurt, putting even more pressure on the Houston ground game, I’m going to have to go with the Bills.

Browns @ Chicago(-13)
I have little doubt the Bears will win this. But will they blow the Browns out? I mean, they looked like complete ass last week against Cincinnati… but this it at home, and the Browns are simply horrific. Give the points.

Seahawks @ Dallas(-9.5)
I don’t know what to do with this one. The Cowboys have more talent, but it certainly seems like a lot of points. Can the Cowboys actually put together two big wins in a row? Well, since the Seahawks secondary is nicked up, and they’ve been pretty bad on the road over the last few years. OK, I’ll take Dallas.

Dolphins @ New Jersey Jets(-3)
Beating up on the Raiders is not impressive. Can the Jets stop the run? I’m not so sure. Mostly to riverside Al, I’m taking Miami.

Niners @ Indianapolis(-13)
Is there any reason to think the freight train that is the Colts will be derailed this week? Nothing that I can see.

Giants @ Philadelphia(+1)
This is the kind of game the Eagles blow because they forget to run the ball. I’ll give the point.

Rams @ Detroit(-4)
Here’s something I haven’t thought for a long, long time: the Lions are just better. Wow.

Sunday ~4:10
Raiders @ San Diego(-16.5)
Wow, that’s a lot of points. Apparently the logic is that the Chargers blew out the Chefs last week and the Raiders got blown out last week. But really, for the season, the Chargers haven’t been very good against the spread. I’m going to got a bit nutty and take the big pile of points…

Jaguars @ Tennessee(-3)
WTF? Didn’t these teams play a few weeks ago? Didn’t the Jags beat the Titans senseless? How is Tennessee favored here? Do people think Vince Young is the answer? Really? Unless he’s playing CB and/or safety, I don’t see how that’s going to help enough. Take the points.

Vikings @ Green Bay(-3)
You know, the Vikings should be a really dominant team. Yes, sure, they’ve only lost once, but they mostly haven’t been blowing folks away… except the Packers a few weeks ago. Well, this time the Vikings have a much worse secondary and the Packers o-line has looked better of late, so I’m going to be bold and lay the points.

Panthers @ Arizona(-10)
Carolina is horrific. Ten is kind of a lot, but the Cards defense might score ten all by itself, so I don’t think it’s too much.

MNF
Falcons @ New Orleans(-10.5)
The Saints got a scare last week and will be ready. The Falcons got embarrassed on the road and they’ll be up for a division game. Again, though, I think the Saints are just better, and they seem to play inspired at home, so I’ll give the big number again.